Gordon L. Weil
Putin is poised to achieve his key objectives in invading
Ukraine. His goals were to reverse its
growing alignment with the West and to recover Russian-speaking areas in the
eastern part of the country.
He had thought so little of Ukraine that he believed he
would have an easy victory, possibly taking over the government and most
territory. But both Russia and the U.S.
were surprised by Ukraine’s ability to resist.
Russia committed itself to fight on, even as the conflict turned into
war, and the U.S. provided essential arms and munitions to Ukraine.
The U.S. and Europe were alarmed by the resurgence of
aggression in Europe, and the countries there feared that Russian ambitions
could extend further unless halted in Ukraine.
Under Biden, the U.S. shared their concern and determination to repel
Russia.
Putin was willing to cover his bet and make almost limitless
sacrifices to pursue Ukraine. The
Europeans committed to resist, but their military strength and armaments are
limited and mostly dedicated to their own defenses. They supply as much as they can, often acquired
from the U.S. for hard cash.
Both Finland, with an extensive Russian border, and Sweden
joined NATO. While these developments
might seem to be a setback to Putin, he appeared surprisingly unflustered. His reaction may be the result of conclusions
that events led him to draw about NATO.
As Europe tried to respond to what it saw as a real threat,
it became clear that few of the 32
NATO members have military forces that can project itself beyond their own
national borders. Only Turkey, France
and the U.K. have the forces under arms and the armaments needed for foreign
deployment.
France and the U.K., both nuclear states, have been creating
a voluntary coalition of willing countries that would contribute forces to
provide a barrier to Russian incursions into Ukraine after an end to
hostilities. But this coalition would
not engage in any combat on its own. Other
European countries are providing arms support and funding.
The Europeans have also pressed hard for sanctions, which
appear to have some effect on Russia. But, given its autocratic regime, its
people have no choice but to make the sacrifices Putin demands of them. So, he can maintain his offensive.
Because Putin has come to understand that NATO is reluctant
to directly confront Russia, he enjoys a significant military advantage. He can attack Ukraine without worrying about
major retaliation against Russian territory.
Plus, he makes vague nuclear threats that the West won’t answer in kind.
Ukraine effectively uses its drones to attack Russian
military and energy sites. But it
remains under relentless attack and needs outside support.
Keeping the war going, Putin still pursues a neutral and
weak Ukraine, vulnerable to a later wave of Russian aggression. That’s why he opposes the Coalition
of the Willing forces, even only as peacekeepers, being installed in
Ukraine. He may believe that the
Europeans will both understand their own limits, as he does, and grow tired of
a multi-year war.
The missing piece is, of course, the U.S. It has gone from the staunchest backer of
Ukraine to an American enigma. Trump had
planned on a quick swap of Ukraine land for Russia’s ending its military
action. But Putin had higher hopes, and Ukraine’s Zelenskyy could not cede
territory for a Trump-made deal with no long-term protection.
When that concept failed, Trump implied that the U.S. might
step up its military backing for Ukraine.
At times, however, he reduced such support and now demands payment for
any arms that would be supplied.
Trump has applied sanctions against Russia, even going so
far as to use them against its oil customers, notably India. The Europeans want more pressure, and Trump
indicated that he might be willing to follow their lead. So far, nothing more has apparently happened.
He has been even careful about backstopping coalition forces
if matters ever progressed to a ceasefire.
Without U.S. support, the coalition guarantee to Ukraine would be worth
little.
Putin can see NATO for what it’s worth, not much of a threat
and perhaps even vulnerable. He has just
begun testing Polish defenses. Given the
overwhelming influence of the U.S. in the alliance, coupled with Trump’s reluctance
to act, Putin may worry less about the West and perhaps launch more unanswered
incursions, while still hiding behind Russia’s borders.
Why Trump seems so impressed and influenced by Putin remains
unknown, yet it is the key to saving both Ukraine and NATO. Trump was right to push the NATO allies to do
much more, but that alone is not enough.
It still comes back to him.
NATO without Trump, as it well might be, meets Putin’s
goal. So does Ukraine without Trump.
The game’s not over, but right now, Putin’s winning.
