Election puts image over issues

Gordon L. Weil

Political campaigns look for motivational catch phrases. 

One of the most famous was posted in Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign headquarters.  It simply read: “The economy, stupid.”  Workers were to focus on this single issue as a key to winning.

This year, the key may just be emerging to voters distracted by daily polls.  It could be: “It’s about image.”

Pollsters ask voters about the issues most important to them.  Or they may ask about whether a voter views a candidate favorably or unfavorably.  If you have ever voted for a candidate you disagreed with on a major issue or just plain disliked, you might doubt the value of such opinion surveys.

Polls don’t ask if the personality and character of a candidate influences a voter more than their position on major issues.  This year, it’s possible that the image reflecting each candidate’s character may matter more than their positions on issues.

Of course, this effect focuses mostly on swing voters.  The great majority of voters decide based on party affiliation or their personal loyalty to a specific candidate.   Relatively few such people are moved by campaigns. Some issues, like immigration or abortion, may promote voting swings, but how much is not clear.

The contest between former President Trump and Vice President Harris appears to turn largely on who they are more than on any single issue.

Donald Trump provides simple answers to difficult questions. His intentionally inflammatory statements appeal to some people unhappy with the government, especially when they believe others benefit at their expense.  He is negative about the country, and his recourse to America’s “great” past may signal an attempt to slow the changing national ethnic mix.

Yet, Trump’s simple answers may turn out to be simplistic, turning off some voters.  He does not hesitate to lie about objectively verifiable facts.  Recently, he has boldly asserted that there were no crowds at Harris rallies, when thousands could directly testify to having been there. 

He makes claims about his past successes and unfounded charges against the Democrats, but the risk is that the media’s fact-checking can sound like sour grapes.  He is harshly negative about the state of the nation.  His self-confidence may stifle reporters, who struggle to avoid showing any bias against him.

He is more attached to power than the substance of policies, many adopted from hard-right advocates.  He has successfully attached himself to extreme Republican conservatism, which he found ready for strong leadership.

Trump has always been ambitious.  His political career seems more driven by self-gratification than public service.  As with some other past political leaders, the old mantra may apply: “Deep down, he’s shallow.” 

Perhaps above all else, the undeniable fact is that he is now by far the oldest candidate, which could bring him under closer scrutiny.  He now seeks debates, both because he may see himself as the underdog and to demonstrate that age has not taken the same toll on him as it has on Biden.

Trump is well-known, but Kamala Harris has to become known in a short period of time.  Her undeniable facts are that she is middle-aged, far younger than Trump, and a woman.  The challenge for her is to demonstrate that matters politically.

She is trying to show herself as highly active and able to maintain a level of campaigning that is beyond Trump’s ability.  She implicitly makes age an issue and makes frequent campaign stops so that voters and the media can form fresh opinions about her.  She is upbeat.

The test of her political skill comes in having to remain loyal to Biden, who gave her the path to the presidency, while showing she has a mind of her own and can open some space with the administration in which she still serves.  Israel-Palestine may be a bigger challenge to showing if she can lead than immigration or the economy.

Pundits have focused on the Democrats ceding blue collar voters to the GOP, implying that these losses cannot be fully made up by their gains among educated women voters. Harris obviously ties her image to support for abortion choice, an issue resonating with women voters, and the numbers may be in her favor.

The number of women over age 25 with post-high school educational attainment far exceeds the number of men whose schooling ended at high school or earlier.   Here Harris’ persona could matter.

As for running mates, they likely can hurt a ticket more than help it.  JD Vance, like Trump who chose him, runs based on his celebrity.  He is intensely loyal.  Harris’ Tim Walz, a Minnesotan, comes across as a Midwesterner in the tradition of his state’s long-ago Veep, Hubert Humphrey, called “the happy warrior.”

Voters may decide based on candidates’ images, more than on the issues.  Maybe they always have. 

