Maine primaries take odd new twists

 

Maine primaries take odd new twists

Revelations and ranked-choice voting effects

 

Gordon L. Weil

The Maine Democratic primaries have caught national media attention.  

Recently, they have offered even more curious developments in an already unusual campaign with potential national impact. 

The choice of the Democratic nominee to face GOP Sen. Susan Collins has captured attention.  It looks like Graham Platner, a progressive, is on the way to the nomination.  He gained early out-of-state support from progressive forces plus earning Maine sympathies as a plain-spoken local man.  That led Gov. Janet Mills to suspend her campaign as her funding slowed.

But Platner has faced mounting personal problems that could make him vulnerable to Republican attacks, which he is already receiving.  A Nazi-like tattoo and his posts on matters from race to women were problems that he dismissed as the foibles of heedless youth.  But this week, his sexting, revealed to his campaign by his wife, added to his problems.

Backers like Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have stuck with him, blowing off the personal concerns and presumptuously assuring the national media that Platner is just what Mainers want. The question is whether Maine Democrats will give him a pass, because personal failings no longer matter and he is well situated to defeat Collins.

Mills had not dropped out of the race, saying in April that she was suspending her campaign.  She did not endorse Platner, and it was too late to take her name off the ballot.  She has just reminded Mainers that they can still vote for her.  At 78, her biggest problem remains her advanced age, though she’s younger than Sen. Angus King.

There’s another alternative on the ballot.  David Costello was the Democratic candidate against Independent King in 2024, and he’s back.  The media insists on labelling him a long shot.  He and Mills have suddenly made this Senate primary, determined by ranked-choice voting, both interesting and not quite a done deal.  Much may depend on turnout and voting by women.

How we got here is all about money in politics.  Campaign cash buys media.  Media raises visibility. Visibility raises poll ratings, however dubious polling in Maine may be.  Good poll ratings bring free news coverage.  Result: Platner does well, and Costello remains invisible.  But when Platner stumbles, his notoriety leaves him exposed.

Still unknown is how many people voted early, avoiding the latest Platner revelations.  Will the latest news bring more voters to the polls next Tuesday?  These developments make a case against early voting as opposed to letting the campaign run its course.

Another development, reflecting the effect of ranked choice voting, is taking place in the Democratic primary for governor.  It deals directly with a parallel to campaign cash – name recognition.

King’s namesake son, with no political record of his own, is on the ballot.  Nirav Shah, who gained great public notice as head of Maine CDC during the Covid crisis is also running.  He, too, lacks experience as an elected official and even voted in Georgia as recently as 2024.  Both may be polling well, mainly because of their visibility. 

A member of the Bush family is running in the Republican governor’s primary.   Like King and Shah, he is getting more media coverage than Costello, who might do better than any of them.

In response to the Shah and King campaigns, three experienced Democrats have joined in a single ticket.  They are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Senate President Troy Jackson and former House Speaker Hannah Pingree, who plays down her filial relationship with Rep. Chellie Pingree.

The three ask that voters rank them as they please in the top three positions, which might eliminate either Shah or King on the first round of counting.  This is a tricky strategy if their combined support is close to evenly split.  If one of them finishes first, that candidate has the best chance of winning.  Even one of them finishing second could win.

Clearly, the trio takes a big risk to block Shah and King.  They see people running on their name recognition as a threat to experienced management of state affairs.   The three might have better get-out-the-vote operations, so the test may be between traditional campaigning in a small state and media-based candidacies.

Tickets like this are new to Maine RCV elections and possibly elsewhere.  It’s also happening to a more minor degree in the GOP right-leaning primary.

In the November election, ranked choice voting would apply in the Senate race, though there is no visible third-party candidate.  In the governor’s race, plurality voting applies, and Rick Bennett, formerly a moderate Republican, is running as an independent.  That could split the GOP vote, aiding the Democratic primary winner. 

If Shah or King wins the Democratic primary, though, Bennett could pick up moderate Republicans and unhappy Democrats.

Maine politics become fascinating and confusing.