Advocates of Maine 'opening' belittle virus threat, but it could harm thousands

Maine CDC should provide better information

Gordon L. Weil 

The main argument of a legal case against Gov. Janet Mills' directives to protect Maine people is that the Covid-19 situation is not bad enough to warrant her actions. The economy should be “opened.”

The complaint misses four key points:

● Older Mainers are especially hard hit by Covid-19.

● Cumberland County, an economic center, has double the average virus impact.

● Maine's curve is not flattening.

● Some people may remain cautious, not boosting the economy, even if rules are relaxed.

According to the complaint, only a small percentage of the population is dying, so the state should be open. This theory is based on ignorance of the impact of Covid-19 in Maine, partly due to insufficient data and testing, plus back-of-the-envelope calculations.

The complaint amounts to saying that, if crime is low, police are not needed. No thought need be given to the role of the police in keeping crime down just as protective measures get little credit for limiting Covid-19 cases.

An unknown factor is the percentage of the population that has the illness without being aware of it. To be sure, they may be able to go about their business. But they are also able to spread Covid-19 to others who may not be so minimally affected.

The Maine CDC provides a daily scorecard on the illness. But its reports lack vital context. For example, as of last weekend, Maine CDC reported that 11.7 percent of the known cases involved people in their 80s. These people are only 4.9 percent of the state's population.

In short, Mainers in their 80s are 2.4 times above average in their likelihood getting Covid-19. Here is the table for all of the age groups used by the Maine CDC.

Age     Cases     Population     Proportion

<20        2.4%        21.0%           0.1

20s       10.9%       11.5%            0.9

30s       11.3%       12.0%            0.9

40s       15.4%       11.8%            1.3

50s       19.7%       15.0%            1.3

60s       16.2%       15.0%            1.1

70s       12.3%         8.7%            1.4

80s       11.7%         4.9%            2.4

The table shows that people in their 20s, 30s and 60s are just about as likely to contract Covid-19 as the average person. People under 20 are far less likely and people 70 and older are more likely. The data confirms that the older you are, the more vulnerable you are.

While those complaining about Mills' policies want the court to believe that only a tiny number of people would be affected, a calculation using the state's total population (population x share of 80s in population x share of 80s with Covid-19), shows that 7,641 Maine people in their 80s can be expected to contract the illness.

Older people succumb to the illness at a higher rate than others. According to the U.S. CDC, 59 percent of deaths from Covid-19 occur among people 75 and older.

In short, the case against Maine's efforts at protection, alleging a low incidence of death, targets seniors. The opponents implicitly accept that economic recovery is worth human lives, especially several hundred older Mainers. (Disclosure: I am an older Mainer.)

In an attempt to minimize the Covid-19 impact, critics suggest that the total state death rate has not increased very much. In other words, if there's little increase in the number of people dying, why worry about Covid-19?

This argument is false science. Its proponents have no idea about what drives the general death rate and how it has varied, under a wide range of influences, over the years. It's like saying a little snow a few days ago proves that the climate has not been growing warmer over decades.

Maine CDC reports the number of new cases each day and the cumulative number. To see the trend line of new cases over time, the best source is the New York Times. It shows the famous curve that needs to flattened so that health care is not over-stressed. Because Maine's curve is rising, it is not as encouraging as the lawsuit would make it seem.

While Maine CDC reports cases by county, similarly to the age question it does not determine how hard hit counties may be. By last week, Cumberland County had 48.7 percent of the known cases, but only 21.8 percent of the population. People there were 2.2 times more likely to contract the illness than the state average.

Daily reports may have led people to shrug off the Cumberland County numbers as being normal for the state's most populous county. Obviously, it was far from “normal.” Only two other countries joined Cumberland as being especially vulnerable – York (1.2 times) and Waldo (1.2 times). The discussion of the virus' impact never mentions this fact.

Mills relaxed rules in all but four counties, which had community spread. Along with Waldo, Kennebec saw requirements eased , though it had more cases than Androscoggin, still under higher protection. Presumably, the heavy loads in Waldo and Kennebec were due to effects at single sites.

