Gordon L. Weil
Welcome to neo-isolationism.
The 1940 version of America First was pure
isolationism. The U.S. could prosper and
avoid events in the rest of the world, buffered by the two largest oceans. Then, the aircraft of militaristic Japan and
the submarines of Nazi Germany eliminated the buffers and silenced American
isolationism.
America First is back.
The new National Security Strategy states, “the affairs of other
countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our
interests.” The new buffer is not mere
oceans, but entire continents – South America and Europe. Projecting President Trump’s sense of
victimhood, the Strategy focuses on bringing them into line with the U.S.
The purpose of the Strategy is “[t]o ensure that America
remains the world’s strongest, richest, most powerful, and most successful
country for decades to come….” Other
countries should help ensure the success of American objectives.
The Monroe Doctrine warned Europe against seeking to regain
control in newly liberated Latin America.
The U.S. would protect it from foreign intervention. That the U.S. might gain unwanted dominance
in some of these nations was largely ignored.
Generally, the policy worked, and Latin America became heavily dependent
on the U.S.
In Europe, the situation was strikingly different. Deep historical, national rivalries led to
brutal armed conflict. Despite American
hopes of avoiding Europe’s wars, the U.S. followed Britain and others into two
conflicts, which became world wars, and tipped the balance against the
aggressors.
After the Second World War, the U.S. sought to create ways
of preventing another European conflict.
NATO would serve as an integrated military command opposing growing
Soviet expansion, and the European Union would interconnect economies there so
tightly that war would become impossible.
The U.S. strongly backed both.
Elsewhere in the world, America’s enormous economic and
military power enabled it to dominate.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Pax Americana reigned. Given supposed U.S. benevolence, some analysts
thought it might last for good. But, as
America aided others to grow their economies, it reduced its own influence.
Trump came to believe that “American foreign policy elites
convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was
in the best interests of our country.”
Their belief, he found, was contrary to the wishes of the American
people.
From the outset, Trump argued that the U.S. was bearing too much
of the cost of defending Europe and other allies. He was correct that, in virtually all cases,
other countries depended on the U.S. for their national defense and for the
pursuit of their shared foreign policy objectives.
But his military posture does not cut American defense
spending. His trade policy, aimed at
making the U.S. more self-sufficient, raises domestic market costs. America First is worth it. Added government debt would be paid later by
another president.
In his view, the world would be dominated by the U.S., China
and Russia. Though it has no legitimate
claim to such a role, Russia rattled its nuclear arms and boldly invaded
Georgia and Ukraine, meeting little external resistance. Trump recognized that Europe and the U.S. had
opted for appeasement not opposition. He
admires Putin’s style, readily giving ground.
Trump can succeed in making his Strategy happen. The historical tragedy is that Europe
completely failed to take advantage of its potential to become a unified
economic, political and military force. European
unity lost its grand goals and became technocratic. It could offer no balance or constraint on
the U.S.
Europe’s demon is nationalism. European unity, was once a lofty hope, has
been lost in successive waves of nationalism, as best demonstrated by Brexit. Just as with Trump in the U.S., European
governments are moving to the right, stressing national identity. Instead of waning, nationalism is gaining.
The Trump administration encourages Europe’s trend to the
right. If it comes to share Trumpian
values and beliefs, he expects that it will align more closely with American
policy. If it insists on going its own
independent way, he might withdraw U.S. protection of Europe.
Trump wants Europe to boost its military strength and no
longer lean on the U.S., though that would increase European independence from
American leadership. As with other Trump
policies like trade, the more he succeeds, the more he reduces U.S.
influence.
Europe should have learned from the Ukraine experience that
it must defend its continent and can no longer rely heavily on the U.S. Trump sees only three great powers to the
exclusion of any rivals. So far, the
Europe-based “coalition of the willing” is not a new power, but just brave talk.
Ukraine gives Europe a new opportunity to forge unity, though
the effort requires painful political and economic compromises and sacrifices. Otherwise, Europe won’t become a fourth great
power, leaving unchallenged the authoritarian trio sanctified in Trump’s Strategy.
