Signals from the 2024 elections

 

Gordon L. Weil

The pollsters have gone into hiding to lick their well-deserved wounds.

The pundits are desperately assigning blame for the Democratic defeat, while admitting that Trump was a better candidate than they thought.

Beyond the false forecasts and short-time wisdom, a variety of signals emerge from the elections. 

First, my “told you so” statement.  Last December, I wrote that the election would not be between Biden and Trump.  I then wrote that the election would not be close. And I wrote repeatedly that polling results were false, conjured up by pollsters, and not a good measure of opinion.  All true.

Now, down to business.  Here are signals from the elections.

Whatever you think about his message, Trump came across as telling you what he really thought.  He declared that he would say what he wanted, no matter the advice of his strategists.  He generated an aura of sincerity that is almost extinct among political candidates.  In my experience, the early Ed Muskie was like that, and that could be one reason he succeeded.

Money in politics matters, but not without limit.  People will take just so much repetitive advertising or endless pleas for contributions.  To no avail, the Harris campaign amassed more than Trump, despite his big backers.  There is a point of saturation, which comes when people have heard enough.  Billionaire backers and huge war chests can overkill. 

One reason why polling falters is that the relatively few people who agree to talk often lie.  Pollsters reported that in 2016, people fibbed about their support, because they did not want to admit they backed Trump.  That may have been true this year as well and explain why his victory was unforeseen.

Members of politically identified groups, everyone from Poles in Pennsylvania to Muslims in Michigan, may not necessarily see themselves as members of narrow constituencies, but more like average Americans.  If bread is too expensive for middle-class Americans, it is also expensive for target populations.  Apparently, a lot of people agreed on that.

Campaigns often focus on Latinos, who are assumed to see discrimination against Latin American immigrants as their overriding issue. The same may be true for other ethnic groups. Assuming that minorities would back Democrats, simply because they are minorities, may miss the innate conservatism of many such people.  Too much political slicing and dicing, perhaps.

The parties may be fading.  Lawn signs omit party affiliation, formerly a sign of loyal support.  Elections may be more about persons than parties.  Once, the national party chairs were the prime “slash and burn” campaign representatives, allowing the candidate to remain more elevated.  They are almost unknown these days.  Trump’s daughter-in-law co-chairs the GOP.

Trump will be strongest in 2025.  Presidents usually enjoy the greatest deference in their first year, so next year could be the best time for him to try to push his policies, especially while enjoying strong congressional support.  

The following year is another election year, the mid-term when an incumbent president usually loses some congressional support.  Re-election campaigns may reflect the influence and effects of Trump’s policies.  The Democrats could see a chance to retake one or both houses as the best way to control some of his moves.  Expect to see presidential-level campaign spending.

JD Vance may be more in focus than the usual vice president.  As he ages, Trump might find Vance’s visibility helpful, especially in 2026.  And he may bear closer than usual scrutiny, as the possibility of his having to step into the Oval Office increases.

Trump may test the extent of the extreme political powers that the Supreme Court has given him.  Will he be the “day-one dictator” or will he perceive political risks in going too far?  While the Democrats may push back, the real question will be whether Congress reasserts itself.  Congressional renewal, desperately needed, could be a bi-partisan concern.

The role of Congress will depend heavily on the Republican leaders.  House Speaker Mike Johnson has clearly aligned himself with Trump. The Senate GOP will soon select a new Majority Leader who could influence the president or simply fall in line.  This impending selection may provide some hints about the Trump-Congress relationship.

Leadership is the big challenge for the Democrats, which have no obvious national chief.  A new image is needed, possibly to lead the 2026 campaign effort.  The Democratic National Committee may have to stage an informal version of the presidential primary the party never had. It could gain from having a spokesperson who acts as leader of the opposition from outside of Congress.

This list suggests the election has left much American voters do not know about their political future.  It is likely to differ from recent political tradition.   Trump is defining the GOP message.  The Democrats need a new message of their own.

 

 

Trump win confirms America’s political change

 

Gordon L. Weil

American political history has reached a turning point.

So, too, has the country’s moral sense, at least about politics.

But that did not happen this week.  It happened eight years ago, when Donald Trump was first elected president.  Any doubt was erased by his victory and the powerful vote for Republicans across the country this week.  Except for the coasts, that win was national.

Just as in 1933, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal changed the country, so have Trump and his intent to “Make America Great Again.”  For FDR, the emphasis was on a “new” start while for Trump the emphasis has been on greatness “again.” 

Before FDR, the nation had been essentially conservative.  The private economy dominated and the role of government and individual rights were limited.  The economic crisis of the Great Depression and World War II forced change. The New Deal era and American post-war world dominance transformed people’s thinking.

By 2016, Trump had absorbed and embodied the increasing public sense that the country had gone too far beyond its conservative origins.  Whether he exploited that sentiment or truly believed it did not matter.  He came to be the flag around which the people yearning for the political norms of the past could rally.

That realization was more than the supporters of the politics and institutions of the New Deal era could readily accept.  Government was the main tool by which Americans took care of one another, and it was difficult for them to believe that cutting its cost would assume a higher priority than increasing or even maintaining its services.

The political aberration may not have been the 2016 election, but the 2020 election when the old guard barely clung to office.  Looking back, it becomes less difficult to understand how bitter it was for Trump and his backers to accept Joe Biden and company who stood as obstacles on their path to changing the country.

This year, Democrats believed they could snuff out Trump’s movement, because of their appeal to growing segments of the electorate and on the abortion issue.  The rushed selection of their candidate, made necessary by a president who ignored his own failings, left them running on the hope that the people would inevitably recognize Trump as a mistake.