The governor's order, which splits the state into two zones, contains a border problem. People in one county, living close to a relaxed rule county, can drive a short distance and go shopping relatively freely in stores that would be closed in their home county.

The border problem is obscured by the failure of the Maine CDC to provide Covid-19 impact information by municipality. Unlike other states, it declines to issue this information, making it seem that it is inappropriately trying to manage the public. This information could both aid local officials in supporting state efforts and warn residents where greatest caution is needed.

Asked about the stay-at-home rule, Mills seemed to say that it was still in effect. If a non-essential business could open but people could only leave home for essential purposes, there would be no use in opening non-essential businesses. This conflict needs to be resolved along with the border problem. Obviously, the stay-at-home rule will be honored in the breach.

It's possible that only truly isolated areas can have different rules. Maybe that's why Maine can relax its rules faster than other New England states. Relatively isolated, it is the only state bordering on only one other state and Mills' 14-day quarantine for new arrivals discourages the flow from elsewhere in the U.S. The border with New Brunswick and Quebec is effectively closed.

Morning Consult, a national polling organization, has added one more piece of data – consumer confidence by state. It plummeted in all states in mid-March when the impact of Covid-19 became well known.

Since then, some states have eased restrictions. Yet, in no state, notably those that have lifted tough rules or never imposed them, has consumer confidence in the economy recovered appreciably. Maine has gone from a March 1 rating of 111.3 to 74.9 on May 1, third lowest in the country.

The clear message is that governments may relax protection in an effort to restore the economy, but the real decision will be made by the people. They need to feel more comfortable about threats to their health before they will take advantage of all economic opportunity.

To help them make their decisions, people need more information. Maine CDC can do better.

Leaders, including Biden and Trump, challenged as women gain power

Gordon L. Weil

The final field exercise in Marine Corps basic training was the one time men and women recruits trained together. The task was to carry heavy ammo cans across a rope bridge.

A young man was in charge. A young woman trainee suggested to him how to move the cans without a person having to bear the full weight. The men were strong enough to do it, he said, and rejected her idea.

When the men struggled, she grabbed a can and showed them how to do it. They followed and the cans were moved in time, according to the New York Times story. Later, the designated leader told her, with what the reporter called “a tinge of humor,” that “the females can sometimes think.”

Congress had passed a law ending gender-segregated Marine basic training. But Marine generals still interpret the law to allow dual systems.

The story teaches a couple of lessons. First, there is a “dark state” in which unelected government officials pursue their own agendas. Critics may worry about anonymous liberal bureaucrats, but it turns out some of them are Marine generals.

The second and more important story is that women must be recognized. This case was a simply matter of brains over brawn. In a broader sense, the historic domination by men has to give way to the equality of the sexes.

This is the major change that society in many parts of the world is undergoing. Canada, the U.K., Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Liberia, Chile, India, Israel, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Ireland and Belgium have all had women leaders.

But not the U.S. Some criticize Joe Biden, the presumed Democratic nominee, for narrowing his vice presidential choice by vowing to select a woman. He may see picking a woman as the best way to be sure that his successor will be the first woman president.

But Biden faces his own problem relating to women. Public opinion demands close scrutiny of the hidden history of some men using their power to sexually exploit women. Tara Reade, a former member of his Senate staff, now accuses Biden of sexual harassment in 1993.

Like many other such cases, it is probably impossible to verify the charges by direct evidence. Instead, information about the behavior of both the accuser and the accused may influence judgments about the truth. Each person applies her or his criteria or opinions in evaluating the available information.

When he testified on his nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh faced a charge made by Christine Blasey Ford about his alleged abuse of her. He heatedly denied the charge, and it was left to each senator to make a judgment. The Republican Senate confirmed the nominee of a Republican president.

Direct evidence was lacking. Not lacking was the clear evidence of Kavanaugh's angry and undisciplined reply. Senators might have opposed his appointment, not because of the Ford charge, but because of his intemperate response, displaying demeanor far below what is expected on the Supreme Court.

Biden's response also raises concern, though for the exact opposite reason. After Reade made her charge, Biden did not immediately provide a personal response and or make all his records available. He did not subject himself to any questioning. His slow reaction allowed suspicions to be raised. Does this say anything about his conduct as president in a crisis?

