Trump is a gambler, not a dealmaker

 

Trump is a gambler, not a dealmaker

Goes for ‘winner take all’

 

Gordon L. Weil

“The Art of the Deal,” the Trump bible, supposedly shows that the president is the unsurpassed master of negotiations.

In fact, it reveals that Trump is not a negotiator, but a gambler.  Trying to force Ukraine President Volodimir Zelenskyy to accept Russian territorial demands, he said that Putin “holds all the cards.”  In his war against Iran, he said the U.S. “holds all the cards.”  That’s the talk of the poker table, not dealmaking.

His book’s 11-point principles focus on how to behave more like a high-stakes gambler than a negotiator seeking to arrive at a deal.

Negotiating means working to reach a bargain between parties seeking to make a deal that is at least acceptable to each.   Both parties want to maximize their gains, but understand that cannot mean a “winner-take-all” outcome.

Trump’s priority is to defeat the other side.  His idea of a deal would yield control not compromise.

These days, Trump tries to combine the power of his personality with American military power, making every deal into his “winner-take-all.”  To achieve his goal, he has developed a distinctly personal negotiating style.

In typical negotiations, each side has an opening position, and they see if they can find a workable balance of interests.  Of course, one side may have greater power, but it’s hard to find a situation in which one side had “all the cards.”  If it did, there would be no need for negotiations.  But Trump doesn’t negotiate.  There are few talks; he issues ultimatums.

Without any attempt at negotiations, he raised tariffs on all other countries.  He expected them to ask him to lower increases in return for their reducing any trade deficit with the U.S.  Most did, even when the preexisting trade was fair.  The net result was an increase in prices almost worldwide.  Plus, considerable discomfort or even animosity among other countries.

In its trade war on the world, the U.S. caused nations to retreat, except China and Canada.  It has led other countries to take steps to reduce their trade with the U.S.  Canada’s Carney has pushed the idea of “middle powers” working together to increase their trade and shared development, and it’s working.

Trump applied much the same approach with Iran, though he has depended mainly on the threat of American force.   Having seen Venezuelan resistance fold, he thought the U.S. would have a similar effect on Iran.  He failed to understand the difference between the two countries.  Iran has resisted, exploiting its dominance of the Strait of Hormuz.

In its effort to force Iran to accept Trump’s demands, the U.S. has had to deplete its weaponry.  It has transferred naval vessels to the Middle East, leaving international Asian waterways open to China’s claims of sovereignty.   Despite major increases in military spending, it has accepted defensive help by Ukrainian drones, deployed in Arab countries.

Trump looks for public plaudits for his dealmaking. But his Israel-Gaza deal never got beyond Israel getting its hostages back.  His Board of Peace, designed to rebuild Gaza and replace the U.N., has almost disappeared.  He briefly got the spotlight, but his Gaza plans died, possibly from an overdose of ego.

His charm offensive with Kim Jung-un in North Korea, produced nothing, and the country has sent troops to aid the Russians, who now aid Kim.  Despite his self-promotion, the Nobel Peace Prize remains elusive.

Trump may be learning that winner-take-all only works in world affairs when one side is hugely more powerful than the other.  Recent events have shown there are now no great powers. 

The U.S. had to back down on Greenland and can’t prevail in Iran. 

Russia, supposedly the major threat to Western Europe, can’t take over Ukraine, which it thought would fall in days.   

China seemingly wants superpower benefits, mostly economic, without the responsibilities of leadership.

At home, Trump devotes little attention to much beyond retaliating against his critics. He doesn’t make deals.  He does not devise common plans with the GOP leaders of the House and Senate.  He seldom sits down with his own legislators, but often threatens them.  He never talks with the Democrats.

Conference committees formerly negotiated gaps between the two houses, but they have disappeared.   Trump obviously prefers congressional inaction that gives him the scope to act independently, but his executive orders frequently become tangled in court proceedings.  As grandstanding that may work, but there’s no sign of deals, much less artistry.

