Gordon L. Weil
News reports focus on the presidential election, which both
sides warn could have disastrous results.
But serious attention is just beginning to be paid to the
conflict between Israel and the Arab groups backed by Iran that could bring
more catastrophic results.
The ultimate danger of an all-out
regional war among nuclear armed states, looms.
And the risk of that Middle East conflict is directly tied to the U.S. presidential
election.
The crisis poses a deceptively simple choice. The outcome of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians could be either a one-state solution or a two-state solution. The disagreement among the key parties – Israel, the Palestinian Arabs and the United States – runs deep.
Both Israeli and Palestinian leaders prefer a one-state solution – though obviously not the same one. The U.S. has long favored a two-state solution, consisting of the countries of Israel and Palestine, but has achieved no success and, in fact, now faces a deteriorating situation.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supposedly wants to endlessly pursue the Arab terrorists to avoid facing a new election that could drive him from power and the criminal charges pending against him. But this misses the point. Despite saying what Washington wants to hear about two states, he has always opposed the creation of a Palestinian state.
He relies on far-right parties that openly favor a single state, but he is not their political captive; he agrees with them. October 7 and its threat to Israeli security gave Netanyahu the opening to pursue his objectives. Israel has practically obliterated Gaza and says that Lebanon, the Hezbollah base, is not a true country, so it can be bombed and invaded.
The Israeli goal appears to be complete control of Palestine including Gaza and the West Bank, which it now occupies. These areas might not be formally incorporated into Israel, to avoid creating an Arab majority there.
Hamas seeks to eliminate Israel and create a single Palestinian state in the entire territory. Not an established country like Israel with its formal military, its tool is terrorism – the use of violence, even against civilians, for political purposes. Hamas and Hezbollah have adopted terrorism as the best way to achieve their political objective.
While much of the world condemns their terrorism, the Palestinians might see it as helping them. It’s likely they worried about being overlooked when Saudi Arabia and Israel moved toward cooperation. October 7 suddenly got everybody’s attention and suspended the Saudi-Israeli plans. Saudi Arabia now won’t make a deal with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state.
Netanyahu may see a narrow chance to act before the U.S. presidential election. He spurns President Biden, whose withdrawal from the presidential race has allowed him and his diplomatic team to focus on trying to achieve a ceasefire. The Israeli leader may want to gain as much ground as he can before the election decides on his key ally.
Biden’s options are limited for the moment, because he is avoiding a major policy shift that could damage Kamala Harris’s chances. If she wins, he will immediately have a freer hand with Israel. If Trump wins, Netanyahu is likely to keep stalling until his preferred president takes office.
The American position is based on the belief that the only way to resolve the competing claims of Israel and the Palestinians is through compromise. The U.S. political system works best when parties reach compromises, but that can only happen when both sides are invested in the success of the system itself.
That is not the case in the Israel-Palestine confrontation. Both sides believe that anything less than complete victory is unsatisfactory. As a result, Israel persists in Gaza, dislikes a ceasefire and has abandoned the hostages held by Hamas. It also explains why no matter their losses, Hamas and Hezbollah will not quit. Defeat may serve to recruit more followers for them.
Not far below the surface of this war is the Israel-Iran confrontation. They are bitter enemies. Israel is a nuclear power, and Iran is not far from it. And, as the chief arms supplier of Russia, it might be paid off by gaining access to Putin’s tactical nuclear weapons. The current clashes could be the prelude to a dangerous, regional conflict with unknown limits.
Until November 5, domestic politics may limit the ability of the U.S. to exert its full force in the region. Biden is right to keep up as much pressure as possible until then. With more room to move after the election, he should deploy the political, diplomatic and military power of the U.S. to force the Gaza ceasefire that is the essential first step to pursuing a two-state compromise.
The time approaches when the U.S.
must put its interests first and act as a great power.