Should Biden get a pass because he is running against Donald Trump, against whom there is evidence of sexual abuse? After all, it might be argued, we need urgently to defeat Trump and Biden is nowhere nearly in the same league.

That is the kind of judgment people will have to make. The truth about Reade's claim may never be known, but Biden could have helped himself and shown more respect for women, if he had been prompt and forthright in his response.

The media is also implicated. Trump's exploitation of women was revealed during the 2016 campaign and since he has been in office. But he never conceded any charge and forgave himself for his own words.

The media recognizes that Trump was elected despite his record with women, They have allowed the election to let the issues fade. Meanwhile, they demand that Biden come completely clean about any possible charges Reade may have filed 27 years ago.

Fair enough on Biden. But this is a new presidential campaign. Every time the media makes demands of Democratic candidate Biden, it should be making the same demands of GOP candidate Trump. The new campaign should not mean he gets a free pass just because he is president.

Politics the biggest problem in fighting Covid-19; Maine becomes battlefield

Gordon L. Weil

The biggest problem with combating Covid-19 is not the struggle of science to come up with an answer. It's politics.

The coronavirus is now the center of a war by the ideological right, led by the Republican Party, and against efforts, led by many governors of both parties, to let science set the pace of recovery.

The anti-protection forces are composed of three elements, whose apparent purpose is to support reopening the economy, even if that means sweeping aside measures that have worked in limiting the spread of Covid-19.

First, there are believers that personal freedom beats any common interest. They see government action to shut businesses, limit free movement and mandate wearing face coverings as illegal invasions of what should be their unfettered rights.

Second are right-wing opponents of issues from gun control to immigration who seek to exploit an opportunity to strengthen their movements. They may be able to tap into new pools of people who could share their views. And current Covid-19 policies, like shutting down immigration, might help their cause later.

When the list of “essential” businesses that could avoid a shutdown was published, the gun lobby noted the lack of gun shops. After it was belatedly added to the federal list, Maine GOP legislative leaders asked Gov. Mills to do the same. She did.

Third are Trump Republicans, who oppose governors undertaking necessary but unpopular measures, as a way of rebuilding support for President Trump and other Republicans. By making reopening their cause, they hope the economy kicks back into high gear, an essential element of the Trump campaign and helpful to Republicans riding his coattails.

Now Maine Republican leaders want the Legislature to come back and strip Mills of the emergency powers they joined in giving her by voice vote when they left Augusta. Their claim, refuted by the governor, is that she did not consult them sufficiently.

They did not attempt to create a bipartisan group, but made the appeal purely partisan. They apparently figure that opposition to the stay-at-home, wear-a-mask rules will grow to a point that Mainers would line up with the GOP in favor of reopening and re-elect Susan Collins and even Trump.

With their emphasis on economic values over health risks, some opposition groups either inaccurately assert that the overall death rate has not increased or argue that added Covid deaths are the reasonable price for people getting back to work. At the same time as the Trump administration pushes reopening, it openly recognizes there will be a major increase in cases and deaths.

Many governors, ranging from Janet Mills in Maine to Jay Inslee in Washington, emphasize the health of their citizens and follow the warnings of science about the risks arising from an unknown and deadly illness. Their states have produced better health results than others that are more politicized.

Their opponents want to exploit unhappiness with their tough measures. Opposition is also based on a desire to distract attention from the failure of the federal government and some states to be prepared for the crisis or to react to it in a timely and appropriate manner.

The federal government should have been better prepared. Its reserve of medical supplies was supposed to be sufficient to meet emergency national needs. A presidential administration in office for three years cannot blame earlier presidents when it has done nothing, even after having been warned.

Instead, it simply changed the role of the national reserve by stating it was meant only as a backup to the states. The market power of the federal government in buying needed medical supplies was lost, forcing states to compete with one another and other countries with poor results.

In 1951, the Epidemic Intelligence Service was created. It is composed of thousands of trained medical personnel who know a lot about handling a crisis such as the U.S. now faces. It includes “disease detectives.”

