Trump.
You can’t beat somebody with nobody. The anti-Trump people, now
thinking about opposing him, are not yet united behind an
alternative. Trump draws wider support from voters who are unhappy
with current Washington politics and support him, not because they
really like him, but because he is seen as a sure agent of change.
If you really believe things are bad, then they cannot be worse with
Trump and they seem sure to be different. This rejectionist approach
is working.
Rubio.
He has become the so-called mainstream alternative, though he is a
strong conservative. To the traditional GOP, he seems likely to be
able to govern in a reasonably responsible manner without ceding
conservative positions. His only chance would be for the party to
coalesce around him quickly and make him the March 15 alternative.
That’s not likely. He needs Cruz and Kasich to drop out.
Cruz.
He is trying to be a cleaned-up version of Trump. If you listen to
what he is saying, he is even more quixotic than Trump. His
proposals cater to the hard-core right and it doesn’t matter that
they often make no sense. He is gaining enough delegates to stay in
the race a while.
Kasich.
It looks like he wants to be the Ohio favorite son. He thought
people would come to their senses and pick a candidate who could win
by appealing to independents and Democrats, but that may be old-style
thinking. Either people will abandon him for Rubio or he helps
Trump. Lots of talk about a Rubio-Kasich deal, maybe for the
national ticket.
Carson.
Good-bye.
Clinton.
The more likely a Democratic victory seems, the more she has a lock
on the nomination. Her troubles seem small beside Trump’s apparent
vulnerability. Besides, everybody already knows she has skeletons in
her closet. Can she make Clinton-Trump look like Johnson-Goldwater
in 1964, when it seemed patriotic to support Johnson? Given the
temper of the times, she may face a tougher race than many now
forecast. She is really a mainstreamer in a country where the people
want change.
Sanders.
Nice try, and he does well enough to last as long as he wants. He
carries on, because he has a strong message and looks a lot more
genuine than the others, and he can raise money. The longer he
lasts, the more likely he will pull Clinton to the left. He could
hang on until the convention just to try to influence the party. He
can really help or hurt Clinton by where he goes.
Bloomberg.
Does he wait for March 15 to decide? His polling would have to show
that he would take GOP voters who might stay home if Trump is the
nominee and Democratic voters who are unhappy with Clinton. If he
runs, he would have concluded he could win by using hard data, not
hope. Watch and wait, but decreasingly likely.
Senate.
This may be the key election if the GOP, which looks vulnerable,
abandons its own nominee. The message could be that the GOP needs to
hold onto the Senate to keep President Clinton under control. But
the Democrats could argue against a Senate that would have to support
President Trump.
Endorsements.
They mean little except for the p.r. and whatever benefit to the
endorser if the candidate wins. But Maine Gov. Paul LePage takes the
cake. He tried to get the GOP governors to oppose Trump. Then
Christie, who had aided his campaign and whom he had endorsed, chose
to back Trump. LePage fell right in line, gaining the attention of
the New York Times for his fast switch – in just a single week.
Reminds me of the Everett Dirkson quote; “I am a man of principle
and my first principle is flexibility.”
National
campaign. Nominee selection could be over by March 15 and then the
national campaign begins. There will be blood.
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