Trump’s control grows as he wins key race

 

Trump’s control grows as he wins key race

Maine could see what Massie faced

 

Gordon L. Weil

The Massie primary in Kentucky answered a lot of questions.

The race, testing GOP Rep. Thomas Massie’s anti-Trump appeal, produced some clear messages, including at least one that could affect Maine.

This contest was the most expensive congressional primary in history.  It showed that Trump backers are willing to spend tens of millions of dollars to help him in his quest to maintain domination of Congress.   They may reasonably expect favorable treatment of their interests – ranging from backing Israel to reduced environmental regulation – in return.

In fact, his endorsement may matter less than the Trump oligarchy in operation.  He has amassed a huge war chest for the congressional elections in November, and the Massie race revealed that political money can make a difference.  Massie did well in fundraising, but trailed Ed Gallrein, Trump’s pick, and lost by almost 10 percent in a district that he had easily held.

A key part of Gallrein’s financial support came from the America-Israel Public Affairs Committee and Miriam Adelson, a major backer of Israel.  Massie has opposed the Iran war and, as a balanced-budget libertarian, additional funding for Israel’s military.  His extreme positions aroused the opposition of pro-Israel forces.

In Maine, if Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, he might expect an outpouring of pro-Israel funding to support Sen. Susan Collins, like what happened in Kentucky.  Platner is tagged with being pro-Palestinian.  Because the Democrats see this Senate seat as a likely pick-up, the result could become a big spending duel. 

Kentucky is a solidly Republican state when in federal elections; it is a solid-Trump state.   While almost two-thirds of Americans reportedly oppose the Iran war, a strong majority of Republicans supports it.  Any concern they may have about rising prices, especially at the gas pump, matters less than fidelity to Trump. 

If any further proof were needed, the Massie defeat emphasized that the traditional GOP, conservative on economic policy and moderate on social policy, no longer exists.  The party has been completely absorbed by Trump and his MAGA movement.  The Republican Party is his to command.

Though Trump will be a true lame duck president beginning next January, there is yet no sign that his power over the GOP is fading.  Flying in the face of Republican Senate leadership on the same day as the Massie race, he endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a MAGA man, over Sen. John Cornyn.  Temporarily alienating his own Senate party did not worry Trump.

A Massie victory might have encouraged other GOP House members to put some distance between themselves and Trump during this fall’s campaign.  But they will worry that GOP support would weaken unless they keep in Trump’s favor.  Even after the possibility of primary challenges has past, many will want his seal of approval and campaign cash.

Given the strong Republican loyalty to Trump, the Democrats would need to do more than run on the simple promise of not being Trumpers.  They need an agenda and to avoid turning the race for their party’s presidential nomination into a bloody battle.  Whether they can do either are open questions.  Maybe Trump will stumble, but he seems to be impervious to criticism.

There’s solid evidence that allegiance to Trump is based more on fear than fidelity.  After Louisiana Republicans dumped Sen. Bill Cassidy, he immediately joined GOP dissidents who want the Iran war to pass congressional scrutiny.  And since North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis decided not to seek reelection, he has become a more open Trump skeptic.

As libertarians, Massie and Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul oppose authoritarianism à la Trump.  They will not concede their principles even under the threat of losing elections.  Much of the Massie agenda is extreme right-wing, out of touch with public needs and political reality.  But he is a person of principle, a rarity in a world where appeasing Trump may be a necessity.

In his concession speech, Massie said, “what started out as an election turned into a movement.”  He argued that this new political movement is composed of younger voters who do not accept unlimited government spending and foreign involvement.  His platform is starkly conservative, but insistent on the Bill of Rights.

Massie obviously expects to be a leader of this movement.  Trump and MAGA have undoubtedly not seen the last of him.  He might even run for president in 2028, either in Republican primaries or as the Libertarian Party candidate.

Now, Trump can feel confident in his political position, although the Iran war and its economic impact weigh heavily in the electoral balance.   Will a majority of voters in districts across the country vote this November in their own economic interests or will they remain loyal to the man who has captured the political system?