More thoughts on the campaign -- 3

Trump. He's still considered the frontrunner and the likely nominee, but he seems to be losing some momentum. (Update: wrong on that one.) To stop him, the GOP would have to find an alternative, a process slowly happening.

Cruz. He's the likely alternative, because he is picking up delegates. But he may turn out to be no more appealing to many Republicans. He is more conservative than Trump (when you can figure out Trump's positions) and is totally unwilling to compromise with anybody. To watch: if the combined Trump-Cruz delegates are a convention majority, one of them will be the nominee. Trump delegates should be able to support Cruz, but probably nobody else.

Rubio. Must win in Florida to avoid having to drop out, but he is not attracting enough support to make it all the way. Objective must be to depart in a favorable enough light to run again.

Kasich. Substitute “Ohio” for “Florida” and the picture is the same as for Rubio. But he could take VP (not likely) or cabinet slot.

Ryan. The all-purpose savior. But it is difficult to see how most delegates already elected could move in his direction. His only path may be an open convention. But it is far more probable that a deal will be made pre-convention that will avoid carrying the battle to the floor.

Bloomberg. As forecast, he did a careful, non-ego-driven analysis. He is sane enough to know that, if Clinton were the Democratic nominee, he could hand the election to Trump or Cruz. So he backed off. His thinking about the choice going to the House for decision was a bit fanciful.

Clinton. She will have to continue to focus on Sanders, when she would rather be running the fall campaign early. Unless she is deserted by the superdelegates because of an embarrassing revelation, she has the nomination. If they did desert her, it would not be for Sanders.

Sanders. Appeals to voters the Democrats need. Much depends on how he leads his supporters at the moment he must concede. Meanwhile, he forces Clinton to be a better candidate.

The media. Mostly lemmings. Gene McCarthy said they are like birds on a power line. When one flies off, they all fly off.

The media says more people are coming out for GOP primaries/caucuses than for the Democrats. Maybe, but here's a story.

The NYT gave prime coverage to Rubio's win in Puerto Rico and less attention to Sander's caucus win in Maine. Why? AP said that almost 37,000 people had voted in Puerto Rico, but less than 4,000 in Maine. The fact was that almost 47,000 Democrats voted in Maine (more than the less than 10,000 Republicans a day earlier), setting a new record. That undermined, at least somewhat, the reports that the Democrats are pulling fewer voters than the GOP and that Sanders, despite big crowds, is not causing bigger voter turnouts. The NYT obviously did not bother to check the data, possibly leading its pundits rely on bad info. There is objective truth out there somewhere, but we are probably not getting it.