Third party alternatives coming for 2026 elections

 

Gordon L. Weil

In the political off season, if that still exists, people often turn to dreams of a new party.  As soon as any frustrated player talks about forming a new political party, they are scolded for not recognizing how difficult it is and that new parties don’t work. 

Now comes Elon Musk, whose foreign birth would deny him the presidency, but who wants to create the America Party.  

Ignore him, and maybe he’ll go away.  Maybe not.  Maybe he is sending a message.  He is not proposing a “third” party.  That’s because there are no political parties left standing.

The traditional Republican Party no longer exists.  It was seized by Donald Trump, who is Republican in Name Only.  The remnants of the former Republican establishment are defeated and dispersed. The vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill is prime evidence of the Trump monolith overriding traditional GOP concerns about the debt.

“I am not a member of any organized political party. I’m a Democrat,” said cowboy philosopher Will Rogers.  The party has no program, other than opposing Trump, no leader, and no unity.  It governs a minority of states, which may matter little in the face of Trump authoritarian rule.

The Democrats’ progressive wing wants to move the party toward a larger role for government and higher taxes on the wealthy with the funds being used for social policies.  Traditional Democrats are more conservative, competing with the GOP more effectively, they say, for blue collar voters.  

The problem with the Democrats is that too many believe that being opposed to Trump is all it takes to win. 

Both major, but dying, parties fear what they see as a third party that could capture voters who would normally support one or the other of them.  In 1992, independent Ross Perot may have taken supporters away from both sides.  Having learned that lesson, each attacks new party advocates.

Many voters are discontent with what they see as the government’s failure to respond to their concerns about their economic condition and outlook.  They want change, which explains the successes of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. 

Trump provides change.  Instead of a hope, voters have the reality.  The talk of a third party reveals that some voters have found that, in their desire for change, they gave Trump a blank check.  Musk believes he has the formula and the funding to offer change without Trump.

But the third-party movement misses the point, especially when the strongest anti-Trump sentiment comes from extreme fiscal conservatives like Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul and extreme liberals like Vermont Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders.  There’s no third party that would accommodate both.

The answer is likely not a third national party but a series of alternatives.  The Trump opposition could be formed out of a combination of movements.  Different solutions could work among different electorates.

In the upcoming 2026 congressional elections, Musk’s party could field candidates in targeted districts.  Despite Musk’s maverick image, these candidates, holding views on trade and economic policy akin to traditional Republican conservatives, could either win seats, defeat Trumpers or hand districts to Democrats by splitting the GOP.

More independent candidates could run.  Maine makes the case.  It has elected two independent governors, one of whom now sits in the U.S. Senate.  That’s at least theoretically possible in 2026 with a strong independent now in the governor’s race.  In Nebraska, an independent candidate has a strong chance for a Senate seat.

The chief appeal of independents is not that they are moderate, taking a position between the two parties, but that they are not part of the parties.  Their independence, a willingness to find practical, non-ideological solutions, may represent an appealing version of change.

Another element of the alternative effort would be philanthropy.  The New York Times has reported about a group of foundations that will support opposition to authoritarian moves by the Trump administration.  While they are outside of the partisan process, their role provides indirect help to Trump’s opponents.

Private funding also supports efforts to get people to the polls. The Republican Party openly tries to discourage voter participation in the belief that marginal voters are likely to support Democrats.  Gerrymandering runs wild. To effectively oppose Trump, getting out the vote may be far more important than other actions, including a third party.

In next year’s congressional elections, the Democrats or at least an anti-Trump coalition ought to be able to take control of the House, now held by a tiny GOP majority.  Some Democratic unity would help.  If Trump’s authoritarianism has succeeded in creating widespread opposition, the real test would come in flipping GOP Senate seats.

Musk has a point.  At the same time, he misses the point.  A single, unified party is not the solution to Trumpism; an array of alternatives may be. 

