Trump is a gambler, not a dealmaker

 

Trump is a gambler, not a dealmaker

Goes for ‘winner take all’

 

Gordon L. Weil

“The Art of the Deal,” the Trump bible, supposedly shows that the president is the unsurpassed master of negotiations.

In fact, it reveals that Trump is not a negotiator, but a gambler.  Trying to force Ukraine President Volodimir Zelenskyy to accept Russian territorial demands, he said that Putin “holds all the cards.”  In his war against Iran, he said the U.S. “holds all the cards.”  That’s the talk of the poker table, not dealmaking.

His book’s 11-point principles focus on how to behave more like a high-stakes gambler than a negotiator seeking to arrive at a deal.

Negotiating means working to reach a bargain between parties seeking to make a deal that is at least acceptable to each.   Both parties want to maximize their gains, but understand that cannot mean a “winner-take-all” outcome.

Trump’s priority is to defeat the other side.  His idea of a deal would yield control not compromise.

These days, Trump tries to combine the power of his personality with American military power, making every deal into his “winner-take-all.”  To achieve his goal, he has developed a distinctly personal negotiating style.

In typical negotiations, each side has an opening position, and they see if they can find a workable balance of interests.  Of course, one side may have greater power, but it’s hard to find a situation in which one side had “all the cards.”  If it did, there would be no need for negotiations.  But Trump doesn’t negotiate.  There are few talks; he issues ultimatums.

Without any attempt at negotiations, he raised tariffs on all other countries.  He expected them to ask him to lower increases in return for their reducing any trade deficit with the U.S.  Most did, even when the preexisting trade was fair.  The net result was an increase in prices almost worldwide.  Plus, considerable discomfort or even animosity among other countries.

In its trade war on the world, the U.S. caused nations to retreat, except China and Canada.  It has led other countries to take steps to reduce their trade with the U.S.  Canada’s Carney has pushed the idea of “middle powers” working together to increase their trade and shared development, and it’s working.

Trump applied much the same approach with Iran, though he has depended mainly on the threat of American force.   Having seen Venezuelan resistance fold, he thought the U.S. would have a similar effect on Iran.  He failed to understand the difference between the two countries.  Iran has resisted, exploiting its dominance of the Strait of Hormuz.

In its effort to force Iran to accept Trump’s demands, the U.S. has had to deplete its weaponry.  It has transferred naval vessels to the Middle East, leaving international Asian waterways open to China’s claims of sovereignty.   Despite major increases in military spending, it has accepted defensive help by Ukrainian drones, deployed in Arab countries.

Trump looks for public plaudits for his dealmaking. But his Israel-Gaza deal never got beyond Israel getting its hostages back.  His Board of Peace, designed to rebuild Gaza and replace the U.N., has almost disappeared.  He briefly got the spotlight, but his Gaza plans died, possibly from an overdose of ego.

His charm offensive with Kim Jung-un in North Korea, produced nothing, and the country has sent troops to aid the Russians, who now aid Kim.  Despite his self-promotion, the Nobel Peace Prize remains elusive.

Trump may be learning that winner-take-all only works in world affairs when one side is hugely more powerful than the other.  Recent events have shown there are now no great powers. 

The U.S. had to back down on Greenland and can’t prevail in Iran. 

Russia, supposedly the major threat to Western Europe, can’t take over Ukraine, which it thought would fall in days.   

China seemingly wants superpower benefits, mostly economic, without the responsibilities of leadership.

At home, Trump devotes little attention to much beyond retaliating against his critics. He doesn’t make deals.  He does not devise common plans with the GOP leaders of the House and Senate.  He seldom sits down with his own legislators, but often threatens them.  He never talks with the Democrats.

Conference committees formerly negotiated gaps between the two houses, but they have disappeared.   Trump obviously prefers congressional inaction that gives him the scope to act independently, but his executive orders frequently become tangled in court proceedings.  As grandstanding that may work, but there’s no sign of deals, much less artistry.

The great gambler is proving not to be great at government, a different game.  He has promised that his negotiating skills would bring quick results on Ukraine and inflation.  But the record-setting government shutdown and the prolonged Iran war lead his loyalists and others to understand that he can’t make deals or keep many of his high-priority promises.