Poltical myths of the year

 

Gordon L. Weil

With the yearend, my occasional search for political myths is overflowing.  Here are ten of the best.

1. Commerce Department reports unexpectedly strong economic growth. 

This report exceeds earlier results and independent economic forecasts.  The Commerce Department’s questionable objectivity could raise doubts about it.   Trump fired one of its top independent economists, because he disliked her analyses, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is totally loyal to his president.

2. Epstein papers are being released. 

Candidate Trump promised they’d be released, implying that the Democrats suppressed them to avoid embarrassment.  But he tried unsuccessfully to block their release, throwing suspicion on himself and on his campaign promise.  The release drags on.  Does it matter?  Probably not, as the absence of a political reaction to his “Access Hollywood” groping story showed.

3. Trump has launched a peace deal in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. 

The first phase of the deal successfully brought the release of prisoners and hostages.  But the neutral international force to be stationed in Gaza does not exist, and the conflict continues.  With Trump’s support, Israel retains control and won’t fully withdraw, and Hamas terrorists cling to power in Gaza.  Trump claims he brought peace; he didn’t even bring a ceasefire.

4. Trump might run for a third term. 

A third term is unconstitutional, but with this Supreme Court anything is possible.   Still, as Trump’s health has evolved, third-term chatter has virtually vanished.  Appearing to have abandoned his hope, he has even named possible successors – Vance and Rubio.

5. Canada should be the 51st state. 

He might have noticed it already was.   But he wanted more than dependence; he wanted historic American territorial expansion.   Mark Carney, the new Canadian Prime Minister, strongly opposed Trump’s tariffs, and Canada promptly began diversifying away from the U.S.  The expansionist policy backfired.

Statehood would require the approval of Congress and the unlikely agreement of most Canadians.  If it happened, the U.S. could gain each of the ten provinces as states, not huge Canada signing on as one state.  That was probably not Trump’s intent.

6. Greenland is part of North America and the Monroe Doctrine entitles the U.S. to it.

Tectonic plates make Greenland a part of North America, but the Monroe Doctrine does not apply.  Greenland was under the Danish crown before the Monroe Doctrine, which specifically exempts Western Hemisphere territories already under European control.   It was aimed at keeping Spain and Portugal from trying to retake their former colonies.

Greenland, an autonomous region of Denmark, would agree to host increased U.S. military operations.  Without territorial concessions, upgraded defense could be achieved. Trump’s goal seems to be about territory, not defense, and he has alienated an ally. 

7. The president can deploy the National Guard to protect U.S. facilities in American cities.

Despite Trump’s deployments, the Supreme Court recently ruled that the National Guard can be used to protect federal facilities only when the regular military cannot.  It can’t replace local police.  That’s originalism, but it was opposed by the very justices usually favoring that concept.  Trump got the message and withdrew the troops in most places.

8. Child labor protection denies children their freedom.

Congress once planned a constitutional amendment on child labor.  Instead, it long ago enacted strong, protective legislation.  Facing labor shortages due to reduced immigration, some Republicans now want to loosen that protection.  Their logic? Since kids now stay up late playing video games, they should be free to work more hours.

9. The U.S. is committed to Taiwan’s independence from China.

While it intentionally waffles on China’s claim to Taiwan, the U.S. could thwart a Communist Chinese invasion of the island.  China menaces Taiwan and has been conducting nearby live-fire exercises in international waters, patrolled by the U.S. Navy to ensure freedom of the seas and to oppose China’s claims.

American policy is weakened by moving an entire aircraft carrier group from the South China Sea to the Caribbean, trying to force Venezuelan regime change.  The U.S. pushes an aggressive view of the Monroe Doctrine rather than resisting Chinese expansion affecting Taiwan, the Philippines and South Korea, all important allies.

10. The U.S. is the only power that can bring peace between Ukraine and Russia.

Russia invaded Ukraine to expand and extend its influence on the territory of the former Soviet Union.  Conflicting territorial claims and Ukraine’s insistence on protecting its sovereignty put a peace deal out of reach.  The U.S. could force a resolution by stronger backing for Ukraine or tougher retaliation against the Russian aggressor, as some Republicans advocate, or both.

