Whatever the polls say, Donald Trump could be
re-elected.
Both he and the Democrats have focused great attention on
the Mueller report. By finding that the
Trump campaign did not collude with Russian meddlers, it may end up absolving Trump
of many other charges or complaints.
Some voters are sure to see it that way.
His chances for victory may rate better than his personal
popularity, because he appeals to millions of Americans who worry about their
meager savings and dislike changes taking place in the country. Despite low unemployment, these people have
not shared in the nation's prosperity.
Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has reached
sobering conclusions, finding "the U.S. has the highest level of economic
inequality among developed countries. It
has the world's greatest per capita health expenditures yet the lowest life
expectancy among comparable countries."
Even worse, the gap between average people and the most
wealthy is huge. Stiglitz notes that
three Americans have as much wealth as the bottom 50 percent. To be clear, that's three people, not three
percent. And the percentage of children
earning more than their parents, a sign of economic progress, is tumbling.
American productivity is climbing. But the benefits do not show up in the wages
of production and nonsupervisory workers. Investors and owners are picking up the gains.
Under the Republican tax cut, the breaks have mostly gone to
the wealthy. Middle-income taxpayers saw
their withholding tax lowered before the 2018 elections, but their expected tax
refunds shrink after those elections.
Still, some voters do not hold Trump responsible. They believe their taxes can be reduced by
cutting government spending. Reduced
regulation, which Trump is providing, costs less. A tough trade policy slows imports, creating
more jobs at home, though it may also cut exports.
The dominant political mantra remains "jobs, jobs,
jobs." It seems to matter little if
the price of today's low unemployment is less environmental protection and
lower quality health care.
Trump promises recovery of the declining manufacturing
economy. He appeals to people who regret
the growing influence of women and minorities.
He wants to build trade and immigration walls to protect the
country. "America First" means
an increasingly isolated country, seeking to regain its past.
Even though demographic change is inevitable, some see it as
having been sped up by allowing an "invasion" of immigrants, legal
and illegal. Trump's Wall is a powerful
symbol of resistance to change. The key
word in "Make America Great Again" has been "Again." Some people like what that implies.
Whether Trump utters untruths almost daily or focuses
excessively on himself or treats others with disrespect matters far less to
some voters than his policies of lower taxes, fewer imports, reduced immigration
and less regulation. His policies may be
enough to get him re-elected, even by voters who don't like him.
Many Democrats believe that his faults, now widely
recognized, will be enough to bring his defeat.
His popularity remains relatively low.
In short, they think Trump will defeat himself. That's why there are so many candidates. Win the primaries, they think, and you win
the presidency.
Their view gets some support from the 2018 congressional
elections. Republicans lost control of
the House and gained less than expected in the Senate, because of voters'
negative view of Trump. Will the Mueller
report change opinions about him?
Some Democratic candidates believe voters are ready for a
sharp, almost revolutionary, reversal. They
argue for an increased role for government to deal with climate change, public health
care and education. The necessary funds
would come from an increase in taxes on the most wealthy.
These Democrats see the reaction to Trump giving them the
opportunity to focus on increased government action, not leaving the country
entirely to the private sector and competition.
They may remind voters of the sad story of leaving regulation of the
crash-prone 737 Max 8 to Boeing, its manufacturer.
The Democrats divide between moderates and self-styled
democratic socialists. They split
between middle-of-the-road policies and an extreme shift away from Trump. Will the Democrats remain divided,
benefiting Trump, or will the primaries yield a unifying view of how much
change their voters want?
Meanwhile, Trump and his loyal Republicans seem ready to
stick with catering to public longing for the disappearing past. The worries of middle class families could
work to Trump's political advantage.
The 2020 election is as likely to be about the temper of the
American people as about Trump's character.
It will really be about us and what we want.
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