Platner’s war: Ending Maine’s gerontocracy

Gordon L. Weil

Graham Platner easily won the Maine Democratic Senate primary to challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins.

Platner overcame sharp criticism of some of his past personal behavior, already being made an issue by GOP PACs. 

From a Maine perspective, the national media missed what is taking place, preferring its cosmic level analysis.  Platner’s victory was not mostly the defeat of a Democratic moderate by a progressive.  It was about who could capture the seat from an aging, formerly moderate Republican, who too often supported Trump.

Age is the driving issue in Maine’s campaigns.  Platner defeated Gov. Janet Mills, 78, because she would have been the oldest first-year senator ever.  Maine Sen. Angus King is even older.  Plus, Mills is not the usual moderate; she leans to the right.  Though she vigorously challenged Trump, she is more conservative than her own party in the Legislature.

Collins, 73, suffers from visible hand and head tremors.  Pledged to serve two terms, she now seeks her sixth.  Over her career, she has ossified, going from a popular Mainer to a Washington pro, putting power over principle.  Her status as moderate has faded, partly because she backed the nominations of Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Health Sec. Bobby Kennedy, Jr.

Whatever voters’ opinions about the flawed Platner, the calendar doesn’t lie; at 41, he’s a lot younger and more attuned to today’s average Mainers.  And he tells them what they want to hear about the need for change, as the state gradually moves from being bipartisan purple to outright Democratic blue.

The Collins-Platner campaign is likely to follow predictable lines unless one or both falters badly.

Collins will run on the pork-barrel money she has brought back to Maine for local projects.  As chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, she has conceded real spending power to the White House, but she can claim to be the Queen of Earmarks.  Every senator gets their share, but she can “bring home the bacon.” 

As the Republican senator who splits most often with Trump, Collins will try to keep her moderate image alive.  Her balancing act has worked, because her disagreements with the White House rarely make a difference in the final Senate vote.  She characteristically explains away and excuses some of her party-line votes, perhaps because they assure her committee leadership.

Her backers will hammer Platner’s personal defects.  They want women voters to reject him for his sexual gambits and back the female candidate.  Their attacks will be constant, and the GOP will spend heavily to hold onto its last remaining congressional seat in New England.  Still, given how little Trump’s crotch grabbling revelation mattered, these attacks might fizzle.

Platner will run like a progressive.  His major out-of-state support comes from Sen. Bernie Sanders and company, not from Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer.  This will be a hugely costly campaign, so Democratic money matters, and he knows it.  In-state, he will garner the support of respected Democratic leaders.

To some degree, Platner’s chances will depend on voters in Maine’s Second Congressional District, which has supported Trump while narrowly electing Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, who is retiring.  It’s the north-eastern district.  Platner will easily carry the southern, blue First District.

The Democratic governor’s primary is relevant.  It ended with one candidate slightly ahead of three others who are closely grouped.  The winner will be selected by ranked choice voting, and it’s likely the front-runner won’t prevail. The next three ran as a ticket designed to deny him second or third choice votes.  All four are decades younger than Mills.

Anything can happen when the votes are tabulated next week.  Troy Jackson, a former state Senate President, was one of the three and ran well in his northern Maine home territory.  If he’s on the general election ballot with Platner, Jackson could provide valuable help.

Also on the joint ticket was Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, considered by some to be everybody’s second choice.  Candidate Angus King III, running fifth, will be eliminated, and if Bellows picks up enough support from his voters, she could have a chance of moving up to the top.

Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, another member of the trio, ran a strong campaign, backed by Mills.  Like Bellows, she would add a woman to the Democratic ballot, which could help calm Platner concerns. 

Hannah’s mother, Rep. Chellie Pingree, the First District U.S. House member, will be easily reelected.  RCV will produce a more liberal Democrat than Golden to run against the aging former Gov. Paul LePage, 77, a Trumper.

There will be more election excitement and spending than usual in Maine. The sharpest irony is that Trump, 80 on Sunday, must back Collins, whom he intensely dislikes but whose Senate vote he desperately needs.  His support could hurt her as much as it helps. 

Maine primaries take odd new twists

 

Maine primaries take odd new twists

Revelations and ranked-choice voting effects

 

Gordon L. Weil

The Maine Democratic primaries have caught national media attention.  

Recently, they have offered even more curious developments in an already unusual campaign with potential national impact. 

The choice of the Democratic nominee to face GOP Sen. Susan Collins has captured attention.  It looks like Graham Platner, a progressive, is on the way to the nomination.  He gained early out-of-state support from progressive forces plus earning Maine sympathies as a plain-spoken local man.  That led Gov. Janet Mills to suspend her campaign as her funding slowed.

But Platner has faced mounting personal problems that could make him vulnerable to Republican attacks, which he is already receiving.  A Nazi-like tattoo and his posts on matters from race to women were problems that he dismissed as the foibles of heedless youth.  But this week, his sexting, revealed to his campaign by his wife, added to his problems.

Backers like Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have stuck with him, blowing off the personal concerns and presumptuously assuring the national media that Platner is just what Mainers want. The question is whether Maine Democrats will give him a pass, because personal failings no longer matter and he is well situated to defeat Collins.

Mills had not dropped out of the race, saying in April that she was suspending her campaign.  She did not endorse Platner, and it was too late to take her name off the ballot.  She has just reminded Mainers that they can still vote for her.  At 78, her biggest problem remains her advanced age, though she’s younger than Sen. Angus King.

