Poltical Thoughts 8 -- Conventional wisdom

Though important primaries remain in both parties, there is now an unusual focus on the conventions.  It seems at least some of the candidates don’t fully understand their own party.

By way of background: delegate selection.  There is no single method and the two parties differ.  Important to remember that the selection of the candidates is not an official government function.  The parties are essentially private organizations that get to set their own rules.  The same is true for the conventions.  They are not continuing bodies, so they get to set their own rules each time they convene.

It may seem self-evident to many, but the selection of nominees is a political process, meaning that 

politicians will try to turn it to their advantage.  Nothing unusual about politicians being political, right?  Not governmental (though that’s pretty political, too).

GOP.  Republicans select delegates state-by-state.  Some are winner-take-all if the leader gets more than 50% of the vote.  Some states select delegates both statewide and by congressional district. Some use proportional voting.  Many really select delegates to county or state conventions who are supposedly pledged to a presidential nominee.

Trump.  Apparently, he thought delegate selection was like a public election, and he should get the national delegates proportional to his popular vote.  He protests that isn’t happening.  (Funny, I don’t remember hearing him protest Bush-Gore 2000 result.)  He has had too little campaign organization and probably failed to have a staffer working on delegates one-by-one.  That would have ensured people selected as Trump delegates were really loyal to him.  In fact, they may be bound to vote for him for one ballot but can desert him afterwards.  In fact, his share of delegates is higher than his popular vote share.

(A pause here for Civics 101.  In the presidential election, we vote for Electors who formally vote for the president.  (Maine gets 4.)  Even they can and sometimes do renege on their commitments.)

Cruz.  He seems to think he can snare some Trump delegates, infuriating the Donald.  About the best Trump can do is win even bigger majorities.  Cruz also wants new GOP convention rules to favor his selection.  The rules will be written by a committee dominated by whoever is the frontrunner and decided on the floor.  Cruz obviously believes he needs better rules because he won’t have enough delegates.

The Ryan Rule.  When he took his name off the presidential table, Speaker Ryan said the nominee should be someone who has contested for the nomination.  In theory, that could be anybody from Fiorina to Carson to Christie to JEBush.  What he probably meant was Kasich.  The statement went a long way to legitimizing the continued campaign of the Ohio governor who has only won in one state.  Guess?

The GOP Convention.  More people say it will be contested.  I continue to say that it either will go to Trump or be negotiated.  If negotiated, that will take place before the first ballot based on commitments, many of which will not be kept later.

Democrats.  Have masses of superdelegates who don’t have to run for the honor.  State delegates awarded proportionately.  The purpose of the superdelegates is to replace the “smoke filled room” by people who have to face their own re-elections and don’t want to be sunk by an impossible presidential nominee (see GOP, though it actually has a handful of similar delegates).  The media have pushed the myth they will simply go along with the candidate having the most elected delegates.  May have worked that way in practice but not a rule, though it will again work that way.

Clinton.  Unless I’m wrong about superdelegates, all Clinton has to do is win a reasonable share of the remaining delegates to be elected.  If this matters to anybody, she has more popular votes than any other candidate in any other party.  Barring a major gaffe (minor ones will pass), she has it locked up.  Probably will slide on the emails, unless somebody can prove harm was done.  Oddly, she’s probably protected by Snowden’s revelations.

Sanders.  He was a better candidate when he was free to be decent because he thought he had no chance.  Unless he steps hard on his friendly PAC, it will look like he thinks it’s all right to harass Clinton delegates, who are loyal.  Does not ingratiate a candidate with his (is it his?) party.

Democratic Convention.  Boring.  But looking forward to Sanders’ speech.