Trump focuses on Trump, not saving GOP Congress
Could make quick deals
Gordon L. Weil
At the end of the movie “Men in Black,” the scene fades on an
image of the universe the size of a marble.
In fact, the universe is about 93 billion light-years across
and expanding. That would be some marble.
For President Trump, the world is his marble. He sees
himself smart enough and powerful enough to play with his marble as he
wishes.
But what can be done by special effects in a movie is
proving impossible in the world today.
Though many people have noticed, Trump ignores the limits of his power
and the world closing in on him.
Last week, the President of Iran, in New York for the U.N.
General Assembly, made a proposal that included completely and quickly opening the
Strait of Hormuz in seven days. Oil
prices might decline and signal an end to the Iran war, aiding Trump
Republicans in the midterm elections.
It would also help the faltering Iranian economy and ease worldwide inflation.
Trump could have said that the offer is a good start, but not
enough. A quick outcome could allow him
to describe whatever deal as a victory, while yielding Iran an end to war and a
chance to revive its economy. Instead,
Trump quickly rejected the proposal, threatened more attacks and ignored overwhelming
American opposition to the war.
His response revealed, once again, that his book, “The Art
of the Deal,” is fiction. He does not negotiate; he intimidates. He does not bargain until the best possible
deal is reached. Instead, he lays out
his best-case result and expects the other side to concede and give him what he
wants. He is slow to understand when the
other side won’t surrender or even its motivations.
The U.S. will not end up with a deal as good as the one
President Obama made, however incomplete it was. Trump cannot admit an error much less accept
an offer even if it would allow him to paper it over.
Canada is much the same story. Trump let his mapmaking dream of Canada as
the 51st state get in the way of recognizing that it already was a satellite. If he had chosen to focus on negotiations treating
the Canadian economy as a complement to the American, he probably could have satisfied
most of his ambitions minus the Stars and Stripes over Ottawa.
But he has insisted on total submission on trade rather than
a highly advantageous deal. Canada
reacted under a new style of national leadership, which is both independent and
assertive. Eventually, a deal will
emerge, because each side needs the other.
But the result will be less favorable to the U.S. than where Trump
started. His policy is not popular in
the U.S.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump chose to back Russian
aggression, because he believes that force decides international relations, for
Russia as it does for his U.S. In one of
the worst displays of diplomatic arrogance, he berated Ukraine President Zelenskyy
and told him held “no cards,” while Russia’s Putin had them all. He came to understand he was wrong.
But he stopped helping Ukraine, partly because his focus
shifted to Iran and partly because of his unexplained affinity for Putin. His moves stimulated a more independent
Europe, less likely to follow America’s political lead. By dropping Ukraine, he ignores wide American
sentiment that both admires its resistance and retains deep-seated opposition
to Russia.
If Trump took mercy on Republicans struggling to hold onto their
seats in Congress, he could turn the political tide by declaring that he had
adopted a fast-track policy to negotiate agreements aimed at dealing
immediately with these three unpopular conflicts.
For Iran, he could return to the June ceasefire agreement,
which he had abandoned when observers reported that it was also a good deal for
Iran. Isn’t that a successful negotiation
– when each side is satisfied or equally dissatisfied?
For Canada, he could offer cooperation, not outright destruction,
relating to key Canadian industries – auto, steel, aluminum and lumber – in return
for firm preference on energy, potash, uranium and, somewhat oddly, alcoholic beverages. The deal would have to be subject to financial
guarantees.
For Ukraine, he could keep his offer, made earlier this year
and then withdrawn, to allow it to manufacture Patriot missiles under license. That announcement would send a message to
Putin that the U.S. was backing Ukraine for the long haul, underlining the futility
of continuing a war that Russia cannot win.
None of these suggestions has a chance. Trump seems to care little about the fate of
the GOP congressional majority in the midterms or the cost of living. His prime focus is on attempts to build
concrete (literally) gilded memorials to himself in Washington.
All else is just a marble to play with.
