The Platner affair and what it does and doesn’t mean
Maine goes it own way, not what the pundits say
Gordon L. Weil
“As Maine Goes, So Goes the Nation.”
When Maine formerly voted in September, the result might
predict the national result in November.
It didn’t, and the saying died.
But it seems to be making a comeback. The selection of a replacement candidate for
the U.S. Senate has led the national media to act as if Maine is again the
great predicter. They’re wrong, and the
saying can stay dead.
Having been involved in Maine Democratic politics for
decades, here is my perspective in the selection a replacement for
scandal-prone Graham Platner.
What is the focus of the Maine Senate election?
Donald Trump. Many voters
have tired of him and see Sen. Susan Collins as a Republican enabler, who should
be replaced. The Democratic candidate needs to be the person most likely to keep
her from a sixth term, as the best way to control Trump.
How did Platner get the nomination?
Maine Gov. Janet Mills was the pick of the Washington
Democratic leaders as the most likely person to defeat Collins. Their judgment was based on her having won
two statewide elections. But they ignored
that she has been a center-right governor, sometimes overriding her own Democratically
dominated Legislature. Plus, she would
be the oldest first-year U.S. senator ever.
Platner is younger and aligned with a progressive state
Democratic Party. He ran with nothing to lose, when the Party had automatically
accepted Mills, the conventional choice.
Without much competition, he quickly began polling better than Mills. Her money dried up.
Did Platner’s selection reflect a split between
progressives and moderates?
Possibly, but not much.
First, there’s not a deep split in Maine. The Democrats are generally progressive. Second, it was a matter of age. Collins is old. Sen. Angus King is old. Mills
is old. While the state itself has the
oldest median age, old people recognize the limits of age, and younger people
feel disenfranchised.
In the 2016 Maine Democratic caucuses and convention, Sen. Bernie
Sanders, the progressive, defeated Sec. Hilary Clinton, the moderate, by 64% to
36%. The progressives won 10 years
ago. Platner’s win was not a major
shift, though it revealed the Party’s disappointment with Mills.
To be clear, the pundits are wrong. They read too much into the split among
Democratic hopefuls. It’s about ambition
and not ideology. None of the aspirants
is as right-leaning as Mills. The race
is not focused on a struggle between progressives and moderates, though some
aspirants may try to promote themselves as moderates, fulfilling the false scenario.
Should Platner have been better vetted?
Sanders’ endorsement of Platner made his candidacy. Based on his platform, in line with
Sanders-Warren, there’s no indication that any attention was paid to his
character. It was much like Sen. Minority
Leader Chuck Schumer’s endorsement of Mills, based on his superficial finding
that she could defeat Collins, while ignoring her problems with Maine Democrats.
The endorsements of Mills and then of Platner tried to
impose judgments “from away” on Maine Democrats. Mainers might have expected that national
leaders had vetted their choices. That
didn’t happen. Perhaps Trump’s success
has made personal defects irrelevant to political choice.
In the end, in Maine at least, personal issues finally
mattered. His potential ability to beat
Susan Collins was not enough to keep Platner in the race.
Was Platner forced out by establishment Democrats?
His candidacy achieved credibility when he received
endorsements, with accompanying funding, from national Democrats. Any doubts about his legitimacy were erased. He was largely created by the
establishment. After he abused their
trust and confidence, they dropped him and with them went credibility and cash.
How will his replacement be selected?
Seeking to avoid any mistake that would recall the choice of
Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate, the Maine Party has
decided to hold a weekend convention July 25-26 with about 600 participants, composed
of the State Committee members and delegates selected by caucuses in each of
Maine’s 16 counties.
The delegates will not be pledged to candidates. The
convention will hear from all of them, before voting. The Party will inform State Government of the
candidate on July 27.
Who is in the race?
Three kinds of candidates.
First, present or former officeholders.
Second, losers in the recent primary for governor or Second House District,
including people who have never won an election. Third, outsiders who offer a new face. Each must get voter signatures to run.
It’s probable that the first group will produce the candidate,
either Secretary of State Shenna Bellows or former Senate President Troy Jackson. Both
ran for governor, but did not gain the nomination.
Bellows ran well in central Maine, might appeal as a female candidate,
and has a strong anti-Trump record, having fought him in court. Jackson ran well in northern Maine, where his
appeal could help the Party, and was endorsed by Sanders. He will appeal to former Platner supporters. Both he and Bellows are well-liked former legislators
and not hostile to one another.
In the second group is Nirav Shah, the former State CDC
director, who did well in the governor’s primary. A relatively recent Maine resident, he has
not held elective office.
It’s possible the two-week campaign will draw positive attention
to the Democrats, allowing them to leave Platner behind. The Platner affair could end up helping the
Democrats. Collins has already signaled that her backers will go on the attack,
no matter who is the nominee.
