The Trump Referendum

Gordon L. Weil

Voters unhappy with the performance of President Trump are looking for opportunities to express their discontent at the ballot box.  House elections to fill vacancies offer them little comfort thus far, because the seats have been solidly Republican.  The only cheer for them may be that the new members of Congress did not do as well as Trump did in last year’s election.

But major vote looms, and it is really all about Trump.  It’s when Canadians elect a new parliament. The vote takes place on April 28. That’s somewhat earlier than required by law, but political circumstances dictated the earlier date.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party leader, had grown unpopular. Many Canadians believed that he had not produced an economy they could live with.  Facing the inevitability of a loss, he tried to sweeten the pot by ill-advised breaks for average people. But that would disrupt his budget commitments, and his finance minister, who would have kept them, quit.

His voting deal with other parties then collapsed, making early elections inevitable.  Trudeau resigned as head of his party, which would then select a new leader, who would become prime minister until the elections. It looked like the Conservatives, under Paul Poilievre, would sweep into power.

Poilievre, from the province of Alberta which is the rough equivalent of Texas, is a professional politician who had cast himself in the model of Trump.  Just as several European countries had voted themselves to the right, he hoped to do the same in Canada.  As in the U.S., many people seemed to want a change from Liberal policies that had not produced promised results.

Into this mix of events came Donald Trump.  He moved to raise tariffs in violation of the USMCA trade agreement that he had pushed in his first term.  The relief for tariffs that he clearly believed would cripple Canada was his plan to force the northern neighbor to give up its nationhood and become the 51^st American state.

His push for Canadian statehood had the same kind of effect there as Pearl Harbor had brought about in the U.S.  If there wasn’t instant unity, it came reasonably close.   Ideological sympathies and the export of its oil to the U.S. showed Alberta to be somewhat less enthusiastic about the response to the U.S. than the other nine provinces.

Poilievre was caught flat-footed.  His natural ally had become the great nemesis.  He saw his 25 percent lead melt to the point that he trailed the new Liberal prime minister.

The new Liberal leader was quite different from his predecessor, who had tried to placate Trump despite being called “Governor” Trudeau by his fellow government chief. The Liberals overwhelmingly selected Mark Carney, formerly governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England plus having served as chair of the international Financial Stability Board.

In short, he knows his stuff and won’t agree with Trump’s version of the role of tariffs. He also comes to the job with excellent credentials and standing and, as a former hockey player, has made it clear he won’t deal with Trump unless he and Canada are treated with respect. 

Many Canadians seem inclined to support him, because he will defend the country against any Trump moves.  He recognizes the need for a long-term relationship with the U.S., but he says the old days are “over.”

There is a third party in Canadian politics, the New Democrats. They are similar to the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party.  It appears that they will lose strength, as Canadian voters want to make a clear choice between Carney and Poilievre.  The Quebec Party wins seats but cannot produce a government. That contest makes the election a clear referendum on Trump.

While Poilievre has been forced to open some distance from Trump, he remains the representative of a party that would move Canada in the same direction as the GOP.  Will voters conclude that he will be better able to work with his political soulmate than the technically competent Liberal leader?

Feeling runs high in Canada against the wild idea, presented as if it could happen, of their country as an American state.  Obviously, Carney is in a better position than the Conservative and looks stronger and more experienced that Trudeau (or, for that matter, Trump). 

If Carney wins at all and especially if he wins big, it will serve as a rebuke to Trump and his a la carte foreign and economic policy.  Not only will it say that Canada will not succumb to Trump, but that the Great White North will stand on its own as never before.  That could send the puck back to the Americans.

 

 

 

Israel-Palestine: Two-state, one-state or war

 

Gordon L. Weil

News reports focus on the presidential election, which both sides warn could have disastrous results. 

But serious attention is just beginning to be paid to the conflict between Israel and the Arab groups backed by Iran that could bring more catastrophic results. 

The ultimate danger of an all-out regional war among nuclear armed states, looms.  And the risk of that Middle East conflict is directly tied to the U.S. presidential election.

The crisis poses a deceptively simple choice.  The outcome of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians could be either a one-state solution or a two-state solution.   The disagreement among the key parties – Israel, the Palestinian Arabs and the United States – runs deep. 

Both Israeli and Palestinian leaders prefer a one-state solution – though obviously not the same one.  The U.S. has long favored a two-state solution, consisting of the countries of Israel and Palestine, but has achieved no success and, in fact, now faces a deteriorating situation. 

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supposedly wants to endlessly pursue the Arab terrorists to avoid facing a new election that could drive him from power and the criminal charges pending against him.  But this misses the point.  Despite saying what Washington wants to hear about two states, he has always opposed the creation of a Palestinian state. 

He relies on far-right parties that openly favor a single state, but he is not their political captive; he agrees with them.  October 7 and its threat to Israeli security gave Netanyahu the opening to pursue his objectives.  Israel has practically obliterated Gaza and says that Lebanon, the Hezbollah base, is not a true country, so it can be bombed and invaded. 

The Israeli goal appears to be complete control of Palestine including Gaza and the West Bank, which it now occupies. These areas might not be formally incorporated into Israel, to avoid creating an Arab majority there. 

Hamas seeks to eliminate Israel and create a single Palestinian state in the entire territory.  Not an established country like Israel with its formal military, its tool is terrorism – the use of violence, even against civilians, for political purposes.  Hamas and Hezbollah have adopted terrorism as the best way to achieve their political objective. 

While much of the world condemns their terrorism, the Palestinians might see it as helping them.  It’s likely they worried about being overlooked when Saudi Arabia and Israel moved toward cooperation.  October 7 suddenly got everybody’s attention and suspended the Saudi-Israeli plans.  Saudi Arabia now won’t make a deal with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state. 

Netanyahu may see a narrow chance to act before the U.S. presidential election.  He spurns President Biden, whose withdrawal from the presidential race has allowed him and his diplomatic team to focus on trying to achieve a ceasefire.  The Israeli leader may want to gain as much ground as he can before the election decides on his key ally. 

Biden’s options are limited for the moment, because he is avoiding a major policy shift that could damage Kamala Harris’s chances.   If she wins, he will immediately have a freer hand with Israel.  If Trump wins, Netanyahu is likely to keep stalling until his preferred president takes office. 

The American position is based on the belief that the only way to resolve the competing claims of Israel and the Palestinians is through compromise.  The U.S. political system works best when parties reach compromises, but that can only happen when both sides are invested in the success of the system itself. 

That is not the case in the Israel-Palestine confrontation.   Both sides believe that anything less than complete victory is unsatisfactory.   As a result, Israel persists in Gaza, dislikes a ceasefire and has abandoned the hostages held by Hamas. It also explains why no matter their losses, Hamas and Hezbollah will not quit.  Defeat may serve to recruit more followers for them. 

Not far below the surface of this war is the Israel-Iran confrontation. They are bitter enemies.  Israel is a nuclear power, and Iran is not far from it.  And, as the chief arms supplier of Russia, it might be paid off by gaining access to Putin’s tactical nuclear weapons.  The current clashes could be the prelude to a dangerous, regional conflict with unknown limits. 

Until November 5, domestic politics may limit the ability of the U.S. to exert its full force in the region.  Biden is right to keep up as much pressure as possible until then.  With more room to move after the election, he should deploy the political, diplomatic and military power of the U.S. to force the Gaza ceasefire that is the essential first step to pursuing a two-state compromise. 

The time approaches when the U.S. must put its interests first and act as a great power.