Sen. Collins meets the common man

Sen. Collins meets the common man

Big money, big attacks coming

 

Gordon L. Weil

Gov. Janet Mills left the Maine Democratic Senate primary race, and the pundits flooded the media with their opinions.

Her story fit their story: the Democratic Party is split between traditional moderates and leftwing progressives.   Her withdrawal showed the progressives are gaining.

The pundits may have been partly correct, but that’s not the whole story.  The split was more practical than ideological.  The dominant question was not about the direction of the Democratic Party, but who had the best chance of defeating Sen. Susan Collins.

The almost automatic response was that Mills, a proven statewide winner with high name recognition, was the ideal candidate to end Collins’ hold on the Senate seat.  Undoubtedly, that led Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, to endorse Mills, but it proved to be too simple a theory.

Sen. Susan Collins usually looks vulnerable to a Democratic challenger, but always wins.  This year, for the first time, with Mills out, she will face a candidate who has not previously held public office – an outsider.   Mills gave way to Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who never held a higher office than harbormaster.

Mills got into the race late.  Collins, who too often had supported President Trump, was losing her reputation as a rare GOP moderate.   Mills, as a two-time statewide winner, could have calculated that her right-of-center record and high voter recognition would give her an advantage.  Platner, already running, could be easily defeated.

She might have believed that she could readily assemble a coalition of coastal liberal voters and her more inland moderate constituents.  After all, that has worked in the Legislature while she’s been governor. 

But Mainers, like people elsewhere, are increasingly dissatisfied with the failure of government, federal or state, to improve their lives.  Collins could bring home Capitol largesse, but a new dock or dam doesn’t put food on the table or gas in the tank.

This sentiment suggests voter despair with both parties.  Voters say they want a candidate who expresses independence from the system.   Sen. Angus King may be an independent, but he comes across as a conventional Democrat. 

Platner appears as bold, basic and original.  His personal defects have emerged, notably a tattoo linked to Nazi symbols and his negative posts about women and even lobstermen.  He readily admits his errors, attributing them to a heedless youth.  Though virtually sure to win, he still faces a respectable, but unfunded, primary opponent.

Collins campaign allies are already attacking him for these faults, but the Democrats seem undeterred.  Since candidate Trump survived his Access Hollywood remarks about grabbing women, voters may have come to ignore the past failings of candidates whose politics they prefer.

The pundits focus on Maine as a purple state – one that could swing between the red GOP and the blue Dems.  One of its two congressional districts has voted for Trump each election.  That might raise doubts about Platner, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, when facing a statewide electorate.

Trump’s popularity has reflected discontent with government among many Second District rural voters, but he may have lost some appeal.  He backs a candidate in the GOP governor’s primary and has attracted massive financing for him, which pays for a big media buy.  But, at this stage, he is still trailing a more traditional conservative.

Many Democrats saw Mills as too right-of-center.  She opposed the creation of a system of public defenders, though Maine was the last state without one.  She later gave some ground.  Just before her departure, she vetoed a Democratic move to suspend approval of any data centers in the state, which would have set Maine apart.

At 78, Mills’ age counted against her.  She would have been the oldest first-year senator ever.  King, the other Maine senator, is 82.  Maine has the oldest median age, and many seniors are aware of the limits imposed by age when working the long hours required by public life.

Collins, 73, faces age and possibly a health issue, a “benign essential tremor.”  No Mainer has ever served six terms in the U.S. Senate, as she would.  Platner, 41, is slightly younger than the state’s median age of 45.  He will face relentless attacks focusing on his past.  Collins may have some deniability, if her campaign does not directly sponsor the ads.

Her split-the-difference form of moderation will be weakened by her having backed Trump’s cabinet nominations and key policies.  She rarely differs with the president when it counts.

The Maine GOP is divided between moderates and conservatives.   Collins may have miscalculated that she can still hold onto both Rockefeller Republicans and MAGA Trumpers.   She clings to her Senate seat, unlike Olympia Snowe, a GOP moderate who retired gracefully.  Platner may be strong competition in a down year.

Let the campaign cash flow.