Political Thoughts 7 -- After Wisconsin

Trump.  An analyst wisely pointed out that Trump listens to his own counsel and nobody else’s.  His only concern is winning.  So he freewheels and says whatever he thinks will induce voters to make him the winner.  He does not need advisors, because he does not develop policies in the usual sense.  He has ignored the need to show competent advisors to demonstrate that he would have a competent administration.  He so deeply believes in his own supreme skills that he thinks he can solve any problem once he gets to the White House.  When he says he can act “presidential” that means he can stop saying whatever pops into his mind and suddenly show off his competence.

Signs of gross incompetence are any proposals that would legitimately cause retaliation by other countries against the U.S.  Like interrupting monetary transfers (think how to pay for the Mexican wall), torture, world nuclearization.

That might work in a short campaign, but he is having trouble sustaining it.  He can get himself into difficult political dead ends, contradict himself or even be forced to retract.  All of that weakens his appeal to voters who like his brash and independent style.

Cruz.  He sees himself as the last man standing, the only alternative to Trump.  If he were to succeed, he would represent the triumph of the tea party.  Is the GOP ready to move its establishment that far to the right?  Don’t forget, he alienates a lot of voters and a lot of party leaders.  So, if it succeeds in stopping Trump, does the “stop” movement then move on to Cruz?  Obviously, he doesn’t think so, believing that only he and Trump have the divine right to the nomination based on their primary performances.  Actually, the presidential selection process simply doesn’t work that way.

Kasich.  He stays in the race to pick up the pieces when the GOP rejects both Trump and Cruz.  He wants to be the real last man standing.  But he’s a proven loser, and the GOP might prefer to find a fresh candidate, right off the shelf with no primary losses.  Paul Ryan is obvious, but he is probably serious about not wanting the job right now.  So, notwithstanding Kasich’s hopes, if Trump and Cruz fail, a real possibility, the likely GOP nominee is “somebody else.”

Sanders - Clinton.  His key to winning is simple.  Win enough states that the superdelegates abandon Clinton.  Highly unlikely.  But, if you see one big name Democratic leader publicly switch, others would feel free to follow and the race will come down to the wire.  Otherwise, Clinton is inevitable partly because her problems are not big enough to make voters prefer Trump (or Cruz).  Against a better GOP candidate, the Dems would remain unlikely to believe Sanders, a real liberal, could win.  The corrective?  If he wins big in New York and California.  The likelihood?  Slight.