Political Thoughts – 10 Trump and Clinton head for the conventions

Yogi Berra was right that “it’s not over until it’s over,” but still Clinton seems to be there and either Trump will be there or we will see the most interesting political convention since the GOP in 1976.

Trump.  His momentum should get him enough convention delegates to avoid a convention war.  If not, he will have enough disgruntled supporters to devalue the nomination if it goes to somebody else.

He seems to sincerely believe that his style of campaigning is what will have brought him the nomination, so he will stick with it.  He can make this a campaign about women by continuing to attack Clinton because she is “weak.”  Not really a disguised code word and one that should get women and sympathetic men into action to support her.

Trump’s electoral problem is that he has attacked so many constituencies that it is difficult to see how those who remain unscathed can produce enough votes for him.

Clinton.  Her problem is her negative rating, though it’s not as bad as Trump’s.  That may seem small comfort, but, after all, an election is about comparisons between candidates.  Her negatives will be affected by the Justice Department decision on her use of the home computer, but otherwise, they will probably fade somewhat.

She threads a fine line.  She cannot go as far as Sanders to the left, probably because she is simply not that liberal.  That’s why the Republican business community, the backbone of the mainstream could grow to like her.  That explains the Koch consideration she gets.  It may not make her more popular with Democrats, but what’s a better alternative?

Sanders.  He is now running to influence the Democratic platform, and he will. Clinton would be wise to allow him his day.  If he doesn’t handle his opportunities carefully, he may have his activist organization after the campaign, but he will quickly fade.

As for his platform strategy, if you tested Democratic candidates for president and Congress on the content of the platform a month after it was adopted, most would fail.  Candidates have their own platforms, and party platforms (maybe like party organizations) mean little in practice.

The tone of the campaign.  Clinton is wise to appear “presidential” and willing to seek compromises. Leave the heated rhetoric to Trump.  Americans do expect a certain amount of decorum from their president.  So Clinton should remain calm. 

Also, she might not greet every audience with her mouth agape in feigned joy.  I know, she’s supposed to make you think she’s having a ball, just enjoying the dickens out of the campaign.  Recognizes friends in the crowd as if she’s surprised they are there.  Such artificial happiness only promotes the idea that she is not honest.  Nobody could enjoy campaigning that much.

Oh, BTW, it’s time for her to put together the proverbial truth squad.  Trump makes a fun target, far more vulnerable than she is.

Too early to talk about running mates, but not too early to think about it.