Donald
Trump has shaken up the political scene. But his candidacy may be
more about the American people than only the Republican presidential
nomination.
Trump
defies all the usual expectations. He makes statements that are
easily proved untrue. He bluntly attacks Muslims, Mexicans, women,
the media and his opponents. His tactics, usually presented in an
almost affable style, get massive free coverage.
He
exudes supreme self-confidence. No matter what he says, his
popularity persists.
Trump
tops the polls, essentially leading the GOP pack for months. In
fact, his aura may depend on his relatively high poll standings.
It’s not clear if he would fade out if his poll standing slides or
he loses a primary.
With
questionable polling and a still-crowded GOP field, we may not yet
know how well Trump is doing with the voters. And if he is doing
well, what does his success say about the voters and the political
temperament of the country?
The
answer to the first question will begin to emerge in a month. While
the February 1 Iowa caucus participants are hardly representative of
voters across the country and probably not even in Iowa, the pundits
will surely analyze caucus result for sweeping insights.
By
March 1, there will have been enough primaries to let his opponents
know if Trump really is the candidate to beat. Just two more months
to wait.
From
the outset, his opponents have suggested he cannot win the GOP
nomination, because he offends too many people. Even if he is
nominated, Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, is said to
be ecstatic at having such an easy opponent to beat in the general
election.
Most
of his competitors and many media analysts assume that Trump’s
actions and statements are out of line with “traditional American
values.” They argue that most voters will show they stick to these
values when they stop responding to pollsters and start voting.
His
opponents and critics believe that regular voters will turn out and
reject him. Besides, if Trump appeals to people who have usually
been on the political sidelines, it is not certain they will show up
at caucuses and primaries.
The
possibility that primary voters will back Trump and ignore the
proclaimed traditional American values is underlying the concern
about his candidacy. He can only succeed if enough people believe in
him as a possible president, even if they understand his message is
more bluster than real substance.
Heralded
traditional American values may not be all that traditional. Take
immigration. The American political scene has always included many
who oppose accepting new immigrants with different backgrounds from
their own. For example, from 1882 to 1943, federal law excluded
Chinese immigrants.
Are
people worried about the coming change in the composition of the
population that will yield a country in which the majority is
composed of people of color and not people who look like themselves
or Trump?
In
the past few decades, the country has changed. Federal laws now
require the equal treatment of people, including immigrants, based on
a wide range of possible characteristics. Though this equality is
not reliably honored, equal treatment has become a traditional
American value.
Also,
from the beginning of the Twentieth Century, Americans have been
accustomed to a bold foreign policy, fostering the belief that the
U.S. can take whatever action it wants in the world and other nations
must fall in line. Even if, at times, this belief has been based
more on tough talk than on fact, it’s traditional.
However,
instead of believing America can impose its will on other countries,
the U.S. now participates in many international organizations and
agreements. It actively seeks to form “coalitions” to pursue
common objectives. Other countries do not automatically follow the
U.S. lead.
Trump
says he wants to “make America great again.” That seems to mean
he promises to restore the policies and actions of an earlier period
of American history. To do that, he faces the massive task of
gaining the help of Congress and a broad national consensus.
Possibly,
he is merely stroking those longing for a way of life and world power
that is disappearing. Even if the change to a nation with no
dominant racial and religious group and the recognition of limits on
American power are inevitable, Trump may make some people feel better
about their country.
The
electoral process will tell us if Trump has staying power. Perhaps
more importantly, it may tell us about the values, hopes and fears of
the American people.
No comments:
Post a Comment