Close election? Don't count on it

Gordon L. Weil

“It don’t mean a thing, if you ain’t got that swing.”  That’s the name of an old popular song.

It could be the theme song of this year’s presidential election.  And it may be the key to a big win for Kamela Harris, not the expected close election.  Instead of barely scraping by, as the pundits and polls now forecast, she could win by a convincingly large margin.

We are constantly reminded that in a few states, a few votes could determine the result.  Because the outcome could go either way, that makes them swing states, while the results in all others are considered to be locked in. 

But the election across the country may depend on the changing preferences of key groups of voters.  Swing voters could have an effect in many states beyond the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Who are these groups?  Voters over 65, disaffected Republicans, Latinos, Asians and rural residents.  And the biggest group – women.

Beyond these groups are those whose leanings are known, and the question is if they will turn out to vote and have unimpeded access to the ballot box.   They are Blacks and young people.

As I’ve repeatedly noted, the so-called suburban women with a post-high school education have become a major voting force.  They outnumber the blue-collar men having no education beyond high school.

Not only do they outnumber the supposed Trump core, but they vote at a higher rate. They are reported to be better motivated in this election because of the abortion issue.  And they are becoming a separately identified and independent minded political force.

Older voters have traditionally been Republican supporters, but they have become almost evenly divided between the two presidential candidates.  They show up to vote at a higher rate than any other age group, so this shift could move active voters from one camp to another.  The same trend may be true for rural voters.

Clearly, Trump forces have taken control of the GOP from traditional economic conservatives.  While many Republicans will remain faithful to the ticket, others are now in play. Will they hold their noses and vote for Harris or will they stay home? 

Their leader is likely to be Liz Cheney, the former Wyoming GOP member of Congress. While she was soundly defeated in the party primary by a Trump backer, she retained a share of her state’s Republican voters.  Now that she has spoken out against Trump, millions of disaffected Republicans across the country might follow her lead.

Latino and Asian voters are not expected to depart from their usual voting patterns.  Much support will remain with Trump.  But to the extent that their support is loosened, possibly because they are uncomfortable with his style, they weaken his chances.  Given that he has likely hit his maximum level of support, he cannot afford such defections.

Black voters had been reported as lacking enthusiasm for President Biden leading to a reduced turnout and some even turning to Trump.  Their loss was a major problem for Biden.  But Harris, firmly recognized as a Black, despite Trump having tried to create doubt, can bring them back.

The constitutional amendment allowing voting at age 18 has been a disappointment as many young people have remained aloof from politics. But issues ranging from abortion to Gaza appear to be creating a wave of new registrations among the youth.  The Democrats think they stand to gain from first-time voters.

These swing voters may not only be a factor in the seven swing states, but are likely to appear to some extent in almost all states.  That may mean that states rated as solidly in the Republican camp could move closer to being in play.

Florida, once a toss-up state, has been thought to be a win for Trump.  Texas, seeming to be firmly under Republican domination, has been seen as a sure thing for him.  Neither now appears likely to disappoint him.  But the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to the point where both, with a total of 70 electoral votes, have lost their certainty for Trump.

The campaign is far from over.  Trump could win half of the swing states. He could try to slug it out in Pennsylvania, a state critically important for Harris.  And, of course, there could be major, unforeseen events that can radically change the election outlook.

But if the swing voters turn out to make a difference across the country with their shift not limited to the swing states, Harris could gain a major victory.  Her momentum matters.

Not only would such a win give her a clear mandate, but it would undermine any disruptive Trump “Stop the Steal” effort and promote an orderly transition.

Close election?  Don’t count on it. 

This group could decide the election

 

Gordon L. Weil

A dozen people will meet behind closed doors next month and make a decision that will heavily influence the presidential election and might even decide it.

They are not politicians. They are a group of almost anonymous economists and bankers who will set the interest rate affecting everything from mortgages and housing to credit cards and pensions. 

Its decision will have an immediate and nationwide impact. That’s more real change than most economic policy actions by the president.  And it could also determine the election.

The group bears a technical sounding name: the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC.  But its effect is hardly technical.  It is coldly practical, and its decision will cascade through the economy the minute it is announced at two o’clock on the afternoon of September 18.  This will come at the end of the only FOMC meeting scheduled before the elections.

The FOMC is poised to lower interest rates.  That’s a big deal and is expected to be politically popular.  Coming while a Democratic president holds office, the lower rates could boost the Democrats’ election chances.  Yet the decision will be a judgment based on economic factors, information available to the public, and not on politics.

The FOMC supports the Federal Reserve, which has two major tasks – keeping employment high and inflation low.  It’s a balancing act, because promoting one goal can produce negative results for the other.

Many people have faced a higher cost of living and assign blame to high interest rates.  Whatever the underlying factors, a majority holds President Biden responsible, with inflation being a key contributor to his unpopularity.  Lower rates and resulting lower prices could boost the chances of Kamala Harris.

Donald Trump has been an advocate of lower interest rates, a position that has political appeal.  He has come to dislike the rate policy of Jerome Powell, the person he had appointed as the Fed chief.  Recently, Trump has favored waiting to lower rates to deny political help to the Democrats. 

Trump backers have suggested that presidents ought to take part in setting interest rates.  If the president played such a role, it would be like their having a say in Supreme Court decisions.  Now, the president’s role with both the Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve Board consists of appointing their members. 

Presidents are supposed to keep away from these economic decisions.  Otherwise, short-term politics can seriously harm the national economy.  Leading central banks around the world, like the Fed, are kept independent of political leaders by law. 

