Harris, Trump promises depend on Congress

 

Gordon L. Weil

Promises, promises.

Presidential candidates make them.  Voters complain that they don’t keep them.

Promises reveal a candidate’s political views, but often they cannot be kept.  Keeping them most likely depends on the president’s party winning majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate. 

This year, the presidential election takes place alongside races for all 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats.  The results of those 438 other federal elections may reveal as much about national policy in the next couple of years as the outcome of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Right now, the balance of power in both houses of Congress is close and is expected to remain tight.  Currently, the House has 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats with three vacancies.   In November’s election, 21 seats are rated as toss-ups, so House control is up for grabs.

A toss-up seat is usually one where the representative aligns with one party, while the voters support a presidential candidate of the other party.  Maine’s Second District, represented by Jared Golden, is one of the most Republican districts with a Democratic representative.

Golden is a classic case, like Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a Democrat who keeps the views of his district always ahead of pure partisanship.  Goldin has made clear why he is a Democrat, but keeps his distance from the Democratic Party, sometimes opposing it on issues supported by most of its House members.

While he has voted against the policies of President Biden more than any other House Democrat, he has not cast the decisive vote to kill a Biden policy. That’s partly because there are other Democrats who share his approach.  In 2021, he refused to back Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker and joined others voting for another Democrat.  Still, Pelosi was elected.

The presidential race could have a major influence on his re-election chances.  Trump expects to carry the district.  Either Golden must continue to convince voters that his loyalty to them is greater than his Democratic ties or Harris must succeed in reducing Trump’s strength in the district.

By not endorsing Harris, Golden has immunized himself from having to support or defend her positions as she announces them, keeping his focus on district interests. Still, as a Democrat, he is sure to get seats on House committees, less possible for a true independent.  His committee roles can be important for Maine.

Golden’s race could be critically important to the Democrats, because they have a realistic hope of winning control of the House.  Their chances in the Senate are far slimmer, so the House could be the barrier to the possibility of full Trump government control.

The Senate now includes 51 Democrats and allies and 49 Republicans. The Democrats have 22 seats up for election this year while the GOP has only 11.   Only two of these seats, both held by Democrats, are considered to be toss-ups.  If they hold those seats, the full Senate would end up split 50-50.  The Vice President breaks ties, so the presidential election outcome matters.

But tie-breaking might not be enough, because the minority party could deny the 60 votes required to end debate and could block most decisions.  The only limit is that the American people have no appetite for a government shutdown resulting from total disagreement, so a band-aid budget could be allowed to pass.

Presidents have gained more power in recent years, but they are not completely free to act.  The courts may restrain them, and the congressional power of the purse may limit how far they can go.  Without congressionally approved spending, they can be at least partially blocked.

After the Democratic National Convention, the campaigns enter into the home stretch of this unusually short race.  The September 10 presidential debate could be a turning point.  Trump might step up his efforts to undermine public confidence in Harris.  As the younger candidate with special appeal to women voters, she could try to push her momentum.

If Trump regained the polling lead, he could have a strong influence either way on the congressional races.  Voters might support Democratic candidates to ensure a balanced or divided government or they might vote Republican to give Trump the full support he needs to keep his promises.

In contrast, a growing Harris lead would mean she had strong momentum.  That could yield her a bigger win, possibly providing a margin that would make it more difficult for the almost inevitable election challenges that would follow a Trump loss.   

If her gains continue, her momentum could help Democrats in toss-up congressional races.  Beyond that, watch to see if any race where the GOP candidate is currently rated as a sure winner becomes a toss-up, which could be a bellwether of a possible Harris victory.