Saturday, December 5, 2020

Divided government has failed; Georgia run-offs could save it or kill it

 

Gordon L. Weil

Divided government – each party controlling part of the government – seems appealing.  It could produce compromise and block extreme policies.

But divided government is a failed myth.  Its virtues are elusive, and it often produces stalemate. Look at the federal government and Maine.

In October, President Trump passed a full year, one quarter of his term in office, refusing to talk with Democrat Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House. For a man who strives to set records, this gap in basic contact may be one.

In Maine, former GOP Gov. Paul LePage vetoed more bills than all his predecessors together over 100 years.  He threatened to veto all bills from the Democratic Legislature unless it abolished the state income tax. It didn’t, and he didn’t.

Checks and balances are basic to American government. The legislative, executive and judicial branches of government are supposed to keep a check on one another, maintaining a balance of power.

In theory, if government power is divided by the parties between the executive and the legislative branches or even within the legislature, that should produce balanced policies.  That could encourage voters to split their votes.  That’s what they did this year.

If voters saw the election as a referendum on President Trump, then obviously the decision went against him and to the alternative, Joe Biden.  Some Biden voters might ordinarily have supported a Republican incumbent, but opposed Trump.

After voting for Biden, many voters picked Republicans down the ticket.  Unusual in a presidential election year, the winner’s party lost some House seats and made only slight gains in the Senate even with more GOP senators up for reelection.  There was obvious ticket splitting. 

The immediate future of divided government is a prime focus of Georgia’s January run-off elections for two U.S. Senate seats.  If the GOP holds onto even one of them, divided control will continue in Washington.  Divided for sure; shared not likely. If the Democrats win both, they will control.

The proof that the current version of divided government does not work is shown by the failure so far to adopt a Covid-19 economic support bill.  Earlier relief bills served well, but more was needed to help people, small business and states weather the ongoing economic cutbacks and closures.

With an eye on the election, the parties could not agree.  The Democrats wanted major new aid and passed a big-spending bill in the House.  Senate Republicans resisted adding to the national debt, and would not agree to even a respectable fraction of what the Democrats had proposed. 

Having adopted strict party discipline, as if Congress were the British Parliament, the Republicans united to oppose a reduced, but still generous, Democratic compromise, even though some suggested they could break ranks.

The Democrats could hope the GOP would suffer for its opposition to more government aid.  The Republicans, even defying Trump, refused major new spending.  Neither sought whatever political credit might come from compromising.

This week, a bipartisan group finally came up with a GOP-sized compromise. Pushed by human needs resulting from the Covid-19 resurgence, it proposed a temporary patch.  Passage is not certain.

Add to party discipline the rise of extremism.   Legislators may worry they will lose their seats in party primaries if they compromise on extreme conservative positions.  Compromise could be good for the country, but perhaps not for their own political survival.

Democratic President Obama appointed some Republicans as federal judges. Trump and GOP Senate Leader McConnell appoint only true GOP conservatives. No compromise. So much for the promise of shared control.

Nowhere is divided government’s demise more obvious than at the state level. Only 11 states have divided governments, usually a governor of one party with a legislature of the other.  There are now 24 Republican “trifectas” (governor, house, senate) and 15 Democratic trifectas, including Maine.

In the 2020 elections, the Republicans increased their state control.  Their one-party control means they will influence U.S. House redistricting in more cases than the Democrats.  Redistricting takes place only once every ten years.

Biden-Trump brought out many voters, but with the exception of the presidential race, the effect of the election was to underline GOP support.  In Maine, with a popular Democratic governor, Republicans gained House seats.

In some states with GOP governors and Democratic legislatures, divided government has a chance of working.  In others, with Democratic governors and GOP legislatures, the Republicans have tried to legislate away the power of the governor.

In the federal government, if the GOP controls the U.S. Senate, divided government shows little sign of working.  Sen. Collins and others would have to break with McConnell to change that situation. 

Divided government has failed. The Georgia Senate races matter, because they will either keep it alive or end it.

 

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