Post New York primary.
Did you notice how many more people voted in the Democratic primary than
in the Republican? Clinton remains the
national vote-getting leader. By the
time of the conventions, she should have a pretty good start on winning the
national popular vote in November. That
does not mean an automatic win. Just ask
Al Gore.
Complaints mount that the process is “rigged”. The process predated most of the candidates,
so how is it rigged against Trump or Sanders?
The process is based on political experience in terms of motivating the
party faithful who work outside of the campaign season and, in the case of the
Democrats, giving their office holders some guaranteed influence. Closed primaries make sense if political
parties still make sense. Should dedicated
party workers have to battle for a candidate selected by visiting voters who
have no link with the party?
Trump. It looks like
he may be trying to appear more “presidential” (whatever that means) now that
he is closer to winning the GOP nomination.
Will a more serious Trump continue to have his strong appeal for those
who originally boosted him? Maybe he now
has “the big mo”, momentum toward the nomination. Of course, his problem, though only in the
general election, would be in trying to run away from some of the things he
said earlier in the campaign.
Cruz. He has no realistic chance of getting enough
delegates, so he wants to make sure Trump doesn’t. As the saying goes, “he’s drinking his own
bath water”. That’s because he believes
Trump’s delegates will desert him after the first ballot and swing to Cruz. Who knows?
Maybe if Trump is really close to what’s needed, delegates would feel it
a mistake to deny him the nomination, meaning that Cruz delegates would
defect. And Cruz might not be an
appealing general election candidate.
Remember, he’s more conservative than Trump and he’s nasty and means it.
Kasich. The New York
Times thinks he should stay in the race though he trails Rubio who dropped out.
It says: “Mr. Kasich is not an exciting
candidate, or even a political moderate. But he is the most sane-sounding individual in
the Republican field, and has been from the start. Unlike his rivals, he’s shown a willingness to
play by the rules.” Thrilling
endorsement. The GOP nominee should pass
a sanity test. Kasich’s faint hope is
that a deadlocked convention will turn to him.
Clinton. She is the
Democratic nominee. With that in mind,
she should calm down and look more “presidential”. She lets Sanders make her so angry you could
wonder how she would deal with America’s adversaries or even Republicans. Too much emphasis is placed by the media on
her unfavorable ratings. The question
will be if voters prefer her to the other candidates. In fact, that is the way it has always
been. And she should more explicitly
show concern about Sanders’ issues.
Sanders. He has
raised serious questions but the answers really do require the revolution he
wants. No revolution this year, though
the Democrats have a real shot at the Senate. The Times thinks he should stay in the race
like Kasich, in this case to keep Clinton pulled toward his positions and to
keep his supporters from wandering away.
OK, so long as he does not let his desperation become a way to damage
Clinton.
A personal comment on Sanders. In his Vatican talk, when he talked about his
country, he was only critical of it. A
U.S. senator in an international forum ought to have something positive to say
about a country in which “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders can become a
serious candidate for president.
Conventions and polls.
The media likes to say who would beat whom if the election were held
today or what will happen at the GOP convention. The media is wrong, though it is impossible
to know what’s right. People react as
the process moves along and their perceptions change. Maybe Trump will win the nomination on the
first ballot and turn out to be a strong challenger to Clinton. Maybe Clinton has it locked up and this is
all a waste of time. More people will
make up their minds after October 1 than may provide the margin of victory.