Moderate voters have nowhere to go

More American voters consider themselves politically moderate than either conservative or liberal.

So, why is our political system so deeply polarized between conservatives and liberals?   

Why don’t politicians cater to the middle of the spectrum?

One answer may be that our entire political debate has slid to the right.  With the exception of the hot-button, social issues, today’s liberals are a shadow of what it once meant to be a liberal.

Traditional liberals would be fighting for more programs to aid the disadvantaged, less military spending, tougher controls on financial institutions, and stronger protection of civil liberties.

Now, the Democrats, often considered the more liberal party for its historic support of positions like these, is reduced to fighting a rear-guard action to defend programs going back 50 or 70 years, like food stamps or Social Security.

That shift applies as much to so-called liberals on the Supreme Court as it does to Congress.

In short, most of today’s liberals look like yesterday’s moderates.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have moved to the right.  The tea party movement has the support of about a fifth of the electorate, enough for its activists to take control of the party and push aside traditional, moderate GOP leaders.

These newly active Republicans control the party apparatus so well that they condemn moderates who were party leaders long before them as RINOs – Republicans in name only.

Neo-Republicans have polarized political choice to the point that many would-be moderate voters may not find leaders to support.  Without a moderate alternative, they have no choice but to line up with one side or the other.

A recent independent national survey found that, when considering GOP efforts to block Obamacare, moderates oppose Republican hard-core tactics by more than 2-1.

In the battle for the moderate vote, the Democrats count on this split, while the Republican right seeks to convince the GOP that, because about half of all voters don’t like Obamacare, any tactic to oppose it will pick up some moderate voters.

In the struggle over Obamacare and the national budget, the small band of House Republicans who oppose the health program but also reject a government shutdown could be the core of a moderate political force. 

They offer a sign of principle over pure politics. Whether it is a political turning point remains to be seen.

Perhaps the notion of conservative-moderate-liberal is only relative, despite the right side of the GOP promoting ideological purity.

Maine may provide a good illustration of how ideology mixes with pure politics.

In 2010 governor’s race, Republican Paul LePage was the obvious conservative, Democrat Libby Mitchell ran as a liberal traditionalist, and independent Eliot Cutler offered a pragmatic alternative to both, especially LePage.  Thanks to the split in his opposition, LePage won.

In 2014, LePage will seek re-election. The Democrats will offer Mike Michaud, the second district congressman and member of the party’s moderate “Blue Dog” group.

Cutler, running again, is unlikely to profit from a weak major party candidate in the field, as he did in 2010.  As a result, he might end up as a liberal, attempting show that Michaud, the moderate, is too conservative for Democrats.

Cutler would move from moderate to liberal.  His problem may be that Michaud has a mostly progressive record, yet conservative enough to please all but hard-core LePage voters.

In the Senate race, GOP incumbent Susan Collins can legitimately claim to be a rare congressional moderate.  Her voting record produces a moderate rating and could make her hard to beat. 
 

Democrats might believe that Collins is vulnerable because she is not liberal enough for today’s voters. Shenna Bellows, the former executive director of the Maine ACLU and newly announced
candidate for the Democratic Senate nomination, may be betting on it. That presumption could be a mistake in a state where unenrolled voters outnumber Democrats or Republicans and may
see Collins as their choice.

Conservative Republicans may dislike or even challenge Collins, but her problem could be more that she is a good Republican than because she is a moderate.  She shows remarkable loyalty to the GOP, even after its Senate leader killed her transportation bill, partly because it had bipartisan backing.

Trying to appear moderate by proposing a back-down by the Democrats on a couple of 

Obamacare provisions before her party agreed to end the government shutdown, she merely repackaged the position of House GOP hard-core conservatives.

Being a moderate may be ineffective in Washington, as shown by Collins’ need to support the GOP conservative position in the shutdown showdown.

There now seems to be little chance of a moderates gaining power in Washington.  That would take Collins and other Republicans being willing to buck their more conservative party mates.