By doing neither, Trump is unable to bring peace.  His solution is to force Ukraine to accept Russian demands, but his problem is that Europe feels threatened and supports Ukraine’s independence, pledging to back it indefinitely.  As a result, Trump cannot become the historic dealmaker, when a deal on Russian-U.S. terms is impossible.

A loyal reader found an editorial error in the last column.  The correct name with nickname of the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is Gen. Dan “Raizin’ Caine”.

China aims toi pass U.S. as top superpower

 

Gordon L. Weil

The magician waves his wand in the air and all eyes in the audience follow.  They don’t pay attention to what’s in his other hand or where he is walking.  He fools them.

China is today’s conjuror.  The wand is its threat to Taiwan.  Its real aim is to be the world’s only superpower, filling a gap left by Trump’s retreat to “America First.”

This sleight-of-hand has a precedent in Nazi Germany.  Its wand was insisting on absorbing ethnic Germans living in other countries.  Its aim was to control Europe and North Africa, while isolating the U.S.  The fools were in the U.K. (Chamberlain cedes Czechoslovakia to Hitler), and the U.S. (Charles Lindbergh’s first “America First”).

China would not normally be expected to seek influence over the political and military situation in Europe.   But the U.S. is turning away from Europe to face what it sees as an Asian menace.  That helps China to become a military factor there, using Russia as its agent.

Russia, the home of practical Communism, inspired the Chinese Communist Party.  But it has lost influence, while China has extended its reach.  The Ukraine war has made Russia increasingly dependent on its much larger ally.  In effect, it is becoming a satellite of China.

Here, too, history offers a precedent.  Hitler’s political thinking was influenced by the success of Italian Fascism under Mussolini.  Germany and Italy drew closer.   As World War II progressed, Italy failed to defend itself and became a German satellite with much of the country under Nazi occupation.

Russia has become dependent on China, which allows it to continue the Ukraine war into its fourth year.  Despite its initial statements about remaining neutral, China provides drones, a key element of the Russian offensive.

Even more important, it has become the leading market for Russian raw materials, especially oil.  The Russian economy depends heavily on foreign oil and natural gas sales, which form the core of its economy.  China replaces its lost European markets and pays bargain prices.  It sells manufactured goods to Russia.

China also is the leading customer for Russian coal and, soon, natural gas. It can rely on Russia for fuel by creating a tight and long-lasting tie.  The smaller, weaker country comes more closely under the control of its neighbor.  Total trade between the two countries is estimated at $240 billion. (This compares with $762 billion in U.S.-Canada trade.)

But, Chinese support for Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine comes at a price.  The EU has said that it will not replace its faltering relationship with the U.S. with China while it backs Russia.  Like Canada, this could force Europe into new trade relationships elsewhere.  They may also assume some of the American world role, as the champions of liberal democracy.

The Trump administration has encouraged these developments, perhaps unintentionally.  By rationing its support for Ukraine, it reduced risks for China in forging close ties with the Russian aggressor.  At the same time, the U.S. has struggled to come up with a workable, reformed trade relationship with Beijing.

Trump’s “America First” policy continues to appear isolationist to other countries. He seeks to gain advantages over other countries while weakening his cooperation and support for them. Whether he really would abide by NATO’s Article 5 requiring mutual self-defense remains a matter of lingering doubt.

Taiwan may be used as a distraction, but China remains intent on invading it.  The American policy of strategic ambiguity (does it favor one China or support Taiwan independence?) is increasingly difficult to sustain.  It is expected to support the island if it is attacked, though there are limits on how much American power can be deployed.

The U.S. Navy is patrolling the South China Sea, refuting China’s wild claims that the international waterway is part of its territorial waters.  Hostile warnings from Chinese vessels have been sounded, leading South Korea, Japan and the Philippines to draw closer to the U.S.

It is widely believed that China supports Russia in Ukraine for its own direct purposes.  If Russia can succeed in extending its influence there despite European opposition, then China could be encouraged to make a similar move on Taiwan despite American opposition.

Trump signals that he will strengthen sanctions on Russia, which could implicate China.   He could deploy secondary sanctions – economic penalties on countries that continue to do business with Russia thus financing its war effort.  Europe, Canada and others could sign on to this policy.

