Political Thoughts 9 -- Are we there yet?

Post New York primary.  Did you notice how many more people voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican?  Clinton remains the national vote-getting leader.  By the time of the conventions, she should have a pretty good start on winning the national popular vote in November.  That does not mean an automatic win.  Just ask Al Gore.

Complaints mount that the process is “rigged”.  The process predated most of the candidates, so how is it rigged against Trump or Sanders?  The process is based on political experience in terms of motivating the party faithful who work outside of the campaign season and, in the case of the 

Democrats, giving their office holders some guaranteed influence.  Closed primaries make sense if political parties still make sense.  Should dedicated party workers have to battle for a candidate selected by visiting voters who have no link with the party?

Trump.  It looks like he may be trying to appear more “presidential” (whatever that means) now that he is closer to winning the GOP nomination.  Will a more serious Trump continue to have his strong appeal for those who originally boosted him?  Maybe he now has “the big mo”, momentum toward the nomination.  Of course, his problem, though only in the general election, would be in trying to run away from some of the things he said earlier in the campaign.

Cruz. He has no realistic chance of getting enough delegates, so he wants to make sure Trump doesn’t.  As the saying goes, “he’s drinking his own bath water”.  That’s because he believes Trump’s delegates will desert him after the first ballot and swing to Cruz.  Who knows?  Maybe if Trump is really close to what’s needed, delegates would feel it a mistake to deny him the nomination, meaning that Cruz delegates would defect.  And Cruz might not be an appealing general election candidate.  Remember, he’s more conservative than Trump and he’s nasty and means it.

Kasich.  The New York Times thinks he should stay in the race though he trails Rubio who dropped out.  It says: “Mr. Kasich is not an exciting candidate, or even a political moderate.  But he is the most sane-sounding individual in the Republican field, and has been from the start.  Unlike his rivals, he’s shown a willingness to play by the rules.”  Thrilling endorsement.  The GOP nominee should pass a sanity test.  Kasich’s faint hope is that a deadlocked convention will turn to him.

Clinton.  She is the Democratic nominee.  With that in mind, she should calm down and look more “presidential”.  She lets Sanders make her so angry you could wonder how she would deal with America’s adversaries or even Republicans.  Too much emphasis is placed by the media on her unfavorable ratings.  The question will be if voters prefer her to the other candidates.  In fact, that is the way it has always been.  And she should more explicitly show concern about Sanders’ issues.

Sanders.  He has raised serious questions but the answers really do require the revolution he wants.  No revolution this year, though the Democrats have a real shot at the Senate.  The Times thinks he should stay in the race like Kasich, in this case to keep Clinton pulled toward his positions and to keep his supporters from wandering away.  OK, so long as he does not let his desperation become a way to damage Clinton.

A personal comment on Sanders.  In his Vatican talk, when he talked about his country, he was only critical of it.  A U.S. senator in an international forum ought to have something positive to say about a country in which “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders can become a serious candidate for president.

Conventions and polls.  The media likes to say who would beat whom if the election were held today or what will happen at the GOP convention.  The media is wrong, though it is impossible to know what’s right.  People react as the process moves along and their perceptions change.  Maybe Trump will win the nomination on the first ballot and turn out to be a strong challenger to Clinton.  Maybe Clinton has it locked up and this is all a waste of time.  More people will make up their minds after October 1 than may provide the margin of victory.