We continue to look for the day when the voters select the
nominees. That would be the real Super
Tuesday. As the kids ask, “Are we there
yet?”
Trump. He continues
his march, but still does not quite seem inevitable. Even he talked on Wednesday about what he
would do with his life if he did not win.
He claims he can unify the party, even the country, but at what price to
his supporters. The more “presidential”
he gets, the more he risks alienating his voters. If you ride the tiger, it may swallow
you. The pundits now wonder if he can
get a majority of delegates before the convention. If not, what?
Cruz. His answer:
“me.” More truly conservative than
Trump, but he has not overtly promoted violent handling of hecklers, who are,
after all, a part of the political tradition.
Trump supporters could possible accept him, if nobody else. If he and Trump have enough delegates
together to win, a pre-convention deal could happen.
Kasich. He plans to
be the uncola. If the rest of the party,
loosely known as the “establishment,” can stop Trump and Cruz at the threshold
and he hangs around, he believes they turn to him. But that would have to mean delegates already
pledged to one or the other of them would move to him. He has to start showing just how conservative
he really is to have any hope of that.
Not likely.
Rubio. Something of a
fraud. Though the establishment
fleetingly saw him as their alternative, his withdrawal made clear he wants to
be seen as a tea party conservative who stands at arm’s length from the
establishment. Now he can. Hopes to be vice presidential candidate. Right now, who cares?
The GOP Convention.
Brokered? No, there are no
brokers. Open: Not likely, too unruly
and uncertain. So, what? “The Art of the Deal.” If Trump does not get enough delegates,
pre-convention negotiations are likely. Trump,
Senate GOP, pollsters and Cruz at or under the table at the very least.
Clinton. Hard to beat
now. Must be joyful at the prospect of
Trump as opponent, because her issues pale compare to his. But amazingly inept at times. Asked this week about NAFTA, she had no
answer. Huh? If she is the experienced leader, she must do
better. One can only assume she actually
knows the answer, but lacks the political guts to state it. Thus, does not come across with the strength
she needs to project.
Sanders. Has really
helped keep the Democrats before the media, while the GOP battles, which
Clinton alone could not have done. And
he has reminded the party and Clinton of its traditional values. Unfortunately, the better he has done, the
more he sounds like a conventional candidate.
He should and will stay in the race right up to the convention even if
she has the delegates to get the nomination.
What he says is often worth hearing and carries influence.
Polling. Do we need
any more proof that it is not worth much?
Mostly because it is so overdone that too many people refuse to
participate, preventing a truly random sample.
The media does not get it.
Media. What makes
anybody with a laptop or a microphone an expert? People with no political experience are
issuing expert views on the campaign, but fail to do more than parrot somebody
else’s spin. Anchors ask tyros what
events mean without first asking what’s happening.
Turnout. Remember
that the number of people who will pick the delegates will be a small fraction
of those voting in November. That could
make to so-called revolutions of Trump and Sanders be less than they now seem.
Senate. The pundits
say the GOP senators will find out if Trump as nominee or blocking the Supreme
Court nominee will impose a political price when they are home during the next
couple of weeks. Probably not, but a
break from just a couple of key senators on either matter could start a
movement after the time away. (We don’t
have long “recesses” for fear the president might nominate somebody to
something.)
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