Trump policies: American boomerang
Unintended consequences always happen
Gordon L. Weil
Here’s the theory of Trump’s policy: I dispose of the power
of the U.S., the greatest military and economic power in the world, and can use
it to force others, weaker and dependent, to fall into line.
Here’s the reality: I dispose of the power of the U.S., but
it is not enough to force others, who increasingly sense their independence, to
fall into line, revealing limits on American power.
The policies Trump tries to impose on others turn on him. The American symbol is less the screaming eagle
than the boomerang, the Australian missile that comes back to its sender. What goes around, comes around.
These days, boomerangs are flying.
Trade negotiations with Canada finally seemed to become
focused. Canadian Prime Minister Mark
Carney proposed “Fortress North America,” a free trade agreement between the
two countries and a joint foreign trade policy. That’s similar to what the two countries had
been developing before Trump launched his tariff wars, when Canada was almost the
51st state.
Trump claims that Canada wants the benefits of American
statehood at no cost. But the U.S. wants
to formally install the 51st state in all but name. It sought to determine Canada’s trade
policies, be authorized to freely nullify their new trade agreement, and let American
exporters ignore Canadian language laws.
In return, the U.S. would lower some tariffs it had raised.
While Trump thought he was nearing a deal, Canada refused last-minute
American demands. Canada insisted on its
status as a sovereign nation, despite the sneers of U.S. officials. U.S. negotiators believed that Canada was
ready to surrender, leaving them surprised when Canada quit the talks. Boomerang.
In Iran, the U.S. went to war, while Iranians were ready for
continued negotiations. But supposedly the threat of American power was so great
that Iran should simply fold. Why negotiate
when a brief display of American power could settle matters?
The war turned out to be lengthy and made matters worse, as Iran
managed to close the Strait of Hormuz, causing an increase in world oil prices.
In the U.S., rising consumer prices and dislike of “forever wars” hampered Trump’s
extended and costly attacks. The president
could not convince Americans that ending Iran’s nuclear potential was worth the
cost.
Military pressure having fallen short, Trump reverted this
week to increased economic sanctions. Usually,
countries apply maximum economic pressure before taking up arms. It saves lives. But this time, the U.S. did it
backwards. Boomerang.
As part of its desperate economic sanctions, the Trump
administration also threatened other countries that trade with Iran. Will that apply to Russia? For all the bluster, the U.S. recognized its dependence
on China and limited the sanctions.
China was not happy and remains a major customer for Iran’s oil. Boomerang.
Trump’s tariff policy has been aimed at restoring American production
thanks to increased tariff protection.
He has gradually learned that American consumers pay the price when
importers pass on their increased costs.
He may punish some foreign producers, but he also punishes Americans at
the gas pump or in the grocery aisle.
The trade policy has failed. Part of it was not legal, and the government
must refund tariff revenues. Tariffs
have boosted prices faster than incomes, turning “affordability” from a bureaucratic
term into a political banner. Tariff
policy went from being a MAGA basic to a GOP embarrassment.
This week, Trump cut beef import tariffs as hamburger prices
soared. The American cattle industry, beginning
to recover with the tariffs, was furious.
When the tariff policy did not work at the supermarket, it was suddenly reversed. That created a political reaction in cattle
country, and congressional candidates immediately knew it. Boomerang.
Even when Trump’s policy works, its excesses lead to
unintended consequences. He ran on
keeping his promises and, in perhaps the key area, he has. He took advantage of broad public sentiment in
stopping the flow of illegal entrants across the southern border. It worked.
But he has gone further, promising to expel illegal residents
with criminal records. That, too, received
broad support. But, to reduce the population
of undocumented residents quickly, his administration focused more on people
leading ordinary lives. Those people are
the easiest to catch and their arrests run up the number of expulsions.
Sectors like agriculture and health care have suffered for
the lack of immigrant employment. People
may react negatively when their law-abiding, long-term neighbors are whisked
away. The most popular Trump policy has
failed to produce popular results. As
with all other policy areas, immigration has become a net negative for Trump. Boomerang.
All of these over-confident policies have been adopted
without a good understanding of their implications. They come back to Trump, making matters worse
for him, others and the country. It’s a classic
boomerang.