Its policies suggest that there should be a single, reliable spokesperson. That person, who must convey bad news and tough rules, should be a scientist, not a politician. By having a single spokesperson, the message can be conveyed clearly. And this person should always show compassion and sympathy.

Maine does well in following E.I.S. practices. Dr. Nirav Shah, the state CDC director, is the spokesperson. Mills does not offer medical opinions but explains what she is doing, using the powers given her by the Legislature. While Shah appears daily, she does not.

Contrast Maine with the daily federal briefing, usually dominated by Trump. There are several spokespersons and they contradict one another. At first, Trump downplayed the threat, hoping, using his word, that he could be the “cheerleader” for an early recovery, helpful to his reelection. He displays ignorance of science and research. Politics matter more than health.

Covid-19 can be brought under control, even without a universally effective medicine or a vaccine, by limiting the spread so that its dwindles. That can be done by everyone wearing a face covering. But it takes time, full participation and keeping the effort out of politics for that to work.

Politically, it takes some courage to require compliance. It is more appealing to favor unfettered freedom.

The opponents of fighting the spread have raised the issue. By advocating rapid reopening, they have also raised the stakes. In the end, it's up to each person to decide.

Covid-19 fight will bring inflation, higher taxes

Gordon L. Weil

Fighting the health and economic impacts of Covid-19 costs a lot of money.

The government has pumped out trillions of dollars to support urgent health care and to help people and companies survive the loss of jobs and business activity. Spending and lending at this level has never happened before.

These massive outlays result from the lessons learned in both the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession, a dozen years ago. Previously, Congress had reacted slowly and with too little financial support for the economy. The Federal Reserve played only a small role, at least at first.

Recovery from the Depression took more than a decade and was ended by massive spending for World War II. Recession recovery dragged on almost as long. In both cases, spending was limited by Republican opposition to increasing the federal debt.

With strong bipartisan support, Congress has passed four rescue bills with a $3 trillion price tag. Aid is supposed to cover some personal and business income losses until the economy opens again. No money was raised to cover its cost.

Before this virus spending, the federal government was on track to run a $1 trillion deficit this year. With the virus outlays, deficit spending could push the federal debt to nearly $22 trillion. That's a new record.

That debt will have to be repaid. Government tax revenues will decline during the crisis, and taxes cannot be raised now, so the added debt will not be offset by revenues. It will keep growing, but must be paid off by future government revenues.

Some critics say we should not be overly worried. Interest rates are close to zero, so the debt will grow only slowly as unpaid interest is added to the debt over time.

They have also come up with an optimistic way of looking at the size of the federal debt. If you measure debt against the size of the economy, it does not look so bad, especially if the economy grows faster than the debt. Future prosperity could pay today's bills.

That was the theory behind the big GOP tax cut in 2017. Of course, it would raise the deficit, the annual budget shortfall and debt, the total amount government owed. But the reduction would encourage growth, which in turn would produce the tax revenues to more than offset the shortfall caused by the cut.

It didn't work. Even before the Covid-19 crisis, new tax revenues did not come close to covering their cost.

The GOP had traditionally accused the Democrats of “tax-and-spend” policies and creating deficits. Once in power, Republicans warmed to increased outlays and adopted “borrow-and-spend” policies. Using debt, they even had room to lower taxes. And most Republicans abandoned their dislike of deficits.

Debt may have reached the point where repaying it out of federal revenues would require impossibly large tax increases. The more likely solution is to make the dollar worth less and repay the debt with cheaper dollars.

The purchasing power of the dollar would be reduced. Prices would increase. Though people might be paid more dollars, their higher incomes would produce higher taxes, used to pay down the debt. Its amount would not have changed, but each dollar used to repay it would be worth less, making it cheaper.

One word explains this process – inflation. Everything would cost more except the debt. Even with more dollars, people would face higher living costs. They would lose purchasing power.

Add to all this the Federal Reserve. Having seen the slowness of action by Congress and unsure about its response, the central bank has moved on Covid-19 with greater force than ever in its history.

Congress spends; the Fed lends. It has created money and loaned trillions, much more than Congress has spent. It buys federal government debt and bank loans to businesses. To pay back those loans, businesses will have to raise prices, fueling inflation.