China also continues to aggressively push its role in Africa and Latin America, often through its investments.  Its obvious goal is to extend its influence by creating economic dependence and gaining naval bases.  China needs these regions to achieve its goal as the world’s leading superpower.  Quite like the pre-Trump U.S., it might not be liked, but it would have to respected,

Trump Doctrine emerges: America First, block China

 

The Trump Doctrine now takes its place in American history.

Trump joins presidents who adopted broad world policies that became identified with them.  President James Monroe warned that Europe should stay out of the Americas, creating the Monroe Doctrine.  President Harry Truman pledged U.S. support to governments opposing authoritarians, creating the Truman Doctrine (though probably repealed by Trump).

Both Monroe and Truman based their doctrines on the growing American power.  The Trump Doctrine recognizes the limits of American power.  It has become known thanks to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the accidental model of transparency even about the most sensitive government planning.

The Trump Doctrine has two priorities: defending the American “homeland” and preparing for a potentially military confrontation with China.  These are Trump’s basics drawn from Project 2025, a conservative manifesto that he had denied even knowing about.

“China is the Department’s sole pacing threat, and denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan — while simultaneously defending the U.S. homeland is the Department’s sole pacing scenario,” is Hegseth’s description of the core of the doctrine.

This strategy explains policies that Trump has pursued from the outset of his presidency.  The U.S. prepares to meet a “threat” from China, but it acts now to fulfill a “scenario” of security.

First, defend the 50-state homeland by increasing the buffer around it.  Add Canada and Greenland to create a new, expanded homeland, allowing the U.S. to defend against attack from the north.  Owning territory provides greater security than a mere alliance like NATO.

The original America First movement in 1940-41 preached that the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans were satisfactory buffers, but the new America First supplements them with territory.  The aspirations and values of other nations must be overridden to put this plan in place.

Second, casting any doubt aside, the Trump Doctrine makes clear that the U.S. would use military force to protect Taiwan from a Chinese attempt to seize it.  It makes clear that the principal threat to American security comes from China.  While this may be accurate, all measures short of a military buildup seem to have been ruled out.

What about the rest of the world?  Europe, the Middle East and East Asia defenses would largely be left to regional powers.  The U.S, would help them against threats from Russia, Iran or North Korea, but only within the limits of its resources after dealing with its top two priorities.

Though American policy would call these regional powers “allies,” their dependence on the U.S. for weapons and intelligence would make them something more like the “satellites” that surrounded the Soviet Union and which Putin seeks to recreate. 

Trump’s attempt to take over key elements of Ukraine’s economy in return for past American help against the Russian invasion is a prime example of this approach.  Trump wields the power of tariffs, weapons supply, and intelligence capability to force compliance.  He even demands that foreign suppliers to the U.S. drop their DEI programs.

Because his demands affect the sovereign powers of other nations, his Doctrine could encounter strong resistance.  Sensing any willingness by them to make concessions, he increases his demands.  Leaders may try personal flattery, but can end up appeasing him to avoid retaliation.  History reveals that appeasement fails to yield satisfactory results.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney shows he understands that appeasement will not work.  Measures to cut tiny Fentanyl flows or a trickle of illegal immigration have only led to greater U.S. demands.  Carney is taking a tougher line with Trump and is trying to rally Canadians to a sense of unity that will preserve the nation.

Britain and France are willing to defend Ukraine, though some other Europeans remain addicted to taking a free ride whether provided by Europe or the U.S.  If those two countries plus Germany and Poland form a core response, they must make some voluntary sacrifices instead of those demanded by Trump.  Ukraine already is making sacrifices for its survival.

Instead of a free world dominated by the U.S., a series of interlocking accords are likely to gradually develop.  A variety of alliances focusing on military planning, arms production, trade and intelligence could grow, though the U.S. would remain a needed partner. 

Given the obvious flaws in American intelligence security, a new version of Five Eyes could include Canada, Britain, Australia, New Zealand plus Germany, which has sought to participate. A deeper trade relationship with Europe could bring Canada a form of associate status with the EU and participation in the Anglo-French military “coalition of the willing.” 

Moves toward greater self-reliance by otter countries could require costly adjustments, but so would the Trump Doctrine.

The U.S. might reverse its policy, but trust in it has been deeply damaged.  Its cast-off friends cannot take any more risks and must create their own future.