Gordon L. Weil
Donald Trump faces possible conviction by the U.S. Senate for provoking insurrection by sending a marauding crowd to the Capitol.
Impeached once previously, he was tried and acquitted by the Senate, allowing him to remain in office. But the voters ended his presidency, the delayed version of conviction.
Impeachment proceedings are like criminal trials. A person is charged, indicted by House impeachment, tried by the U.S. Senate in the “guilt phase” and, if convicted by two-thirds of the senators, removed from office. Though Trump is no longer in office, this second trial is like the “penalty phase” of a criminal trial.
He cannot be removed from the White House, but the Senate may convict him and then ban him from again holding federal office. It has already decided that it can try Trump even though he is no longer president.
Trump was first impeached for his attempt to induce the Ukraine president to help him discredit Joe Biden, the Democrat he would face in the election. In an almost perfectly partisan Senate vote, the Republican majority acquitted him.
That impeachment missed some other possible charges. He had separated children from their parents seeking asylum in the U.S. He used the presidency for personal profit. He actively undermined federal government action in dealing with Covid-19, the country’s worst public health crisis.
American voters were free to take these matters into account. They rendered their verdict, denying him a second term.
That should have settled Trump’s fate. But he refused to accept the election results and challenged them however and wherever he could, growing more extreme after each failure to overturn the election.
He argued that logic showed the election was stolen. Biden received more votes than seemed reasonable. Mailed-in ballots, rigged voting machines, and partisan counts were all proposed as causes. Though he had strong backing from many GOP voters, his complaints lacked evidence.
The courts rejected his complaints. State officials, their integrity challenged, refused to nullify verified results. The Attorney-General found no major fraud. Blatant misreading of the Constitution was rejected, even by Vice President Pence. Trump came close to using the Justice Department, a government agency, to push his personal cause.
Finally, there was force. The president would send a militant crowd to the Capitol with the clear intent to intimidate Pence and the Congress so they would overturn the official election results. Some Trump supporters could readily understand his fiery words as an order to use physical force to change the vote. They occupied the Capitol, a form of insurrection.
Having spurned honest election results and pushed extra-constitutional moves to remain in office, Trump was impeached a second time. He could not be removed, but the penalty phase could result in the Senate barring him from holding federal office again.
Before Trump, three presidents had become engaged in the impeachment process.
Andrew Johnson was charged with violating a clearly unconstitutional law and was acquitted thanks to the votes of Republican senators, members of the opposing party. Later, he would be elected a Democratic U.S. senator from Tennessee.
Bill Clinton was charged with actions having nothing to do with his presidency and was acquitted. His popularity increased, and he completed two terms.
Richard Nixon was charged with covering-up his campaign’s illegal actions to subvert the 1972 election. A House committee voted impeachment articles. When told he would surely be convicted by the Senate, he resigned. In effect, he was convicted. He never again held public office, and his reputation remains highly negative.
Impeachment and conviction of presidents is a partisan matter. Only once has a senator of the president’s own party voted against him, when Mitt Romney voted to convict Trump in his first trial. Given the serious charges against Nixon, many GOP senators were ready to convict him.
The question now before the Senate is whether Trump’s extreme attempts to wipe out millions of votes merit conviction. It would take at least 17 Republicans to join the Democrats to convict.
If the Senate does not convict him and strip him of the possibility of running again, he may choose not to run or the people might have another chance to be his judges.
Some Republican senators may believe that support from Trump’s voters is essential to their own ambitions and refuse to vote against him. The central question will be whether GOP senators will put condemning Trump’s role in the insurrection above their party and careers. How many will show their independence this time?
If partisan interest prevails, he will be acquitted. The precedent will be clear. There would be no action, beyond outright bribery or treason, that could produce conviction after impeachment of a president. The Senate would write another page in the textbook for the emerging imperial presidency.
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