The Fed supposed will be paid back, but in those future, cheaper dollars. Any defaults by borrowers will be covered by the federal budget.

Then, there are the states. The federal government can deficit finance, but states cannot. In effect, states want to shift their deficits to the federal government.

Eventually, there will have to be tax increases. Add to that inflation and reduced purchasing power. Deficits and debt cannot continue at current levels indefinitely. The combined cost of the existing deficit budget and Covid-19 outlays must be paid and tax increases cannot cover it.

The price of today's massive debt will most a major tax increase, but most if it will take the form of a reduced standard of living.

People, not Trump or Mills, will decide on opening as Covid-19 lessens

Maine faces major challenge in restarting business

Gordon L. Weil

Who will decide when to begin to open the economy as Covid-19 fades?

President Trump? After a false start, that's clearly out. State governors? Legally, but not likely.

Government has mandated limits on individuals and businesses. People are often told to stay at home except for venturing out for essential purposes. All but essential businesses, often broadly defined, must be closed to the public.

From the outset of the arrival of the virus, the country reacted as if the crisis would be brief. Aid to businesses and workers would tide them over while the coronavirus was brought under control. Almost unprecedented protective measures were imposed, but in the belief they could soon be lifted.

In effect, government action was grounded in remarkable faith in science to come up with an effective treatment in a matter of months or rapidly to develop a vaccine.

Until science triumphs, government patches and protects. The patch is the massive action by the Federal Reserve and Congress, pouring funds into the economy to maintain some personal and business income. The protection is “stay-at-home” and lock-downs.

Discovery of cures is usually slow and uncertain, not a recipe for quick recovery. But the economy cannot be put on hold for an endless period. Governors must come up with policies for “opening” their states. That is proving to be difficult.

Gov. Janet Mills faces an almost impossible challenge. Oxford Economics, a research firm, finds that Maine will be the hardest hit state by the Covid crisis. Its older population and dependence on tourism

plus a retail economy with many small business and self-employed people combine to make recovery unusually difficult.

Seniors must continue to be protected, but Maine needs an influx of people to its lodgings and restaurants and to occupy their second homes. The obvious problem is that they may bring the virus with them, even if they are unaware of it.

Federal guidelines focus on the stabilization and decline of virus cases. Much depends on testing, but, right now, it is overrated. There are insufficient testing supplies, and their effectiveness is questionable. So the date remains elusive when all are tested and those cleared can go to work.

Maine's progress has been good, though it is not yet evident that the state has reached its peak in new cases. It may benefit from its relative isolation with the Canadian border effectively closed and self-quarantine regulations and shuttered accommodations discouraging the flow from elsewhere.

While there is general recognition that science, not government, calls the shots, the economy cannot wait for months or even a year with current cutbacks. Many people will resist being kept at home. Governors will have to allow for gradual opening.

In Georgia, the governor began opening his state last week. But many people and businesses did not change their protective stance. One mayor there received requests for guidance. She said she responded: “Don’t look to government to tell you what to do. If you want to go and get your hair done, that’s on you.”

That's the kind of advice Mills and other governors may have to give as the economy reopens. Not the president, not the governor, but the individual will decide.

It's possible that a vaccine will become available this year, which could reduce the risks of reopening. But behavior may have been changed by the initial Covid-19 experience, especially for the most vulnerable. Even with a vaccine, reopening would be cautious and and decided by each individual.

The state role may be to allow people to take whatever risks they want, provided they don't increase the risk for others. And it can issue mandates that would enhance the freedom of the most threatened.

Stay-at-home and business closings will eventually be relaxed, but wearing masks, which prevent taking in the virus, or face coverings, which prevent spreading it to others, may be mandatory for the long-term. Similarly, social distancing could be maintained, though it would undercut dining out or attending large events.

The result of a policy combining state safeguards and individual decisions could be a self-segregated society. Many people, either because of scientific gains or indifference to risk, may decide to live as freely as possible. Others, including the most vulnerable – seniors and those with illnesses, might stay home.

Whether this course of action would work is unclear. If Covid-19 brings even more serious health problems like blood clots or opening society without an effective vaccine causes the resurgence of the virus, even greater changes in our lives and the economy may be inevitable. Right now, uncertainty reigns.

