Partisanship won’t go away easily or soon

Many people, including me, complain about political partisanship these days. If only the politicians in Washington would put the national interest ahead of partisan wrangling, our government would produce positive results, we say.

In other words, it’s all the fault of the politicians.

Many years ago, Pogo Possum, a famous cartoon character, said, “I have seen the enemy, and he is us.”

The problem is not simply irresponsible politicians; it is mainly the people: Us. If you look at Congress state by state, it becomes evident how well it reflects the electorate. Using a rating system that combines the findings of conservative and liberal organizations, I found that during the last two years, the Senate had 14 conservative state delegations. All had two Republican senators.

On the other side, 18 states came out liberal, all having two Democratic senators.

All but one of the remaining 18 states, with apparently moderate delegations, were balanced with a senator from each party. Maine had moderate representation, with both senators being members of the same party – the GOP. That unique standing has disappeared with the election of independent Angus King.

Maine aside, the moderate label was an illusion, because it was usually an average of one conservative and one liberal. The same is pretty much true of House delegations, though the result was somewhat less clear because the varying mix of parties among states. Maine’s House delegation, composed of two Democrats, came out on the liberal side.

These divisions seem likely to remain for quite a while. Most members of either house of Congress are elected by comfortable margins. Relatively few Senate or House seats are decided in truly close elections.

There are at least two causes for the political purity of most states and congressional districts. In laying out House districts every 10 years, state legislatures manufacture safe seats for the party in control. But that also means that the opposition is packed into as few districts as possible, which makes their seats safe as well.

And people tend to dwell in the same areas as others holding similar political views. The coastal states are mainly Democratic, while the Republicans are concentrated inland.

Not only is that true in Congress, but in last year’s presidential election, the same picture emerges. President Obama carried 26 states plus D.C., and only nine were inland. Mitt Romney carried 24 states, but only seven were on the coast.

The center of the country, less populated than along the coasts, is GOP territory, but the country is increasingly framed by Democratic states.

Safe seats and political geography yield the conclusion that the division in Congress reflects the division in the country as a whole.

That would make ending partisanship seem unlikely. The people we elect will pursue the policies of the people who elect them. They have no incentive to take risky positions to promote compromise, when that would not win them many votes.

Though many voters claim to want compromise, they may mean that all of the concessions have to come from the other side. That’s probably because of living in liberal or conservative areas, where they rarely get to hear much of the opposing view.

More than calls for compromise is needed. Something would have to change in the country and affect the way people vote before the deep political divisions lessen.

Political unity has historically followed a national catastrophe like the Civil War, the Great Depression, or the second World War. In other words, if the economy or some other factor affecting the entire country gets bad enough, either a broad consensus emerges or a single party gains control.

Such a fraught path toward consensus is not to be desired. But it is possible if the federal debt grows too large or the economy heads back into deep recession or the United States finds itself at war.

A less disruptive alternative may be happening. Two factors may be moving the country toward Democratic majority control.

Demographic change – women becoming an even stronger majority of the electorate and the growth of Hispanic voting – appears likely to turn some states from Republican to Democratic.

And the GOP itself may push the Northeast further toward the Democrats by its obvious indifference to the region.

For example, ignoring urgent appeals from members of their own party, House Republicans have delayed aid to areas affected by Hurricane Sandy. And of the 21 GOP committee chairs in the new House, only one comes from the Northeast, but Texas and Michigan have four each.

For the time being, the deep partisan divide persists, and there’s little chance of constructive compromise before the 2014 elections.