Gordon L. Weil
Voters unhappy with the performance of President Trump are
looking for opportunities to express their discontent at the ballot box. House elections to fill vacancies offer them
little comfort thus far, because the seats have been solidly Republican. The only cheer for them may be that the new
members of Congress did not do as well as Trump did in last year’s election.
But major vote looms, and it is really all about
Trump. It’s when Canadians
elect a new parliament. The vote takes place on April 28. That’s somewhat
earlier than required by law, but political circumstances dictated the earlier
date.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party leader, had
grown unpopular. Many Canadians believed that he had not produced an economy
they could live with. Facing the inevitability
of a loss, he tried to sweeten the pot by ill-advised breaks for average people.
But that would disrupt his budget commitments, and his finance minister, who
would have kept them, quit.
His voting deal with other parties then collapsed, making early
elections inevitable. Trudeau resigned as
head of his party, which would then select a new leader, who would become prime
minister until the elections. It looked like the Conservatives, under Paul Poilievre, would
sweep into power.
Poilievre, from the province of Alberta which is the rough
equivalent of Texas, is a professional politician who had cast himself in the
model of Trump. Just as several European
countries had voted themselves to the right, he hoped to do the same in Canada. As in the U.S., many people seemed to want a
change from Liberal policies that had not produced promised results.
Into this mix of events came Donald Trump. He moved to raise tariffs in violation of the
USMCA
trade agreement that he had pushed in his first term. The relief for tariffs that he clearly
believed would cripple Canada was his plan to force the northern neighbor to
give up its nationhood and become the 51st American state.
His push for Canadian statehood had the same kind of effect
there as Pearl Harbor had brought about in the U.S. If there wasn’t instant unity, it came reasonably
close. Ideological sympathies and the export
of its oil to the U.S. showed Alberta to be somewhat less enthusiastic about the
response to the U.S. than the other nine provinces.
Poilievre was caught flat-footed. His natural ally had become the great nemesis. He saw his 25 percent lead melt to the point
that he trailed the new Liberal prime minister.
The new Liberal leader was quite different from his
predecessor, who had tried to placate Trump despite being called “Governor”
Trudeau by his fellow government chief. The Liberals overwhelmingly selected Mark
Carney, formerly governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England
plus having served as chair of the international Financial Stability Board.
In short, he knows his stuff and won’t agree with Trump’s
version of the role of tariffs. He also comes to the job with excellent
credentials and standing and, as a former hockey player, has made it clear he
won’t deal with Trump unless he and Canada are treated with respect.
Many Canadians seem inclined to support him, because he
will defend the country against any Trump moves. He recognizes the need for a long-term
relationship with the U.S., but he says the old days are “over.”
There is a third party in Canadian politics, the New
Democrats. They are similar to the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic
Party. It appears that they will lose
strength, as Canadian voters want to make a clear choice between Carney and
Poilievre. The Quebec Party wins seats
but cannot produce a government. That contest makes the election a clear
referendum on Trump.
While Poilievre has been forced to open some distance from
Trump, he remains the representative of a party that would move Canada in the
same direction as the GOP. Will voters
conclude that he will be better able to work with his political soulmate than
the technically competent Liberal leader?
Feeling runs high in Canada against the wild idea,
presented as if it could happen, of their country as an American state. Obviously, Carney is in a better position than
the Conservative and looks stronger and more experienced that Trudeau (or, for
that matter, Trump).
If Carney wins at all and especially if he wins big, it will
serve as a rebuke to Trump and his a la carte foreign and economic policy. Not only will it say that Canada will not succumb
to Trump, but that the Great White North will stand on its own as never
before. That could send the puck back to
the Americans.
