Gordon L. Weil
The political guesswork is that the presidential and congressional elections this year will be settled by narrow margins.
Speculation focuses on several swing groups that could play key roles in the races.
Will the abortion issue bring a large turnout of women to support the Democrats?
Will President Biden’s lingering support for Israel in the Gaza War turn off liberal Democrats who will stay home?
Are Black and Hispanic voters drifting toward the GOP, while union members are returning to the Democrats?
Would a Trump criminal conviction lead some of his core backers to stay home or energize them?
One possible swing group may have been overlooked. If loyal Republicans who had previously backed Donald Trump and his handpicked candidates choose to sit out the elections, they could have a major impact on the GOP’s chances.
Traditional Republicans must be added to the list of swing voters. Having taken over the GOP, Trump labels many lifelong party voters as RINOs – Republicans in Name Only. Many obviously resent being pushed aside by a person they may regard as a RINO,
Although she has not backed Trump in the past, Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins reflects the new wave of frustration of traditional, establishment party members when she says, “I don’t think it should surprise anyone that I will not support him.” She remains a loyal Republican.
Several other GOP leaders have said they will not support Trump or refuse to say what they might do. Would former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, former candidate Nikki Haley, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney and Collins accept a Republican defeat to revive the Grand Old Party?
It’s difficult to gauge the strength of most swing groups, but the potential power of non-Trump Republicans can be more easily estimated. Voting in key state races in 2022 and 2024 plus this year’s GOP primaries provide some helpful numbers.
In 2020, Biden won close victories in five swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four years earlier, Trump had carried all of them, also by narrow margins. Biden relied on those states to defeat Trump, though he faced his opponent’s unproven claims of election fraud.
In each of these states, both candidates improved on their party’s past presidential performance. If there are GOP defections from Trump this time for reasons ranging from the Capitol insurrection to his criminal cases, Biden might more easily hold onto all or most of these states. But he might face Democratic defectors in Georgia.
It would take three of these states moving from Biden to Trump for the former president to gain essential support. In 2022, four of them elected or reelected Democratic governors. If Trump really faces more defections by traditional Republicans, any losses in these states could prove costly to him.
Three of these swing states held GOP primaries before former South Carolina Gov. Haley withdrew. In Arizona, she received 110,000 votes. In Georgia, she gained 77,000 and in Michigan she tallied 296,000 votes. If some of these people had voted for Trump in 2020 but won’t back him now, their lack of support could boost Biden’s grip on those states.
At least one additional state could become much closer to helping Biden, if Trump-designated RINOs defect from him.
In North Carolina, Trump defeated Biden in 2020 by 74,000 votes. In this year’s GOP primary for governor, the Trump-favored candidate defeated two anti-Trump Republicans who together received 191,000 votes. A loss of some of these voters could give North Carolina, with as many electoral votes as Georgia, to Biden.
More improbable but still worth attention is Florida. Trump defeated Biden by 372,000 votes in 2020. In this year’s GOP presidential primary, Haley received 155,000 votes. If these were usual Republican voters who would not now stick with Trump, their absence could greatly narrow his lead. Florida was formerly a swing state and could head back in that direction.
Two other electoral votes could be affected by Trump defectors. Maine and Nebraska each choose some presidential electors by congressional district. In 2020, Biden won Nebraska’s second district and could hold onto it. Maine’s second district could flip from Trump to Biden if the former president dropped about 8,000 votes.
The presidential campaign will undoubtedly change in the coming months. Polling predictions likely will vary over time and could turn out to be flat wrong if people are lying to pollsters. Future events may yet influence voters or even turn them against voting at all.
Throughout the process, it will be worth paying attention to swing groups. Not only can a relatively small number of voters determine a close outcome, but collectively they could also produce a wide victory.
Among these swing groups, follow the RINOs. They may not be extinct.
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