This should be the best of years for the Republican Party.
It holds its largest majority since 1928 in the U.S. House
of Representatives.It controls the
governor’s chair and both houses of the state legislature (there only one in
Nebraska) in 24 states.
If you add up the popular vote for House members across the
country, the GOP reportedly won 40.1 million votes compared to 35.6 million for
the Democrats.
In the U.S. House, its majority of 247-188 gives it control
of the agenda, as does its Senate majority of 54-46, though neither has enough
Republicans to override a presidential veto.
The Democrats are in bad shape.They control the governorship and both houses
of the state legislature in only seven states.They cannot be assured that President Obama’s picks for federal office
would be confirmed.
Why have the Republicans been so successful?Among the answers are their efforts to win
state legislative races.They have
poured far more money into the effort than have the Democrats.
Also, there were far more Senate seats held by Democrats
contested in 2014 than those held by the GOP, though the situation will reverse
in 2016.
Finally, as in most mid-term congressional elections, the
president’s party lost ground. But the
losses were deeper than usual, because of Obama’s low popularity.
Both the races for state legislatures and the U.S. House of
Representatives were heavily affected by redistricting moves made after the
2010 census.A party in power can shape
the legislative districts for the next ten years, and the GOP made sure to gain
as much control as possible in state legislatures carrying out redistricting.
To be sure, in those states where they control or in the 19 divided
states, the Democrats can influence legislative decisions.With their House majority, Maine Democrats
will be in this position, facing a GOP governor and Senate.
Above all, the political balance will provide Republicans
with an excellent chance to demonstrate their capacity to govern.
Many in the GOP had thought the 1980 election of Ronald
Reagan as president would open the way to a lengthy conservative era, but the
Democrats have won the presidency and legislative control in much of the period
since then.
The Republicans have the opportunity in the next two years, by
compiling a strong record and paving the way for the party’s 2016 presidential
candidate, to resume their effort to install conservatism for the long haul.
The key to its success may depend on being able to shift
from opposition to Obama and the Democrats to taking positive steps to
govern.In other words, the GOP will
have to be more than simply being known as “the party of ‘no’.”
Take just three examples.Republicans have persisted in going through the motions of trying to
repeal the Affordable Care Act, though they knew they could not succeed.With a Democratic president, they still could
not override his veto.
But they could come forward with proposals for revising
Obamacare, taking into account its positive elements and the increased coverage
for millions of Americans.It is unrealistic
and probably bad politics to propose revisions that will strip people of
coverage.
In fact, something less than a comprehensive reform might
pick up support from Democrats, making it difficult for Obama to veto a
bill.And that could show the ability of
Republicans to work across the aisle, which many voters say they want above all
from the two parties.
Much the same is true for immigration.While some Republicans believe the
approximately 11 million undocumented people could all be deported, many,
perhaps most, GOP members of Congress recognize this is impossible and
politically unwise.
Obama’s unilateral immigration move could open the door to
bipartisan legislative solutions, far more desirable than his broad use of
presidential power.But his action may
stand if Congress fails to agree.
Then, there’s tax reform.The tax extenders bill, the last major piece of legislation signed by
the president in 2014, was mostly a collection of big breaks for large
corporations.These loopholes reduced the
supposedly high corporate tax rate.
The parties ought to be able to agree on eliminating loopholes
and lowering the corporate tax rate.According to their rhetoric, they could even try to simplify the increasingly
complex tax code.
What about the Democrats?For one thing, they should avoid becoming “the party of ‘no’.”
They need to offer positive policies and not mimic the
GOP.And they need to make their case
much better than they have in recent years.
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