Gordon Weil
November’s congressional elections may follow a predictable
script.
But there could be another scenario, turning an expected squeaker
into a landslide.
According to conventional thinking, the elections are
contests for a few seats that could tip the balance to the Democrats, giving
them a good chance of winning the House and the possibility of a Senate victory.
This thinking inevitably focuses on relatively few elections
in scattered swing states or districts. The
Republicans, heavily committed to backing their leader, focus on holding their
slim but effective congressional majorities.
The Democrats count on declining presidential popularity to hand them
enough seats to gain control.
The elections are clearly about Trump. His impact factors into virtually every primary
and general election. Strategists assume
the status quo will generally survive in most contests with Trump’s political
fate determined in marginal seats.
For Trump, the elections are personal. He worries that a Democratic House majority
will impeach him for a third time. A man
who likes to set “never before in history” records, he doesn’t want this one.
His strategy calls for countering the usual mid-term
election losses of an incumbent president’s party. He believes that erecting obstacles to voting
will reduce the number of likely Democratic voters, especially the poor and
minorities. He also pushes for redistricting
to tilt political demographics his way and prepares to claim fraud, if the GOP loses.
He punishes Democratic states by cutting funding and launching
ICE invasions, creating incentives for them to flip to his side. Though
he has alienated some voting groups, he may write them off as being concentrated
in states where he wouldn’t win in any case.
He plays to the prejudices of voters who could protect his majority.
But there is an alternative scenario. Suppose his falling poll ratings indicate a
widespread national rejection of Trump’s style and substance. The sagging approval ratings for his
presidential performance and almost all his key policies suggest this
possibility. While he could hold his
MAGA core, he might face outright nationwide opposition.
Trump has openly offended women, Blacks, Hispanics and other
groups. His anti-minority beliefs have
brought the exclusion of female and Black military leaders, the erasing of American
history about slavery and racial discrimination, arrests of people because of
the color of their skin, killing Americans and ignoring the Constitution.
Voters, alarmed by his narrow national policies and
bellicose foreign gambits, might now turn out in large enough numbers to
transform a campaign for swing seats into an opposition landslide, burying his
efforts to tamper with the electorate.
The split between progressive and moderate Democrats could
matter less than their common opposition to Trump. Still, an upsurge in support for progressives
could be a sign of motivated opposition to MAGA. And if conservative Republicans can win while
opposing Trump, that could also weaken his control.
While this is far from assured, indicators could forecast
the final outcome. Take Maine’s June 9 Democratic
Senate primary to pick an opponent to GOP Sen. Susan Collins’ sixth term
bid.
Sen. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer anointed Gov. Janes Mills
as most likely to be able to unseat Collins.
Mills is a moderate, but would be the oldest first-year senator in
American history. Normally, she would
have a lock on the nomination.
But progressive Graham Platner, a Sanders-endorsed oyster farmer,
is popular. While his life story raises
questions, polls indicate he is popular and could defeat both Mills in the
primary and Collins in the general. The
latest poll, though of uncertain accuracy, surprisingly shows that about
one-fifth of Maine voters are socialists.
Normally, Mills would seem a good fit for Maine. Platner’s showing could represent the signal
that a strong response to Trump is popular.
Interestingly, the Trump-oriented candidate in the Maine GOP governor’s primary
currently trails, despite massive early spending.
Another marker may be the May 19 GOP House primary in Kentucky’s
4th congressional district. Incumbent
Thomas Massie, a strong conservative, is Trump’s most notable GOP House critic. The president recruited a MAGA loyalist to
oppose Massie.
A Massie win could encourage other House GOP candidates to
put some space between themselves and Trump.
If Massie loses, Trump will have reasserted virtually absolute
domination over the Republicans. Massie
has been highly popular, so this race has significant potential to turn into a Trump
referendum.
Look also at the Texas GOP Senate primary on Tuesday, March
3, where the winner could face a tough general election. In the Democratic race, a progressive faces a moderate. A progressive win could be a sign that Democrats
see Trump as vulnerable nationally not just in swing elections.
Possibly relevant postscript: Last week in a UK special parliamentary election,
the Greens (progressive) won, defeating Reform (MAGA, having pushed traditional
Conservatives aside), with Labour (Democrats) third. This was a Labour district.