 

‘The Big Mo’ -- Harris needs momentum; Trump would block it

 

Gordon L. Weil

Political candidates want “The Big Mo” – big momentum.

The idea, which originated in professional sports in the 1960s, soon spread to politics.  The theory is that momentum influences how people vote. Progress promotes progress.

In this year’s presidential race, we may see momentum. That’s because the 100-day campaign is much shorter than it has been in more than half a century.  President Biden’s withdrawal produced a new Democratic candidate and entirely changed the landscape for the challenger. 

Not only is the campaign brief, but also both candidates start from scratch.  Though her success came rapidly, Vice President Kamala Harris could not begin her campaign until she had lined up the necessary delegate support.  For former President Donald Trump, it meant going “back to the old drawing board” to redesign his campaign.

For Harris, given the declining Biden support, there’s nowhere to go but up and momentum is essential.  She needs to restore Democratic unity and gain among independents and disaffected Republicans.  For Trump, who may have peaked just short of 50 percent, the challenge is stalling her momentum by adding to his core support.

The shorter campaign with its necessarily sharper focus might increase voter interest between now and November 5.  In this short race, the vice-presidential picks could be a factor.

Trump’s choice of hard-hitting JD Vance was meant to appeal to Mid-America’s workers. So far, Vance has not boosted Trump’s standing.  Harris’ had the same intent with Tim Walz.  She may hope that his affable style plus his greater federal government experience than Trump, Vance or herself can add to her momentum.

The media plays a critical role in how campaign interest develops.  Aside from the purely partisan players like MSNBC and Fox, preaching to the faithful, many voters develop their impressions of candidates from the media’s coverage.  Media messages may not be explicit, but can be tilted.

Of course, money also matters. With huge war chests, candidates’ paid media conveys often exaggerated or false information, focusing more on the opposition than themselves.  That can motivate their supporters and influence people who accept the video spots as fact.  The bias is obvious but still can be influential.

A driving force behind media attitudes is opinion polling.  The polls now come in a daily torrent.  Every day’s little movement, even within the so-called margin of error, influences the media. Does it focus on Harris’ experience or inexperience?   On Trump’s policies or his posing?  The polls may guide the coverage.

As frequently noted in this column, polls have serious defects, ranging from the refusal of many voters to participate to the undisclosed bias of the pollsters.  So, survey numbers should be viewed with skepticism.

But they are useful in at least one respect. They reveal momentum.  If a candidate’s numbers are steadily growing, that shows positive momentum.  At that point, the media can be expected to become more positive about a candidate whose support is growing.  In turn, more positive media coverage can stimulate more positive poll results.

Handle with care. The poll results are fragile and can be affected by a single major event.  The bottom fell out for Biden after his debate failure in a way that could not have been foreseen.  That one evening changed the entire election campaign.  If the event or error is big enough, simple coverage of it can affect voters.

Much of the media and voter focus is on the national poll standing of the candidates.  That’s not really helpful, because we do not have a national, popular election.  Given the way the electoral vote works, a Democrat is likely to need a solid lead in the country as a whole to be assured of gaining enough electoral votes.  Running even with a GOP opponent may not do the job.

Where history has shown close races, the media focuses on swing states that might determine the election outcome.  Polling may focus on individual states, but the surveys may be intermittent or incompetent. The same concerns apply as for national polling.

The greater the margin between the two alternatives, the more reliable are the poll results.  Statistics show that survey data is more reliable the wider the gap.  Here polling momentum can matter, flowing through to the media and back again.  Within the margin of error, differences don’t matter.

Trump must try to block any Harris momentum by extending his appeal beyond his MAGA core.  If he holds onto Republican conservatives, he could win.

Harris has benefitted from increased party unity following her selection and may get a lift from the Democratic National Convention. 

Can she capture “the Big Mo” next month?  If her progress is more than a polling “bounce,” she could surprise with a solid victory. The bigger her margin, the lower the likelihood of an effective Trump post-election challenge.

