Gordon L. Weil
MAGA may be failing when it comes to some of President Trump’s
key policies.
Like many candidates for executive office, he made promises with
broad political appeal, but which ignored and encountered harsh reality – from political
to economic to legal – that made keeping them impossible.
After making bold and popular promises, Trump last week backtracked
on commitments relating to tariffs, immigration and military action.
With global free trade becoming increasingly unworkable,
Trump imposed a new system depending on a multitude of bilateral arrangements. He levied across-the-board tariffs on almost
all countries. He acted swiftly in the
belief that other countries would flock to make trade concessions so that he
would lower tariffs aimed at them.
Economists warned that the tariff burden would fall mainly
on American consumers as their cost was passed on by importers. He denied that tariffs caused inflation and
even denied that prices were rising. Unhappy consumers saw prices on groceries increase,
whatever he might claim.
No obvious effort was made to equate the dollar value of
trade concessions made by others with the cost imposed by new tariffs. Instead, Trump lowered tariffs in return for promises
of massive new investment in the U.S., though it is doubtful that tracking foreign
investment commitments is possible. In
the short-term, domestic manufacturing benefitted little from tariff protection.
Finally, Trump came to realize that his tariffs were driving
up prices for individual consumers. Last
week, he ordered tariffs lifted on foods for which U.S. production was insufficient
to meet demand, pushing prices up. More tariff
cuts on non-food items are said to be coming.
“Wait. If lowering tariffs lowers prices, what does raising
tariffs do to prices?” Erica York, a vice president at the Tax Foundation,
asked. It may be called a matter of “affordability,”
but that’s really inflation.
In the end, some relatively low tariffs may survive, but the
policy itself is in trouble. Even more
troublesome is the possibility that the Supreme Court, usually supportive of
his expanded use of power, could overturn many of his tariffs because they are
illegal or even unconstitutional. Such a
decision could lead to undermining his assertion of unlimited power.
He floated the idea of returning some of the tariff revenue
to American taxpayers. This may have
been an attempt to encourage the Court not to see tariffs as taxes. It probably won’t work, leaving him in violation
of his MAGA promise to not raise taxes.
On immigration, Trump promised what amounted to the complete
elimination from the U.S. of undocumented or illegal immigrants, starting with the
most criminal. Dating from his first
presidential campaign, that promise was the MAGA cornerstone.
He made clear he was trying to deport as many as possible, even
if they were not criminals. In fact,
law-abiding, productive residents were the easiest to target, which concerned
some people who had supported his policy.
He even reduced legal immigration.
His anti-immigration policy had been the binding force among
his supporters. Last week, that changed.
Trump said that the U.S. lacks people with “certain talents,’
who should be admitted so they can train Americans. Some loyal Trumpers disagreed with that and with
his willingness to admit 600,000 Chinese students. Georgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the
ultimate Trump backer, dissented, so Trump called her “wacky” and ceased supporting
her.
When asked if his policy would displease MAGA backers, he
asserted that he alone had invented MAGA.
That statement implied they must follow his lead. However, because he had adopted policies espoused
originally by others, that leadership is now in question.
He recognized that the U.S. cannot go it alone, especially
in technical areas. He may come to realize
that the economic growth he wants depends on a growing population resulting
from legal immigration. Because of
issues related to the immigrants’ ethnicity, he may encounter even more MAGA opposition.
After his first term, Trump prided himself on having kept
the U.S. out of armed conflict. That
struck a contrast with the Democrats, pleasing his backers. The bombing run he ordered on Iran began to raise
doubts, though he excused it by noting that no American lives were lost.
Last week, he strayed even further from his commitment. He stationed a huge American aircraft carrier,
the world’s largest warship, in the Caribbean Sea as an obvious threat to
Venezuela. It might have been better
placed in the South China Sea to face down Chinese marine aggression than to confront
a relatively minor portion of the drug trade.
Trump risked restoring America’s role as the “world’s policeman,”
a policy completely contrary both to his claim to being a peacemaker and his
policy of keeping the U.S. out of foreign conflicts. America First now seems to allow for the use
of American military power abroad.
MAGA is melting.
