Maine primaries show Democrats could win big
But RCV unduly complicated
Gordon L. Weil
Maine’s unusual primary elections produced expected results,
but raised new puzzles.
In the Democratic primary for governor, former House Speaker
Hannah Pingree, who had finished second initially, defeated Nirav Shah, the
former Maine CDC director. Her win came thanks
to an unusual ranked-choice-voting ticket.
Pingree and two other candidates asked voters to rank them, skipping
Shah and Angus King III.
Pingree, former Senate President Troy Jackson and Secretary
of State Shenna Bellows, were experienced state leaders and sought to ensure
that newcomers Shah and King should not represent the party. Pingree received more second choice support
from others on the ticket to pass Shah. Voters
agreed with the unified ticket strategy.
Proponents of RCV probably had not thought of electoral tickets
to the extent this one worked. Clearly,
each of the three wanted a like-minded candidate with a good state record to
the point of being willing to risk their own chances.
In the Republican primary, Bobby Charles, the first-round frontrunner,
won the election. A loyal Trumper, he
faced competitors whose general election backing seems to be in doubt. He might
have lost to more unified opposition. He
may now try to move more toward the center. If his opponents remain cool to him,
he’s in trouble, because Pingree does not face defections.
Charles’ win opens the door to Rick Bennett, the moderate Republican
running as an independent, who could pick up the GOP defectors. But he will need independents and Democrats,
so he must take votes from Pingree. She
favors ending Maine’s selection of presidential electors by congressional district,
so he could differ from her on that issue.
In the Second District Democratic House primary, State Auditor
Matt Dunlap defeated Joe Baldacci, the former Bangor city council member who
had been endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Though Dunlap is seen as more progressive, he
is known as a gun rights advocate.
National Democratic endorsements of Baldacci and Gov. Janet
Mills in her failed run for the Senate nomination suggest that the national
party ought to stay out of Democratic primary races. Leaders might suppose they can pick general
election winners better than the locals, as Trump does among Republicans, but
they can’t, and their meddling can hurt fundraising.
Both the Senate and the Second District races are critically
important to the Democratic effort to take congressional control, allowing them
to bring Trump somewhat under legislative control. But that significance does
not make Washington wiser about Maine politics than the local folks. It’s not over, but more Maine campaign mistakes
will likely be made by outsiders.
The Maine primaries sent a message about the November
elections that may be reflected nationally.
While the pundits focus on the redistricting battles meant to reduce
Democratic seats, especially those held by Blacks, and on swing districts where
seats could flip, they miss the possibility of something bigger.
Twice as many Democrats as Republicans voted in the Maine
primaries. Even if the Second District
congressional race contributed, the margin was large nonetheless. Democrats are fired up and Republicans seem
dispirited, possibly because of the high consumer prices resulting from the Iran
war and fatigue with Sen. Collins’ support for Trump.
In Texas, the Democratic Senate primary was also impressive. They may have slightly edged the Republicans
in their primary. This showing is unusual
in Texas, a reliably red state.
If these are omens of political enthusiasm, then a Blue Wave
is possible. Traditional district-by-district
analyses could be less useful if the nation has tired of Trump. As with Democrats in 2024, many unhappy Republicans
could stay home. Big campaign spending
might help the GOP, but huge outlays have limited effectiveness past a certain
point.
Trump has succeeded in creating doubts about the honesty of
vote counting, though he lacks evidence.
Democrats have gone overboard attempting to counter such doubts. The Maine primary RCV count was a prime example. It took ten days between voting and the final
count, all because of an overblown effort to achieve perfect accuracy.
Votes are supposed to be counted in the municipality where
they are cast. In RCV, Maine allows only
first-choice winners to be counted locally, leaving later rounds to the state. Ballots
or electronic data must be transported to Augusta.
But local counts of all voting would let winners be tentatively
calculated in a day. The state count
could determine the final numbers, which would not vary significantly from the sum
of local counts. Counting would be
quicker and depend less on the opaque operation of computers, reducing opportunities
for false claims about vote tampering.
Under the Maine Constitution, plurality voting must be used
in races for governor and the Legislature. Using RCV for federal races and primaries creates
confusion.
Maine has created an unduly complicated system. It treats voters as ignorant or lazy.
