Strangle the enemy – it’s better than nuclear
End of freedom of the seas
Gordon L. Weil
Fearing that Iran would develop a nuclear weapon that it could
use to disrupt the Middle East, the U.S. attacked. Then, Iran realized that it already had such
a weapon immediately at hand.
It is not a super-destructive missile, but a narrow passage
of water through which 30 percent of the world’s petroleum is transported and
which Iran can control. The Strait of Hormuz has become
a weapon of war that need not cause widespread death and destruction while delivering
a bomb-sized blow to the world, day after day.
Historically, the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow body of water
between Iran and Oman, has been used as an international waterway. Vessels of all nations could pass
freely. Traffic was mainly related to
petroleum and fertilizer exports. International
law covering such usage is well-developed and detailed.
Iran understood that it could exert economic and political power
by controlling maritime traffic. Action
in the open sea is less constrained than conflict on land. Retaliating for the American-Israel attack in
February, Iran found, even though it is a minor naval power, it could block the
Strait.
The U.S. does not want to damage shore facilities that are
essential for the petroleum trade, so must limit its range of action. Its bellicose threats and attacks on mainland
facilities have not yielded submission by a determined defender. By causing a stoppage in oil deliveries to
China, Japan and other Asian countries, it faced opposition to its Iran gambit.
Even the U.S. is affected.
When the world market price of crude oil rises, American producers raise
their prices in the domestic market. Their
profits are boosted without any increase in their production costs. Consumers pay at the pump.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of at least four international
waterways where a bordering country threatens to gain control in pursuit of its
political objectives. Reducing passage
is turning out to be more powerful than armaments. The prime American goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear
potential has been replaced by efforts to open the strait.
Middle East oil access has two marine gateways. One is Hormuz. The other is Bab-el-Mandeb,
a strait at the southern end of the Red Sea.
Vessels using the Suez Canal, the gateway to Europe and the Americas, must
transit this narrow passage.
Bab-el-Mandeb can be made impassable by the Houthis, Iran’s
southern arm that dominates much of Yemen.
They resist the armed might of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and have
recently picked up on Iran’s strait strategy.
They are less vulnerable that Iran’s proxies in Hamas or Hezbollah and do
not depend on Iran. They fight their own
battles.
The Houthis have begun moving to cut off oil through that
strait, which sees the transit of more than 9 percent of the world’s petroleum
traffic. Closures of Hormuz and
Bab-el-Mandeb raise consumer prices for gas and food throughout the world. The fleeting pleasure of having knocked off
Iran’s Supreme Leader seems unimportant in comparison.
The biggest marine chokepoint could turn out to be the South China Sea. This waterway is not narrow, but forms a
vital link for Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. It is an international thoroughfare and an
estimated one-third of all world trade passes through it.
China claims it as its own territorial waters. Its navy and air force patrol it, and it has
created artificial islands in it. It
accosts foreign vessels and warns away U.S. naval aircraft and vessels. It is the path to its takeover of Taiwan.
Freedom of the seas there depends on the U.S. Navy. Two aircraft carriers, destroyers and air surveillance
tame Chinese ambitions. But the U.S. has
stripped the fleet there to concentrate on attacks on Iran. No carriers are on station.
The American-Israel war on Iran is helping China move toward
domination of a vital international waterway.
It gains influence on Asian nations while displacing the U.S. It increases its threat to Taiwan. For the U.S., these are the unintended consequences
of an unintended war.
The fourth marine closure is the Black Sea. Ukraine and Russia can block
each other’s free access to it. Together, they supply about 30 percent of the
world’s wheat. One expert warns that the
loss of most of this supply would cause “severe global food price shock.” Many
people might be unable to pay for food.
The U.S. could play a key role by pressuring Russia’s Putin
to negotiate and end his invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s lost sales as the world’s largest wheat supplier will weaken
it, though it could also be impacted by more sanctions coupled with greater American
help for Ukraine.
President Trump seeks to enforce America’s will on the world. He is not succeeding, because other countries
can develop and use maritime leverage that is powerful enough to replace nuclear
weapons.