There’s another alternative on the ballot.  David Costello was the Democratic candidate against Independent King in 2024, and he’s back.  The media insists on labelling him a long shot.  He and Mills have suddenly made this Senate primary, determined by ranked-choice voting, both interesting and not quite a done deal.  Much may depend on turnout and voting by women.

How we got here is all about money in politics.  Campaign cash buys media.  Media raises visibility. Visibility raises poll ratings, however dubious polling in Maine may be.  Good poll ratings bring free news coverage.  Result: Platner does well, and Costello remains invisible.  But when Platner stumbles, his notoriety leaves him exposed.

Still unknown is how many people voted early, avoiding the latest Platner revelations.  Will the latest news bring more voters to the polls next Tuesday?  These developments make a case against early voting as opposed to letting the campaign run its course.

Another development, reflecting the effect of ranked choice voting, is taking place in the Democratic primary for governor.  It deals directly with a parallel to campaign cash – name recognition.

King’s namesake son, with no political record of his own, is on the ballot.  Nirav Shah, who gained great public notice as head of Maine CDC during the Covid crisis is also running.  He, too, lacks experience as an elected official and even voted in Georgia as recently as 2024.  Both may be polling well, mainly because of their visibility. 

A member of the Bush family is running in the Republican governor’s primary.   Like King and Shah, he is getting more media coverage than Costello, who might do better than any of them.

In response to the Shah and King campaigns, three experienced Democrats have joined in a single ticket.  They are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Senate President Troy Jackson and former House Speaker Hannah Pingree, who plays down her filial relationship with Rep. Chellie Pingree.

The three ask that voters rank them as they please in the top three positions, which might eliminate either Shah or King on the first round of counting.  This is a tricky strategy if their combined support is close to evenly split.  If one of them finishes first, that candidate has the best chance of winning.  Even one of them finishing second could win.

Clearly, the trio takes a big risk to block Shah and King.  They see people running on their name recognition as a threat to experienced management of state affairs.   The three might have better get-out-the-vote operations, so the test may be between traditional campaigning in a small state and media-based candidacies.

Tickets like this are new to Maine RCV elections and possibly elsewhere.  It’s also happening to a more minor degree in the GOP right-leaning primary.

In the November election, ranked choice voting would apply in the Senate race, though there is no visible third-party candidate.  In the governor’s race, plurality voting applies, and Rick Bennett, formerly a moderate Republican, is running as an independent.  That could split the GOP vote, aiding the Democratic primary winner. 

If Shah or King wins the Democratic primary, though, Bennett could pick up moderate Republicans and unhappy Democrats.

Maine politics become fascinating and confusing.

 

Maine Democratic Senate primary -- a new twist

 

A twist in Maine’s Democratic Senate primary

Gordon L. Weil 

“It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”   That wisdom of Yogi Berra may still be working in Maine.

In the Democratic primary race, commentary has assumed that Graham Platner, a Bernie Sanders’ backed progressive who has said and done some controversial things, will be the nominee to face incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins.  That’s because Gov. Janet Mills suspended her campaign when faced with poor poll results and being outspent.

Ever since, Platner has been under constant attack from outside groups apparently aligned with Collins.  For them, the fall campaign is already under way.  Commentaries in national media pick at Platner, though some may marvel at his appeal in changing the focus of the Democratic Party.

However, it’s possible that the attacks on Platner are having an almost subterranean effect on the June 9 Democratic primary.

Mills suspended her campaign, but she did not withdraw, and she has not endorsed Platner.  Her name remains on the ballot along with Platner and David Costello, who ran in 2024 as the Democratic candidate against Independent Sen. Angus King. 

The national and state media has assumed that the primary race will be a walk-in for Platner.   It may be somewhat more complicated than that.

The primary will be conducted under ranked choice voting.  A Democratic voter could vote for all three candidates in rank order.

Some voters say they will put Mills in first place on the ballot.  That’s not likely to give her the election, but it could complicate matters.  If Costello, who received over 10 percent of the general election vote two years ago, becomes a factor, the outcome could be less clear. 

Platner might want to encourage bullet voting, where his backers vote only for him, but that’s a risk.  He would need to win an outright majority, as the media assumes.

But two factors need to be taken into account.  First, there are supposed to be debates.  Platner, acting as if that’s no longer necessary, says he won’t participate.  Costello obviously would show up.

What about Mills?  The editorial page editor of Maine’s largest newspaper advocated yesterday that Mills should participate in the debates to give Platner a “stress test.”  If you believe in conspiracies, this is surely a way to revive Mills’ candidacy.

Having merely suspended her campaign but not her candidacy, she could seek to be included in a debate.  Her involvement would ensure increased visibility for Costello, who is almost entirely ignored.

The other factor is how the primary is seen in Maine.  While the national media focus on Platner as a sign of the rise of the Democrat’s progressive wing, many Maine voters pay more attention to his image as an average guy, outspoken and pushing real change.  He needs to maintain that image in the face of continuing GOP attacks.

Mills has been a right-of-center Democrat, but a tough Trump opponent, so she has continuing appeal with some in the party.  She could get some votes, and Costello could be her back-up.  We could learn more about ranked choice voting, than we think we know.  Democrats and unenrolled voters can participate in the primary.

Does this change the expected outcome?  Probably not, but there’s more going on below the superficial commentary in the national media.  That makes this primary race one to watch.