They ignored the scope of the belief that the government had gone too far, too fast.   Social change, focused mostly on the sexual identity of some people, was not yet acceptable to many.  The lack of control of the border, seen by some as the government’s intent, created national uneasiness.   Democratic progressives, buoyed by a few election upsets, overreached.

American politics have fundamentally changed, and Trump has been able to take advantage of it.  Originally, Congress was supposed to be the dominant power of the federal government, not the president who had replaced the British king.  Parties were not expected to matter as much as the balanced institutions with their built-in checks.

In 1992, Newt Gingrich, the House Republican leader, set out to change the system.  GOP members of Congress would commit to acting like a bloc and would loyally back the leader of their party.  In effect, the U.S. would adopt the parliamentary system.  It has worked and congressional Republicans, whatever they may think of Trump, are totally loyal to him.

This year, the power of the president was further boosted by the decision of the Supreme Court that the chief executive could exercise almost unchecked power.  The appointed Court, confirmed by the president’s party, became a prime driver of presidential dominance.

Underlying the changes that are taking place is a reversal of what had come to be accepted political morality.  It has been a version of the Golden Rule: “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.”

In practice, that meant there were certain unwritten understandings about political behavior.  The Constitution could not describe every possible form of government conduct, but the early leaders believed that certain customs would be observed.  They could not suspect that acceptable behavior would change as much as it has.

Trump was clearly behind the assault on the Capitol.  He radically denies undeniable facts.  He savagely attacks those who oppose him and shows no respect for many people who have earned respect, even if they disagree.  The way he denigrated John McCain, an American hero of unlimited courage, went beyond civilized bounds.

If not dead, the constitutional culture is seriously wounded.  Unwritten understandings are readily repealed. The Trump goal is nothing less than the transformation of government.

Voters may be ready to believe that Trump does not mean what he says when he lashes out or that he cannot carry out his threats, but they may find his claim is true: he will be a president unlike any other. 

Election could surprise pundits, transform politics

 

Gordon L. Weil

This election is different.

The polls say it will be decided by a handful of votes, but they could be flat wrong.  The most responsible pollsters admit that they could be wrong, and that they may be following each other in a herd.  Survey forecasts have become nothing more than conventional wisdom right now.

Candidates and campaigns on both sides have been showing signs of desperation and panic.  While that may be caused by pollsters’ forecasts, it could well reveal their own confusion.  And fear runs deep.

The main difference in the election is obvious and could be critical.  It pits a former president trying to make a comeback against the current vice president, a non-white woman. 

More than most past elections, this one is dominated by fear. The cause of confusion and fear is the daily data fix of the polls.  Polling has become an art, not a science.  Successfully completed interviews yield a poor sample of the voters and are subject to arbitrary and questionable adjustments made by competing pollsters. 

For many reasons, the polls may not forecast the election.

Polls themselves.  Their unrelenting predictions of a close race could create their own reality, influence voters, and have direct but unmeasurable effects. 

Lies.  People lie to polls.  Campaigns and their allies, including foreign governments, lie to voters.  The social media, hiding behind America’s cherished free speech, have become a political cesspool.  The effect of extreme charges offered as the truth is unmeasurable. 

Loyalty.  Donald Trump has extraordinarily loyal followers, allowing them to justify or ignore his extreme conduct, which goes beyond traditional bounds.  Their number and their turnout to vote are incalculable, but Trump counts on it heavily.

Traditional Republicans.  In 2016, Trump won with the support of people seeking change and loyal GOP voters.  This year, the opposition of traditional Republicans, led by former Rep. Liz Cheney, raises the possibility of significant defections. They may not answer polls, but they could turn out to be the real swing vote.

Women. The abortion issue has given Harris the answer to Trump’s loyal voters.  Women are motivated.  Their enthusiasm may help get out the vote, and it is possible that the existing majority of women voters over men will grow.

Men.  Some men do not want a woman as president.  They may have doubts Harris’ ability to negotiate with foreign autocrats, as Trump argues.  Also, the fact that the U.S. lags behind Britain, Germany, Italy, India and Australia and other countries in having chosen a woman leader may reveal something about the American electorate.

Youth.  Many of the new voter registrations reflect first-time, young voters.  The polls may not have been able to account for them. It is possible that many of them will respond to Taylor Swift and vote for Harris.

Economy.  The economy is healthy with recession and inflation fears quieted, but people ignore the big picture and still worry about their own pay and prices.   The economy should help Harris, but its individual effects boost Trump.  It’s the biggest single issue, but only for about a quarter of voters, so it may be overrated.

Biden.  Vice presidents don’t make policy, but they do gain valuable governing experience.  Harris may get credit for her role backing up Biden, but Trump has succeeded in linking her with the president, who remains unpopular because he was late to act on immigration and is held responsible for inflation.  Harris has had a tough time asserting her independence.

Age.  Biden was pushed out by his age, and Trump, obviously declining, would be the oldest president.  Whether his fading and the possibility of JD Vance as president matters to voters is unknown.  

Race.  The “browning of America” is inevitable, but strongly disliked by some people.  The immigration issue could well be about race.  Obama’s presidency may have raised racial sensitivity rather than easing it, and many objections to Harris may be about her being Black.  This may not be a question that people answer pollsters honestly.

Character.  The polls treat character as just another issue. But character may matter more than all issues for some voters.  Trump’s statements and threats make him highly controversial, and he has been the focus of this campaign.

Turnout.  The Democrats seek a big turnout, yielding solid majorities to end Trumpism.  The GOP worries and works hard to suppress the Democratic vote by raising false doubts about ballot security.  The surge in early voting could help the Democrats. 

Harris needs a convincing victory if she is to avoid prolonged battles over the election’s outcome and gain some political room to govern.   Trump would relish even a slim win that gets him to the White House.

Next Tuesday will show just how accurate the polls are and how different this election really is.