The great gambler is proving not to be great at government, a different game.  He has promised that his negotiating skills would bring quick results on Ukraine and inflation.  But the record-setting government shutdown and the prolonged Iran war lead his loyalists and others to understand that he can’t make deals or keep many of his high-priority promises.

Trump's personal presidency

Gordon L. Weil

Trying to figure out Donald Trump may be the prime American indoor sport.  His barrage of new policies has left people trying to figure out their president. 

Some see him as a great deal maker. Others see him as erratic.  Still others may believe he is not completely sane or that he is sliding into senility.

What do we know about him?

His goals are reasonably clear: (1) restoring American manufacturing by making imports more costly, (2) reducing regulation to improve corporate profitability and boost the economy, (3) ending “woke” policies, (4) cutting the size and functions of the federal government and (5) blocking and expelling illegal immigrants.

Each of these goals has its supporters, creating the coalition that backs him, but his unpredictable methods have raised concerns even among those backers.  His methods may do more harm than the good his supporters see in his goals.

Here’s a look at his policies and actions to see who Trump really is.

He focuses on the immediate, the short term.  Raise tariffs, change policies, shut agencies. Do that now.  That can produce surprise and quick results. It may be the way a newly elected president can best take advantage of his election victory.

But this almost impetuous style means that he ignores history’s lessons.  He does not understand why Ukraine won’t simply quit the war Russia started and end the bloodshed.  He has learned that other presidents favored high tariffs, but seems unaware of the disastrous effect of those moves.

By acting quickly, he ignores side effects.  His tariff policy might boost domestic production, but that takes time while tariffs take effect immediately.  Meanwhile, the economy will slow, prices will rise and markets will weaken.  He suggests that life will be painful for a while, ignoring the short-term effects on middle income and elderly people.

Though proud to be considered a great negotiator, he makes concessions to Russia, while gaining little from it in return.  He accepts the demands of the Russian aggressor and tries to pressure Ukraine, the victim, to surrender. 

He uses the economic tools at his disposal to force others to accept his views. Maine has only two trans students in high school sports, but he wants to cut off all federal funding to the state unless it outlaws the policy making that possible.

He is insensitive to intangible values.  He seems not to understand that his policy would strip Ukraine of its sovereignty, to him an abstraction compared to a ceasefire.  Similarly, attacking universities, he shows no understanding of academic freedom.  In both cases, he ignores the values and history of those he would control.

He reveals human traits.  He bullies those he would control.  He retaliates, using his government powers, against those he sees as past opponents, from government officials to law firms.  He persists in falsehoods that support his policies, even after being confronted with hard facts.  He is heedless of the concerns of others, even major allies.

He is president of the greatest power in the world, but he still craves acceptance in the select clubs of the rich and powerful.  He likes to associate with fellow billionaires and with national leaders who can wield dictatorial powers. 

At the same time, he continually and immodestly asserts that what he is doing exceeds the accomplishments of any predecessor and that the results are historic.  He feeds on the praise of others and lavishes it on himself.  He shows no embarrassment when other national leaders and his own agents shower him with compliments.

The result is the most personal presidency in American history.  His desire to add Greenland and Canada and maybe even Panama and Gaza to the U.S. seems to be more about his desire to find a place in history for himself than the demands of political or military reality.

Many of Trump’s personal and political characteristics differ from any previous president. He seems ready to inspire fear as an instrument of his style of government. Thus far, he is unchecked by other branches of government, and he intimidates his critics.

His lack of respect for history, cooperation and compromise, and the concerns of others represents change, which voters said they wanted. But change under Trump may come at a high price for the country and its standing in the world.

Experts may opine about the reasons why Donald Trump is the man and president he is.  His business background, his family, and his lack of relationships with average people have undoubtedly shaped him.

I leave psychological or medical judgments to others.  Donald Trump most reminds me of a kid in fifth grade who is not yet mature enough to understand history or how to relate effectively with others, but is strong enough to bully his classmates.