Trump is a gambler, not a dealmaker
Goes for ‘winner take all’
Gordon L. Weil
“The Art of the Deal,” the Trump bible, supposedly shows
that the president is the unsurpassed master of negotiations.
In fact, it reveals that Trump is not a negotiator, but a
gambler. Trying to force Ukraine
President Volodimir Zelenskyy to accept Russian territorial demands, he said that
Putin “holds all the cards.” In his war against
Iran, he said the U.S. “holds all the cards.”
That’s the talk of the poker table, not dealmaking.
His book’s 11-point principles focus on how to behave more
like a high-stakes gambler than a negotiator seeking to arrive at a deal.
Negotiating means working to reach a bargain between parties
seeking to make a deal that is at least acceptable to each. Both parties want to maximize their gains,
but understand that cannot mean a “winner-take-all” outcome.
Trump’s priority is to defeat the other side. His idea of a deal would yield control not compromise.
These days, Trump tries to combine the power of his personality
with American military power, making every deal into his “winner-take-all.” To achieve his goal, he has developed a
distinctly personal negotiating style.
In typical negotiations, each side has an opening position,
and they see if they can find a workable balance of interests. Of course, one side may have greater power,
but it’s hard to find a situation in which one side had “all the cards.” If it did, there would be no need for negotiations. But Trump doesn’t negotiate. There are few talks; he issues ultimatums.
Without any attempt at negotiations, he raised tariffs on
all other countries. He expected them to
ask him to lower increases in return for their reducing any trade deficit with the
U.S. Most did, even when the preexisting
trade was fair. The net result was an
increase in prices almost worldwide.
Plus, considerable discomfort or even animosity among other countries.
In its trade war on the world, the U.S. caused nations to retreat,
except China and Canada. It has led
other countries to take steps to reduce their trade with the U.S. Canada’s Carney has pushed the idea of “middle
powers” working together to increase their trade and shared development, and it’s
working.
Trump applied much the same approach with Iran, though he has
depended mainly on the threat of American force. Having seen Venezuelan resistance fold, he
thought the U.S. would have a similar effect on Iran. He failed to understand the difference
between the two countries. Iran has resisted,
exploiting its dominance of the Strait of Hormuz.
In its effort to force Iran to accept Trump’s demands, the
U.S. has had to deplete its weaponry. It
has transferred naval vessels to the Middle East, leaving international Asian waterways
open to China’s claims of sovereignty.
Despite major increases in military spending, it has accepted defensive
help by Ukrainian drones, deployed in Arab countries.
Trump looks for public plaudits for his dealmaking. But his
Israel-Gaza deal never got beyond Israel getting its hostages back. His Board of Peace, designed to rebuild Gaza and
replace the U.N., has almost disappeared.
He briefly got the spotlight, but his Gaza plans died, possibly from an
overdose of ego.
His charm offensive with Kim Jung-un in North Korea,
produced nothing, and the country has sent troops to aid the Russians, who now
aid Kim. Despite his self-promotion, the
Nobel Peace Prize remains elusive.
Trump may be learning that winner-take-all only works in
world affairs when one side is hugely more powerful than the other. Recent events have shown there are now no
great powers.
The U.S. had to back down on Greenland and can’t prevail in
Iran.
Russia, supposedly the major threat to Western Europe, can’t
take over Ukraine, which it thought would fall in days.
China seemingly wants superpower benefits, mostly economic,
without the responsibilities of leadership.
At home, Trump devotes little attention to much beyond retaliating
against his critics. He doesn’t make deals.
He does not devise common plans with the GOP leaders of the House and
Senate. He seldom sits down with his own
legislators, but often threatens them.
He never talks with the Democrats.
Conference committees formerly negotiated gaps between the
two houses, but they have disappeared.
Trump obviously prefers congressional inaction that gives him the scope
to act independently, but his executive orders frequently become tangled in court
proceedings. As grandstanding that may
work, but there’s no sign of deals, much less artistry.
The great gambler is proving not to be great at government, a
different game. He has promised that his
negotiating skills would bring quick results on Ukraine and inflation. But the record-setting government shutdown
and the prolonged Iran war lead his loyalists and others to understand that he can’t
make deals or keep many of his high-priority promises.
