Trump-Harris race confused by wild speculation

 

Gordon L. Weil

Last December, I wrote a column headed, “Biden versus Trump? Not so fast.”  A month earlier, I had described a scenario in which Trump could face somebody other than Biden.

I recall these columns not to say, “I told you so,” but to underline again how much we should be skeptical of campaign punditry and polling.

Between now and Election Day, there will be a new and short campaign with former president Trump and Sen. J. D. Vance facing Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate.  That’s all we really know.

Within seconds of Biden withdrawing and endorsing Harris, the pundits hit the media. The range of subjects on which they began speculating was breathtaking, sacrificing thoughtful analysis for the sake of speed.  Notably, comments instantly criticized Harris, going tougher on her than it had on Vance, when Trump named him.

These shoot-from-the-hip opinions will probably prove worthless and will soon be forgotten, to be replaced by new rounds of punditry.  Right now, it is more useful simply to focus on the “known unknowns” about the race.

Why will Harris be the Democratic nominee?

Any challenger would have a tough time overcoming Harris’ advantage as the heir to the Biden-Harris campaign.  The campaign will be short, so the Democrats opted not to spend weeks in a nomination contest ending at an open convention. 

Does Biden’s withdrawal improve the Democratic Party’s chances for the presidency?

With Biden having appeared increasingly weak, voters may no longer worry about the age of both candidates.  Harris is younger and more connected to middle-aged and young voters.   Democrats, especially donors, seem to be enthusiastic about her.  That should improve the party’s prospects, but is far from ensuring a win.

Does the focus on Trump change?

He will now be the old man of the election and that could change perceptions of him and increase attention to his oratorical confusion and false statements.  Harris could exploit his weaknesses as Biden couldn’t and try to change the focus from being a referendum on Trump.  She might push her own agenda, while dismissing his attacks and recalling his legal woes.   

Who will the Democrats pick as their vice-presidential candidate?

They have the opportunity to avoid an elite image. Trump chose mid-American Vance, and the Democrats may be tempted to pick a male candidate from Arizona, Kentucky, Pennsylvania or North Carolina, an election victor in a GOP state who could help Harris in swing states.

Has the influence of women in the election changed?

With Harris heading the ticket, women might be even more engaged than they have been, because of the abortion issue.   The battle for the suburbs could turn on the votes of women determined to show up at the polls.  She may attract some supporters of Nikki Haley, the last GOP opponent to Trump’s nomination.

What about Black voters?

They were reportedly losing some enthusiasm for Biden.  Harris is a graduate of Howard University, a leading Black school.  That contrasts even with former president Obama’s education at Ivy League universities.  Her background could help motivate Black voters, who might swing the election.

Will there be debates and will they matter?

Both say they want to debate, but they must first agree on the media and rules. Trump may not want the CNN rules, preferring a format that allows him the chance to interrupt.  Harris may try to put him on the defensive in her own style, distinct from Biden’s or Hillary Clinton’s.  A debate could be the high point of the campaign and make the election into a real contest.

Is there something happening below the surface?

Voters pick the president. But who gets to the ballot box matters, and Trump’s GOP is ready to make voting access difficult. If he loses, Trump will inevitably challenge the result and is already preparing.  It’s not clear if the Democrats are ready to deal, quickly and effectively, with both attempts.

Could something unexpected happen?

Yes.  The debate, the assassination attempt on Trump, and Biden’s withdrawal have had major unforeseen effects.  Candidates are vulnerable in many ways, especially to their own failings.  A single unexpected event could still change everything.

Will pundits promote a clear view of the election?

Unlikely.  The “experts” change their views as often as they change their clothes.  They engage more in speculation than in careful analysis.  A single day’s news event becomes the foundation of their short-term take on long-term wisdom.

What about opinion polls?

Their problems in finding willing participants and phrasing questions are well known.  In this new political situation, they are likely to be unreliable at the outset.  Polls appearing just before the elections are likely to be the most valid forecasts.

Bottom line on the election?

Be skeptical. Avoid speculation. There’s a lot we don’t yet know.

As Trump advances, could a GOP Congress follow?

Gordon L. Weil

Conventional wisdom is dead.

No pundit’s opinion on the election could foresee the assassination attempt on Donald Trump or the debate debacle of Joe Biden.  Both events changed everything, especially for the Democrats.

Even before these developments, Biden struggled to stay even with Trump in the polls. This is not a good position for an incumbent president, even when running against a former president.  Now, Biden and the Democrats are in even greater risk of losing.

First, whatever the poor historical record on presidential assassinations, the attempt on Trump merits the strongest condemnation, no matter one’s politics.  There’s too much loose talk about violent solutions to political disputes, and it may make a potential assassin feel justified.  They aren’t and never should be.

The attempt impels us to look at the person who is president and their meaning to us.

When the Constitution created the office of President of the United States, the title described the person who was the formal chief of state and head of the federal government.  The much-revered George Washington could be succeeded by lesser leaders, because their role was restricted to heading a limited government.

By the time of the Civil War epoch, that changed.  The President of the United States became the leader of the American people.  Beyond overseeing the faithful execution of the federal laws, the president came to embody the political, moral and economic leadership of the nation.

Whatever his policies and practices, Trump comes across as a personality inspiring loyalty and respect from a large part of the population. The assassination attempt and his defiant clenched fist reply elevated his status even further. Brimming with confidence, he picked Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, sure to be absolutely loyal to him, as his running mate.

Whatever his policies and practices, President Biden comes across as a modest and goals-oriented president.  If you don’t want Trump, he represents himself as the solution. But he does not come as close as Trump to having the charisma and the aura of self-confidence needed by the nation’s leader.

