Gordon L. Weil
Political campaigns look for motivational catch
phrases.
One of the most famous was posted in Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign
headquarters. It simply read: “The
economy, stupid.” Workers were to focus
on this single issue as a key to winning.
This year, the key may just be emerging to voters distracted
by daily polls. It could be: “It’s about
image.”
Pollsters ask voters about the issues most important to them. Or they may ask about whether a voter views a
candidate favorably or unfavorably. If
you have ever voted for a candidate you disagreed with on a major issue or just
plain disliked, you might doubt the value of such opinion surveys.
Polls don’t ask if the personality and character of a
candidate influences a voter more than their position on major issues. This year, it’s possible that the image reflecting
each candidate’s character may matter more than their positions on issues.
Of course, this effect focuses mostly on swing voters. The great majority of voters decide based on
party affiliation or their personal loyalty to a specific candidate. Relatively few such people are moved by
campaigns. Some issues, like immigration or abortion, may promote voting
swings, but how much is not clear.
The contest between former President Trump and Vice
President Harris appears to turn largely on who they are more than on any
single issue.
Donald Trump provides simple answers to difficult questions.
His intentionally inflammatory statements appeal to some people unhappy with
the government, especially when they believe others benefit at their expense. He is negative about the country, and his
recourse to America’s “great” past may signal an attempt to slow the changing
national ethnic mix.
Yet, Trump’s simple answers may turn out to be simplistic,
turning off some voters. He does not
hesitate to lie about objectively verifiable facts. Recently, he has boldly asserted that there
were no crowds at Harris rallies, when thousands could directly testify to
having been there.
He makes claims about his past successes and unfounded
charges against the Democrats, but the risk is that the media’s fact-checking can
sound like sour grapes. He is harshly
negative about the state of the nation. His
self-confidence may stifle reporters, who struggle to avoid showing any bias
against him.
He is more attached to power than the substance of policies,
many adopted from hard-right advocates. He
has successfully attached himself to extreme Republican conservatism, which he
found ready for strong leadership.
Trump has always been ambitious. His political career seems more driven by
self-gratification than public service. As
with some other past political leaders, the old mantra may apply: “Deep down,
he’s shallow.”
Perhaps above all else, the undeniable fact is that he is
now by far the oldest candidate, which could bring him under closer scrutiny. He now seeks debates, both because he may see
himself as the underdog and to demonstrate that age has not taken the same toll
on him as it has on Biden.
Trump is well-known, but Kamala Harris has to become known
in a short period of time. Her
undeniable facts are that she is middle-aged, far younger than Trump, and a
woman. The challenge for her is to demonstrate
that matters politically.
She is trying to show herself as highly active and able to
maintain a level of campaigning that is beyond Trump’s ability. She implicitly makes age an issue and makes frequent
campaign stops so that voters and the media can form fresh opinions about her. She is upbeat.
The test of her political skill comes in having to remain
loyal to Biden, who gave her the path to the presidency, while showing she has
a mind of her own and can open some space with the administration in which she
still serves. Israel-Palestine may be a
bigger challenge to showing if she can lead than immigration or the economy.
Pundits have focused on the Democrats ceding blue collar
voters to the GOP, implying that these losses cannot be fully made up by their gains
among educated women voters. Harris obviously ties her image to support for
abortion choice, an issue resonating with women voters, and the numbers may be
in her favor.
The number of women over age 25 with post-high school
educational attainment far exceeds the number of men whose schooling ended at
high school or earlier. Here Harris’ persona
could matter.
As for running mates, they likely can hurt a ticket more
than help it. JD Vance, like Trump who
chose him, runs based on his celebrity.
He is intensely loyal. Harris’
Tim Walz, a Minnesotan, comes across as a Midwesterner in the tradition of his
state’s long-ago Veep, Hubert Humphrey, called “the happy warrior.”
Voters may decide based on candidates’ images, more than on the
issues. Maybe they always have.