Election campaign worries? Take the long view

 

Gordon L. Weil

The political campaign these days often makes it sound as if the ultimate fate of the democracy and the country will be decided in November.  It’s now or never.

But this year’s election, though of unusual importance, will not represent the last word in American history no matter how much the campaigns raise fears.  Of course, elections matter and people should always vote, but some current trends seem highly likely to recede over time.  The underlying course of the country yields reasons for optimism.

The motto of Donald Trump and the Republican Party he has captured is “Make America Great Again.” By its own terms, this is a backward-looking message.  It is based on the belief that if the country can return to its glorious past, reversing immigration, halting inflation, ending diversity efforts, limiting environmental protection and stymying the rise of women.

This premise is almost entirely false.  Many of the claims lack evidence, but gain some acceptance thanks to sheer repetition.  It’s the triumph of politics over truth.

Here are some facts.  Immigration policy has been proposed more than once, but it won’t happen without the support of both parties, and that has been lacking.  Meanwhile, illegal immigration has again been slowed, though much needs to be done. And we can’t deport the millions who arrived in the U.S. unlawfully.  Besides, their removal would severely damage the economy.

Both inflation and prosperity have many causes, and presidents should not take the blame or the credit for either.  Government institutions, created to tame economic excess, have done generally well. No president can be held responsible for economic change.  Many forces outside of the government will propel the economy.

Without full equality for all Americans, some people exploit others. That may be fine with the people on top. That may be what “great again” means to some MAGA partisans, but, however traditional, it’s a long way from American ideals.  And it doesn’t work.

If corporate success is more important than human health, then the country could dismantle efforts to protect land, water and air.  That would restore some version of “great again,” by trading future survival for short-term gain.

The dominance of women by men, dating back to the Stone Age, may be what some men want, but women are better educated and less dominated these days.  Their progress can no longer be stopped or reversed.  Four of the nine Supreme Court justices are women.  More than a quarter of Congress members are women.

The country was long controlled by white men, presumably when America was “great.”  If you want to reverse or halt the loss of that control, preventing a majority from sharing in it, then MAGA is your movement.  But demographic reality rejects MAGA.

We are urged to believe that if Trump and the GOP win in November, MAGA will rule and its policies will be applied, dismantling representative democracy and replacing it with an irreversible authoritarianism.

Like the bases of MAGA itself, this conclusion won’t stand up. Nations pass through difficult times without necessarily succumbing to them. 

Take the extreme case of the Civil War when the very existence of the country was at stake. The Union was preserved and a changed country emerged to become the world’s greatest power.  While the war and its aftermath transformed the country, America kept its ideals intact and was able to adapt to rapid change.

Under far worse circumstances, countries recover.  Germany went from Nazi rule to liberal democracy with widely enjoyed prosperity.  In Chile, a popularly elected left-wing government was overthrown by the military.  Yet that the authoritarian regime could not hold onto power and democratic government has come back.

This year’s elections, whatever way they go, will not be the last word.  Of course, MAGA will fight the result, if it loses.  Over the longer term, it will be overtaken by change.

Despite efforts to block “the browning of America,” the make-up of the American population is gradually changing.  The Census Bureau forecasts that no one racial group will be a majority after 2044. 

Educated women wield new political power and anti-abortion efforts stimulate their increased involvement.  Racial attacks increase Black and Latino participation.  Climate change raises broader environmental concerns.  As it always has, immigration will change the country.

Liberal Democrats should neither panic nor hunker down while fearing eventual MAGA long-term rule.  They should agree on and pursue their own agenda and not merely respond to Trump. The moment when MAGA loses its hold could come anytime.

The greatest victim of the MAGA movement has been historically constructive American conservatism.  Traditional conservatives could retake the Republican Party.  The country needs them to get back into the political system.

This long view points to a day when “Make America Great Again” might be only an historic relic.