Trump's personal presidency

 

Gordon L. Weil

I am the state.  In the original, it was “l’Ētat, c’est moi” and is attributed to Louis XIV, the king of France centuries ago.

It could be the motto of Donald Trump, the most personal president in American history. He uses the office, a public trust, as his personal property.  He rules more than he governs.

Elon Musk provides the latest proof of Trump’s personal rule.  The world’s richest man poured hundreds of millions into the Trump campaign, and he helped the president fulfill his promise to cut government spending.  The job was left to Musk, who slashed and burned his way through agency after agency.

He departed the Trump administration with the appreciation of the president ringing in his ears, but immediately savagely attacked Trump’s pet legislation, because it boosts the federal debt, contrary to what Musk thought he had been asked to do.

Trump vented his anger with Musk for opposing his “Big, Beautiful Bill” by immediately threatening to end contracts of Musk’s companies with the federal government, some providing important services. 

Trump claims that he pushed Musk out of the government.  If so, his action echoes the classic words of Frederick the Great, the powerful king of Prussia.  When he tossed out Voltaire, his philosopher in residence, he said, “When you have squeezed the juice from an orange, you throw away the peel.”

The personalization of the presidency by Trump is the hallmark of his second term.  Believing that his second election was a vindication giving him almost royal authority, he is open about his use and abuse of power. 

He has tried to retaliate against law firms whose partners have represented Democrats or others who have opposed him by undermining their ability to do business with the government.  They can get off the hook by providing his personal projects, like his library, with millions of dollars of free legal work.

He fired competent top military personnel without giving any reason.  Perhaps he concluded that a Black general and a female admiral got their jobs thanks to Biden’s DEI without regard to their merit.  His passion to purge what he sees as “woke” appointments is arbitrary and unchecked.

Because he believes that Biden became president thanks to a stolen election, a belief unsupported by any evidence, he does all he can to denigrate Biden’s presidency and make it seem like a terrible mistake.  His call for an investigation of Biden’s mental acuity during his presidency is unprecedented, but part of his effort to discredit his predecessor.

Even his tariff policy reflects his temperament rather than carefully planning.  Presidents may be able to use tariffs to deal with specific countries about specific items in trade.  But they are not supposed to use emergency powers to extend a flat tariff to virtually every country, with the notable exception of Russia, because he dislikes the U.S. trade deficit.

And what’s the basis of a 10 percent tariff?  It has less to do with each country’s trade imbalance with the U.S., if any, than with the fingers on his hands.  And why should tariffs be doubled without any economic justification from one day to the next when Trump is peeved at a country?  This is personal and not serious trade policy.

Then, there’s the presidential plane.  Believing he should have the world’s best executive aircraft and tired of waiting for Boeing, he induced Qatar to give the U.S. a luxury plane it had been unable to sell.  It will cost taxpayers millions to make the plane secure and suitable. 

Somehow, his presidential library is supposed to get the aircraft at the end of his term.  His promise not to use it then is both hollow and unenforceable.

This list skips over his family business dealings with Qatar and other countries that are making him wealthier every day.  And the sales of his crypto coins.  No previous president has ever engaged in private enterprises operating while he is in office and in countries dealing officially with him.  These are the ultimate examples of the personal presidency.  Except one.

The parade. Tens of millions of tax dollars are being spent for a huge military review on June 14, his birthday.  Such armed pomp is unusual for the U.S., but more typical of Russia, China and a few kingdoms.  He wants to keep up with the neighbors, basking in the same glory as his supposed pals Valdimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

The Constitution alone cannot stop him.  It was drafted in the belief that America would always reject one-person rule, just as did King George III.  It may not now be fully up to Trump’s challenge.

Until now, Congress and the voters have tolerated this new view of the presidency.  The Supreme Court encourages it.  There is no substantial opposition to it. 

Where are we headed?

Trump's DOGE could face Congress protecting its turf

 

Gordon L. Weil

There’s a new government department.  Except that it’s not part of the government and it’s not a department. 