The most obvious challenge for federal and state governments and individuals struggling with Covid-19 is its menacing mystery.

'Opening' protesters gamble with virus, putting their rights above others' lives

Gordon L. Weil

Let's abolish the police.

That's just a modest proposal made possible by the low crime rate. The police are a drain on taxpayers when there's little for them to do.

Similarly, we should end social distancing, masks and stay-at-home orders, because the number of Covid-19 cases has peaked. It's time to get on with our normal lives. It's possible that a few extra people would die, but not many. Besides, they are mostly old people.

Not good ideas? The presence of the police is the main reason crime is under control. Covid-19 cases have slowed thanks to government-mandated protective measures that are reducing its spread.

The real and growing problem is that some people do not understand how this works.

The best case for opening would be that people need to work and collect their pay to cover the basic cost of living, and some people are simply bothered by prolonged stays within the four walls of home.

But many protesting state government requirements to reduce the spread of the virus say their reasons are not mainly about personal economics or peace of mind. They resist government action that they claim limits their freedom. They want to self-liberate, not self-isolate.

Angry people in the streets protesting actions to reduce the lasting effect of the virus are being organized by a right-wing coalition, including the Trump presidential campaign.

Interestingly, among the demonstrations against action by governors to limit the spread, a crowd gathered to oppose the Republican governor of Ohio, the conservative leader of a state essential to Trump's election effort.

The Ohio demonstration illustrates a split persists between Trump Republicans and traditional Republicans who support their governor. In some southern states that have been Trump strongholds, governors are already easing anti-spread measures.

In understanding the drive to “open” the country, there are economic and health realities. Even if government anti-virus action came to a halt, opening the country would not bring a quick return to the levels of health and the economy that existed before the coronavirus arrived.

Any reopening will be gradual. Change will come to places with less chance of people having undetected Covid-19. That may be less densely populated areas, though that's not yet a certainty. It will also come to those activities in which people are not in close contact with one another. Playing golf may come ahead of dining out.

The economy will not boom to serve unmet demand. The aftermath of World War II is cited, but the national economy then had been subject to wartime rationing. When the lid came off, people bought cars and millions of veterans wanted new homes.

Now, the economy is coming off a sustained boom. There is little unmet demand, so there is not likely to be an explosion of purchasing. It's possible that people will have picked up some new habits during the crisis, leading to more saving and less consuming.

Government, the frequent target of Trump and the GOP, may take a bigger piece of economic activity. It's possible more funding will go to health protection. Greater attention may be paid to older Americans and others who are vulnerable.

As a result of these possible changes from the country as it was before the crisis, the economy may not return to the way things were as recently as January.

Even worse, if protective measures are lifted too quickly, especially without adequate testing to determine the true scope of Covid-19's spread, it is highly likely there will be a new surge of cases and deaths. Re-opening then could take years.

Trump and his supporters appear to believe that reopening the economy will restore strongly positive economic results quickly. If good times were restored and the virus seen only as blip on the boom, that should improve Trump's re-election chances.

If there were a new surge of Covid-19, the economy would have no chance of a rapid recovery and it might slow again. There might be a political price to pay for acting too soon. Governors do not want to take those risks.

For Trump, the calculation is different. The strong economy was his best argument for re-election. He chose not to cast himself as the unifying national leader in time of crisis, preferring to stick with his original plan of relying on the economy. Politically, he has gambled and needs re-opening, even with its risks.

Beyond the 2020 elections, opponents of anti-spread measures insist that personal freedom should be set above the common interest. Perhaps their demonstrations will focus popular attention on deciding the right balance.

Covid-19 crisis shows endangered seniors need greater attention

Gordon L. Weil

When gentleman bank robber Willie Sutton was asked why he robbed banks, it was claimed, though falsely, that he answered, “Because that's where the money is.”

If you could ask Covid-19 why it goes after so many people in senior residential centers, it would have to answer, “Because that's where the old people are.”

For whatever reason, Sutton liked robbing banks. If Covid-19 could set its own priorities, it would admit that it attacks seniors because they are the most vulnerable, making it easier to do its deadly job.

