Thursday, March 17, 2016

Political thoughts – 4 After sort of Super Tuesday



We continue to look for the day when the voters select the nominees.  That would be the real Super Tuesday.  As the kids ask, “Are we there yet?”

Trump.  He continues his march, but still does not quite seem inevitable.  Even he talked on Wednesday about what he would do with his life if he did not win.  He claims he can unify the party, even the country, but at what price to his supporters.  The more “presidential” he gets, the more he risks alienating his voters.  If you ride the tiger, it may swallow you.  The pundits now wonder if he can get a majority of delegates before the convention.  If not, what?

Cruz.  His answer: “me.”  More truly conservative than Trump, but he has not overtly promoted violent handling of hecklers, who are, after all, a part of the political tradition.  Trump supporters could possible accept him, if nobody else.  If he and Trump have enough delegates together to win, a pre-convention deal could happen.

Kasich.  He plans to be the uncola.  If the rest of the party, loosely known as the “establishment,” can stop Trump and Cruz at the threshold and he hangs around, he believes they turn to him.  But that would have to mean delegates already pledged to one or the other of them would move to him.  He has to start showing just how conservative he really is to have any hope of that.  Not likely.

Rubio.  Something of a fraud.  Though the establishment fleetingly saw him as their alternative, his withdrawal made clear he wants to be seen as a tea party conservative who stands at arm’s length from the establishment.  Now he can.  Hopes to be vice presidential candidate.  Right now, who cares?

The GOP Convention.  Brokered?  No, there are no brokers.  Open: Not likely, too unruly and uncertain.  So, what?  “The Art of the Deal.”  If Trump does not get enough delegates, pre-convention negotiations are likely.  Trump, Senate GOP, pollsters and Cruz at or under the table at the very least. 

Clinton.  Hard to beat now.  Must be joyful at the prospect of Trump as opponent, because her issues pale compare to his.  But amazingly inept at times.  Asked this week about NAFTA, she had no answer.  Huh?  If she is the experienced leader, she must do better.  One can only assume she actually knows the answer, but lacks the political guts to state it.  Thus, does not come across with the strength she needs to project.

Sanders.  Has really helped keep the Democrats before the media, while the GOP battles, which Clinton alone could not have done.  And he has reminded the party and Clinton of its traditional values.  Unfortunately, the better he has done, the more he sounds like a conventional candidate.  He should and will stay in the race right up to the convention even if she has the delegates to get the nomination.  What he says is often worth hearing and carries influence.

Polling.  Do we need any more proof that it is not worth much?  Mostly because it is so overdone that too many people refuse to participate, preventing a truly random sample.  The media does not get it.

Media.  What makes anybody with a laptop or a microphone an expert?  People with no political experience are issuing expert views on the campaign, but fail to do more than parrot somebody else’s spin.  Anchors ask tyros what events mean without first asking what’s happening.

Turnout.  Remember that the number of people who will pick the delegates will be a small fraction of those voting in November.  That could make to so-called revolutions of Trump and Sanders be less than they now seem.

Senate.  The pundits say the GOP senators will find out if Trump as nominee or blocking the Supreme Court nominee will impose a political price when they are home during the next couple of weeks.  Probably not, but a break from just a couple of key senators on either matter could start a movement after the time away.  (We don’t have long “recesses” for fear the president might nominate somebody to something.)

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