The Federal Reserve has traditionally kept its distance from presidential politics, especially following a major crisis about 50 years ago when Fed policy got too close to a campaign. Since then, they have been a carefully reserved Reserve.

The FOMC is composed of twelve members:  the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Fed, appointed by the president for 14-year terms, plus five representatives of regional Federal Reserve banks.  The FOMC votes are made public, and, unlike the Supreme Court, there is remarkable agreement among the members, no matter their political affiliation.

Following the Great Recession of 2008 and the Covid crisis beginning in 2020, employment fell, eventually leading the FOMC to stimulate the economy by setting interest rates at zero.  Then, as the economy improved, it raised rates to block inflation by slowing business investment. 

Its policy worked.  First, unemployment was sharply cut.  Then, the FOMC raised rates back to traditional levels.  Price increases have slowed, but so has employment growth.  

Here’s where politics comes in.  People had grown accustomed to the low interest rates used to stimulate the economy.   When the FOMC increased rates, it intended to slow economic growth and reverse inflation.  But many people liked low rates, so grew unhappy with the FOMC interest policy.

The Fed has tried to bring about what is called a “soft landing.”  In dealing with both employment and inflation problems, it had to avoid pushing too hard either way, because it wanted to avoid a recession.  That’s a tough challenge, not always popular, and it seems to be working.  But the Fed has struggled to get the right timing for its moves.

If, by its decision in September, the FOMC lowers costs in the economy, almost everybody will take that as good news.  Their new optimism, probably accompanied by higher stock market values, could have a political effect.  With Trump now holding a slight lead on his ability to handle the economy, it could help Harris.

The cut won’t be huge, either a quarter or a half percent, but it will produce lower costs for people and businesses.  In this short campaign, that could be a big influence on how people vote.  Let’s see how the hot politics of a cold economic decision play out.

Election puts image over issues

Gordon L. Weil

Political campaigns look for motivational catch phrases. 

One of the most famous was posted in Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign headquarters.  It simply read: “The economy, stupid.”  Workers were to focus on this single issue as a key to winning.

This year, the key may just be emerging to voters distracted by daily polls.  It could be: “It’s about image.”

Pollsters ask voters about the issues most important to them.  Or they may ask about whether a voter views a candidate favorably or unfavorably.  If you have ever voted for a candidate you disagreed with on a major issue or just plain disliked, you might doubt the value of such opinion surveys.

Polls don’t ask if the personality and character of a candidate influences a voter more than their position on major issues.  This year, it’s possible that the image reflecting each candidate’s character may matter more than their positions on issues.

Of course, this effect focuses mostly on swing voters.  The great majority of voters decide based on party affiliation or their personal loyalty to a specific candidate.   Relatively few such people are moved by campaigns. Some issues, like immigration or abortion, may promote voting swings, but how much is not clear.

The contest between former President Trump and Vice President Harris appears to turn largely on who they are more than on any single issue.

Donald Trump provides simple answers to difficult questions. His intentionally inflammatory statements appeal to some people unhappy with the government, especially when they believe others benefit at their expense.  He is negative about the country, and his recourse to America’s “great” past may signal an attempt to slow the changing national ethnic mix.

Yet, Trump’s simple answers may turn out to be simplistic, turning off some voters.  He does not hesitate to lie about objectively verifiable facts.  Recently, he has boldly asserted that there were no crowds at Harris rallies, when thousands could directly testify to having been there. 

He makes claims about his past successes and unfounded charges against the Democrats, but the risk is that the media’s fact-checking can sound like sour grapes.  He is harshly negative about the state of the nation.  His self-confidence may stifle reporters, who struggle to avoid showing any bias against him.

He is more attached to power than the substance of policies, many adopted from hard-right advocates.  He has successfully attached himself to extreme Republican conservatism, which he found ready for strong leadership.

Trump has always been ambitious.  His political career seems more driven by self-gratification than public service.  As with some other past political leaders, the old mantra may apply: “Deep down, he’s shallow.” 

Perhaps above all else, the undeniable fact is that he is now by far the oldest candidate, which could bring him under closer scrutiny.  He now seeks debates, both because he may see himself as the underdog and to demonstrate that age has not taken the same toll on him as it has on Biden.

Trump is well-known, but Kamala Harris has to become known in a short period of time.  Her undeniable facts are that she is middle-aged, far younger than Trump, and a woman.  The challenge for her is to demonstrate that matters politically.

She is trying to show herself as highly active and able to maintain a level of campaigning that is beyond Trump’s ability.  She implicitly makes age an issue and makes frequent campaign stops so that voters and the media can form fresh opinions about her.  She is upbeat.

The test of her political skill comes in having to remain loyal to Biden, who gave her the path to the presidency, while showing she has a mind of her own and can open some space with the administration in which she still serves.  Israel-Palestine may be a bigger challenge to showing if she can lead than immigration or the economy.

Pundits have focused on the Democrats ceding blue collar voters to the GOP, implying that these losses cannot be fully made up by their gains among educated women voters. Harris obviously ties her image to support for abortion choice, an issue resonating with women voters, and the numbers may be in her favor.

The number of women over age 25 with post-high school educational attainment far exceeds the number of men whose schooling ended at high school or earlier.   Here Harris’ persona could matter.

As for running mates, they likely can hurt a ticket more than help it.  JD Vance, like Trump who chose him, runs based on his celebrity.  He is intensely loyal.  Harris’ Tim Walz, a Minnesotan, comes across as a Midwesterner in the tradition of his state’s long-ago Veep, Hubert Humphrey, called “the happy warrior.”

Voters may decide based on candidates’ images, more than on the issues.  Maybe they always have.