While backing Biden and his policies, many Democrats seek his withdrawal from the race for the presidency.  His age has taken its toll.  While he might be right that he could competently serve, it is doubtful that he could provide the inspirational leadership that the country expects from a president.  Good enough is not enough.

If they have a chance of defeating Trump, it comes down to two possibilities.  Trump might commit an error that discredits him, but the assassination attempt has given him a lot of cushion. Or the Democrats could come up with a younger, compelling candidate who would provide Trump some real competition.

The current situation leaves the Democrats with problems in all three elections this year – for president, the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate.

The presidential winner sometimes has “coattails” on which House and Senate candidates ride to office.  This year, however, the Democrats must hope to win enough congressional control to block some of Trump’s moves, should he win.  Their success was already in doubt before the Trump assassination attempt.  If he has gained, his coattails may have grown larger.

A Democratic candidate who makes a strong showing even if they fall short, could help encourage the balance that would come between Trump and a Democratic Congress.  If the Democrats fail, they may be forced to spend years in the political wilderness.

Biden has seemingly been convinced that his path to victory would come from more closely aligning himself with Bernie Sander’s progressive policies. That may have the effect of leaving behind centrist voters who seek more practical policies and fewer partisan red lines.

Though not an exact parallel, look at the reelection of Maine Gov. Janet Mills, who defeated Paul LePage, her one-term predecessor and a Trump loyalist.  She occupied the middle ground, occasionally leaning to the right.  And she benefited from the abortion wars and her recognition that progressive Democrats had nowhere else to go.

The Democrats could readily select a Biden replacement who could follow the same pattern, especially if they were to pick a dynamic, centrist woman.  It would also help if they adopt a simple message and talk less about abstract “democracy,” when what they mean is simply obeying the law.

Trump’s message, “Make America Great Again,” is feared by many as a return to the bad, old days – more polluted, more unjust, more economically unbalanced.

The Democrats could also send a similarly simple message that might resonate.  A suggestion: “Democrats – the American Way.” That slogan could imply that MAGA, Sander’s “socialism” and economic and ethnic injustice are all inconsistent with the nation’s traditional aspirations.

The Democrats need a message about how they will solve practical problems and a strong candidate to deliver it. 

Biden, Supreme Court boost national unease

Gordon L. Weil

Two events – seemingly unrelated – reveal a major historical change taking place right now.

The first is the U.S. Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity.  The second is the heightened public sensitivity, caused by Joe Biden’s personal crisis, to the risks of our heavy dependence on the single person who holds the presidency.  The two are related.

Despite the belief that the Court decision was about a group of partisan justices showing their barely hidden support for Donald Trump, it was far more significant than that. It was a sharp turn in the history of the country.  What the Court decided applies to all presidents.

The question before the Court was the extent that a president – any president – is immune from criminal responsibility for their acts while holding the office.  It said there were three areas of presidential activity related to immunity.

First, when the president has been given power under the Constitution or acts of Congress and acted in line with that authority, they would be completely immune from charges.

Second, where the president acted at the “outer perimeter” of their legal authority, they are presumed to have immunity, though that presumption can be tested in court.  Charges would likely be brought by the Justice Department, an agency under the ultimate control of the president, who might assert immunity and prevent prosecution.

Third, if the president acts outside of their authority, they would have no immunity from prosecution.  Trump’s counsel has asserted that a president, as the commander in chief, could order the military to kill his political opponent and could not be charged with murder unless they were first impeached for the act.

Who decides on the type of presidential activity in question?  The Supreme Court’s answer is that the decision is made by the federal courts, and would inevitably end up at the Supreme Court.  If you had any question about checks and balances, here’s the proof they are dead.

This decision departed from the foundation of the country as laid out in the Declaration of Independence. The basic reason for the Declaration was to reject the unlimited power of the British king, who could do no wrong.  He was subject to no checks. The basic message of the Court decision is that the president can do no wrong, unless the Court decides otherwise.

The new decision does not overrule the power of Congress to impeach a president, but the Constitution makes it clear that impeachment is not punishment and does not decide the question of criminal responsibility.

Now, turn to Trump, who has promised his administration would take legal action against Biden and exercise unprecedented executive authority, and Biden, whose uncertain physical and mental health could lead him to similarly unrestrained use of power.  The possible actions of either of them gives heartburn to a significant portion of the population.

To be sure, the U.S. has little history suggesting that presidents normally carry out criminal acts.  And the issues surrounding the possible excesses of this year’s candidates may be an historical warning to avoid taking big risks in choosing presidential candidates.

If the possibility of presidential felonies is rare, the Court’s decision could have an effect that is more theoretical than real.  But its thinking may represent something more essential than White House criminality.

We may be focusing too much on Trump and too little on the fact that he has wide, popular support.  Many of his backers seem to favor a more authoritarian government, though a limited one.  They appear to want government to be both narrower and deeper.

Support for stronger central rule and less popular democracy is not limited to the U.S.  Though the left-of-center Labour Party won the most seats in the British Parliament, conservatives got more popular votes.  In the French elections, the conservatives equaled the moderates and left. The same is happening in Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary and Slovakia.

The Court’s decision may reflect a landmark, generational change. Post-World War II liberal democracy is losing ground to more authoritarian and nationalistic politics.  International agencies are weakening.  National governments are challenged both as regulators and service providers.

Because the Supreme Court has assumed a right to have the last word, not specifically given it by the Constitution, it may have turned itself into a prime political issue.  Congress was supposed to be the dominant branch of the federal government, but it has let its powers slip away.  A powerful president and an unchecked Supreme Court continue to rise.

The Court is dominated by a well-disciplined philosophy and is not the neutral umpire we were promised by Chief Justice John Roberts.  Just as compromise is missing in Congress, it is missing at the Court. 

These developments place us at an historical turning point, which demands our attention and concern.