Trump’s control grows as he wins key race
Maine could see what Massie faced
Gordon L. Weil
The Massie primary in Kentucky answered a lot of questions.
The race, testing GOP Rep. Thomas Massie’s anti-Trump
appeal, produced some clear messages, including at least one that could affect Maine.
This contest was the most expensive congressional primary in
history. It showed that Trump backers
are willing to spend tens of millions of dollars to help him in his quest to
maintain domination of Congress. They
may reasonably expect favorable treatment of their interests – ranging from
backing Israel to reduced environmental regulation – in return.
In fact, his endorsement may matter less than the Trump oligarchy
in operation. He has amassed a huge war
chest for the congressional elections in November, and the Massie race revealed
that political money can make a difference.
Massie did well in fundraising, but trailed Ed Gallrein, Trump’s pick,
and lost by almost 10 percent in a district that he had easily held.
A key part of Gallrein’s financial support came from the
America-Israel Public Affairs Committee and Miriam Adelson, a major backer of
Israel. Massie has opposed the Iran war
and, as a balanced-budget libertarian, additional funding for Israel’s
military. His extreme positions aroused
the opposition of pro-Israel forces.
In Maine, if Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for
the U.S. Senate, he might expect an outpouring of pro-Israel funding to support
Sen. Susan Collins, like what happened in Kentucky. Platner is tagged with being
pro-Palestinian. Because the Democrats
see this Senate seat as a likely pick-up, the result could become a big spending
duel.
Kentucky is a solidly Republican state when in federal elections;
it is a solid-Trump state. While almost
two-thirds of Americans reportedly oppose the Iran war, a strong majority of
Republicans supports it. Any concern they
may have about rising prices, especially at the gas pump, matters less than fidelity
to Trump.
If any further proof were needed, the Massie defeat emphasized
that the traditional GOP, conservative on economic policy and moderate on
social policy, no longer exists. The
party has been completely absorbed by Trump and his MAGA movement. The Republican Party is his to command.
Though Trump will be a true lame duck president beginning next
January, there is yet no sign that his power over the GOP is fading. Flying in the face of Republican Senate leadership
on the same day as the Massie race, he endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken
Paxton, a MAGA man, over Sen. John Cornyn.
Temporarily alienating his own Senate party did not worry Trump.
A Massie victory might have encouraged other GOP House
members to put some distance between themselves and Trump during this fall’s
campaign. But they will worry that GOP
support would weaken unless they keep in Trump’s favor. Even after the possibility of primary
challenges has past, many will want his seal of approval and campaign cash.
Given the strong Republican loyalty to Trump, the Democrats
would need to do more than run on the simple promise of not being Trumpers. They need an agenda and to avoid turning the
race for their party’s presidential nomination into a bloody battle. Whether they can do either are open
questions. Maybe Trump will stumble, but
he seems to be impervious to criticism.
There’s solid evidence that allegiance to Trump is based
more on fear than fidelity. After Louisiana
Republicans dumped Sen. Bill Cassidy, he immediately joined GOP dissidents who
want the Iran war to pass congressional scrutiny. And since North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis
decided not to seek reelection, he has become a more open Trump skeptic.
As libertarians, Massie and Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul
oppose authoritarianism à la Trump. They
will not concede their principles even under the threat of losing elections. Much of the Massie agenda is extreme
right-wing, out of touch with public needs and political reality. But he is a person of principle, a rarity in
a world where appeasing Trump may be a necessity.
In his concession speech, Massie said, “what started out as
an election turned into a movement.” He
argued that this new political movement is composed of younger voters who do
not accept unlimited government spending and foreign involvement. His platform is starkly conservative, but
insistent on the Bill of Rights.
Massie obviously expects to be a leader of this movement. Trump and MAGA have undoubtedly not seen the
last of him. He might even run for
president in 2028, either in Republican primaries or as the Libertarian Party candidate.
Now, Trump can feel confident in his political position,
although the Iran war and its economic impact weigh heavily in the electoral
balance. Will a majority of voters in
districts across the country vote this November in their own economic interests
or will they remain loyal to the man who has captured the political system?