As people age, their immune systems, the body's mechanisms for fighting off invading illnesses, grow weaker. https://www.livescience.com/35908-aging-lowers-your-immunity.html It's natural. As they age, it is also likely that people have suffered from illnesses that have weakened their defenses, even if they seem to have survived in good health.

That's why the dosage of the annual flu vaccine is stronger for older people. It helps them fight off the virus despite the loss of some of their own immunity.

Many seniors live in retirement communities. Some cannot live on their own, because their health requires them to have access to care, sometimes from qualified professionals.

At one end of the spectrum of care are skilled nursing facilities and hospices. Because government health insurance may pay most of their cost, federal and state agencies impose standards of staffing and conditions on them.

But other communities may involve only the shared use of facilities, ranging from dining, to amusements, to exercise. These senior residence arrangements are lightly regulated, but are left to the market to determine costs and conditions.

Senior communities are growing as the number of seniors grows. In 2000, people over 65 were 12.4 percent of the American population. By 2030, they are expected to be 20.6 percent. https://www.statista.com/statistics/457822/share-of-old-age-population-in-the-total-us-population/ In other words, one person out of every five in this country will be a senior.

It is also possible that more seniors will be retired. While the recent trend has been for people to work until an older age, they may find it increasingly difficult to find jobs as the economy slowly recovers.

Seniors have been advised, where possible, to delay the start of receiving Social Security to maximize income. But, in the past few weeks, advice has begun to appear suggesting taking the federal payments earlier to be assured of some income when jobs are slow to come back. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/personal-finance/should-you-take-social-security-early-for-some-coronavirus-changes-the-math-on-waiting-until-youre-70/2020/04/10/e85486a8-7a6e-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html

Similarly, more seniors may turn to residential housing facilities because they are less costly than maintaining a home of one's own.

While it is known that seniors are far more likely to die from Covid-19 than the general population, insufficient data is available on the effect of the virus. Maine reveals only that more than half the cases are over the age of 50. https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/20/news/state/another-mainer-dies-as-coronavirus-cases-hit-875-statewide/ That both confirms what we already know about reduced immunity and hides much relevant information about how serious the problem may be.

Across the country state agencies are reporting that, at some congregate care locations, Covid-19 has spread rapidly and, in some places, has caused a spike in deaths. Evidence mounts that regulation has been inadequate either in toughness, inspections or both. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_200420&instance_id=17772&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=267859&segment_id=25542&user_id=dad4e9655de8f76c4cb3f9003974adeb

Some advocates of ending protective action appear to believe seniors are expendable. They accept the possibility of increased deaths as the price of opening the economy.

Short of such indifference to seniors, the solution might turn out to be a segregated society. Young people will go back to work, confident that, even if they contract Covid-19, they will survive. If older people need protection, they might find themselves unable to return to a normal life style.

For seniors, opening the country may mean closing it for them. Unless medical science produces a vaccine or medication that protects them, they may shelter in place for the long haul.

Unless government shares this kind of indifference to the problems facing seniors, it needs to take action.

Protecting public health will have to mean standards about conditions, staffing and emergency equipment that are applied not only to care facilities now subject to regulation, but to any congregate facilities for seniors.

Seniors should have a reasonable expectation that residential communities are taking steps to protect them from threats to which their immune systems can no longer respond.

While they do not all serve as health care facilities, they all offer special living arrangements for seniors. Just as they must meet higher fire protection standards, they should be required to meet certain health protection standards.

That also means more and better inspection both of facilities now subject to regulation and others to be added. Stronger sanctions are needed. If a senior residence falls below standards, government should have the tools to force it into compliance.

For Maine, this is both a special responsibility and an opportunity. With the oldest average population, the state needs to sharpen its focus on the well-being of the elderly. The first step would be greater transparency about the Covid-19 impact on seniors. Hiding behind patient confidentiality is unconvincing.

Beyond doing a better job of focusing on seniors, Maine could build its special role as a welcoming home for retirees. Even now, it is an obvious magnet for seniors. By strengthening its policies, it could boost its retirement role as an element of its economic growth.