It’s the Department of Government Efficiency, known at DOGE.  Sounds like something you’d make up, maybe as a video game, but it is real.  Its leaders aren’t confirmed by the Senate, its staff is not taxpayer funded, it communicates by social media, and it reports to a president who is not yet in office.

It exists and is functioning.  President-elect Trump expects it to respond to the broad concern that the government is not working and is not responsive to the public’s needs and priorities.

Trump has been acting presidential well before he takes office.  Of course, he has presidential experience, but his early moves are likely to set a new precedent in governing.  Creating a seemingly real government department before he gets into the White House is part of his effort.

He gave the agency to Elon Musk, on paper the world’s richest man, and Vivek Ramaswamy, who wants to be president one day.  Both are wealthy enough to finance DOGE and use Musk’s X social media to communicate.

The two men issue recommendations, which at times sound more like their wish list than measures to improve federal government operations.  But DOGE should be taken seriously, because it was created for them by President-elect Trump, and he takes it seriously.

DOGE has three purposes.  It would bring federal spending under greater control to reduce the annual deficit, allowing taxes to be cut, not raised.  It would eliminate unwanted, unnecessary or overlapping agencies or functions, reducing the size of government.  It would give the president increased ability to control the government.

The early proposals by the two DOGE bosses are somewhat scattershot, but responsive to the Trump Republican agenda.  The Department of Education and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are at risk of outright elimination.  Even the Defense Department bureaucracy may be in for cuts.

In line with the Supreme Court’s doubt about the powers of independent regulatory agencies, DOGE might want to pare down the staffs of such bodies, including the IRS.  Outlays for culture, public health, and NASA could all be reduced.  But plans have not yet taken final form.

Ultimately, the DOGE spirit might extend to dealing with the two largest areas of federal spending, Social Security and Medicare.  Decisions about their future funding must come soon.  One solution would be to reduce benefits, which may sit well with DOGE.

The success of this cost-cutting approach may depend on Congress.  The president cannot close agencies or programs that exist under law.  Although Trump disagrees, the law now prevents a president from refusing to spend money on congressionally mandated programs.  He would need the consent of Congress to enact at least some major DOGE proposals.

While that may sound easy with a GOP Congress, it’s not a certainty. Many programs exist because members of Congress want to please specific constituencies.  Regardless of their party, they may be reluctant to kill or cut them.  Partisan support for the president may not overcome catering to their backers.

Evidence exists that Trump and DOGE may inevitably face a hard sell.  The Government Accountability Office, something like the national accountant, has already looked at much of what DOGE is supposed to do, but the agency is mostly ignored.

The GAO has published a detailed list of hundreds of federal programs that duplicate or overlap other programs.  For example, 80 economic development programs are run by four different agencies.  They exist thanks to proposals by members of Congress or turf battles among the agencies.  They probably waste billions of dollars.

Even more worrisome is the GAO High Risk Series, which “identifies government operations with vulnerabilities to fraud, waste, abuse, and mismanagement, or in need of transformation.”  Sometimes agencies heed warnings and undertake enough reforms to get off the list.  There are now 34 GAO warnings. but the president and Congress take little interest in them.

Presidents and department heads are selected for political reasons, not their administrative abilities.  A function like DOGE could make sense if it were independent and not overly ideological.  Of course, GAO could be used, if it were taken more seriously.

So-called zero-base budgeting for agencies could also be used.  Under it, they would regularly develop the lowest budget needed to get their missions accomplished and request any new funding for going beyond that.  Congress could eliminate or create programs.  President Jimmy Carter installed a workable ZBB, but it was gone by the presidency of George W. Bush.

Large organizations, public or private, will always be inefficient.  Though its agenda may turn out to be overly personal, too partisan or controversial, Trump’s DOGE recognizes that inefficiency may have gone too far, causing lost public confidence in government.