Gordon L. Weil
This election is different.
The polls say it will be decided by a handful of votes, but
they could be flat wrong. The most
responsible pollsters admit that they could be wrong, and that they may be
following each other in a herd. Survey
forecasts have become nothing more than conventional wisdom right now.
Candidates and campaigns on both sides have been showing
signs of desperation and panic. While
that may be caused by pollsters’ forecasts, it could well reveal their own confusion. And fear runs deep.
The main difference in the election is obvious and could be
critical. It pits a former president trying
to make a comeback against the current vice president, a non-white woman.
More than most past elections, this one is dominated by
fear. The cause of confusion and fear is the daily data fix of the polls. Polling has become an art, not a science. Successfully completed interviews yield a
poor sample of the voters and are subject to arbitrary and questionable adjustments
made by competing pollsters.
For many reasons, the polls may not forecast the election.
Polls themselves. Their
unrelenting predictions of a close race could create their own reality,
influence voters, and have direct but unmeasurable effects.
Lies. People lie to
polls. Campaigns and their allies,
including foreign governments, lie to voters.
The social media, hiding behind America’s cherished free speech, have
become a political cesspool. The effect
of extreme charges offered as the truth is unmeasurable.
Loyalty. Donald Trump
has extraordinarily loyal followers, allowing them to justify or ignore his extreme
conduct, which goes beyond traditional bounds.
Their number and their turnout to vote are incalculable, but Trump
counts on it heavily.
Traditional Republicans.
In 2016, Trump won with the support of people seeking change and loyal
GOP voters. This year, the opposition of
traditional Republicans, led by former Rep. Liz Cheney, raises the possibility
of significant defections. They may not answer polls, but they could turn out
to be the real swing vote.
Women. The abortion issue has given Harris the answer to
Trump’s loyal voters. Women are
motivated. Their enthusiasm may help get
out the vote, and it is possible that the existing majority of women voters
over men will grow.
Men. Some men do not
want a woman as president. They may have
doubts Harris’ ability to negotiate with foreign autocrats, as Trump argues. Also, the fact that the U.S. lags behind
Britain, Germany, Italy, India and Australia and other countries in having chosen
a woman leader may reveal something about the American electorate.
Youth. Many of the
new voter registrations reflect first-time, young voters. The polls may not have been able to account
for them. It is possible that many of them will respond to Taylor Swift and
vote for Harris.
Economy. The economy is
healthy with recession and inflation fears quieted, but people ignore the big
picture and still worry about their own pay and prices. The economy should help Harris, but its
individual effects boost Trump. It’s the
biggest single issue, but only for about a quarter of voters, so it may be
overrated.
Biden. Vice
presidents don’t make policy, but they do gain valuable governing
experience. Harris may get credit for
her role backing up Biden, but Trump has succeeded in linking her with the
president, who remains unpopular because he was late to act on immigration and
is held responsible for inflation.
Harris has had a tough time asserting her independence.
Age. Biden was pushed
out by his age, and Trump, obviously declining, would be the oldest
president. Whether his fading and the
possibility of JD Vance as president matters to voters is unknown.
Race. The “browning
of America” is inevitable, but strongly disliked by some people. The immigration issue could well be about
race. Obama’s presidency may have raised
racial sensitivity rather than easing it, and many objections to Harris may be about
her being Black. This may not be a
question that people answer pollsters honestly.
Character. The polls
treat character as just another issue. But character may matter more than all
issues for some voters. Trump’s
statements and threats make him highly controversial, and he has been the focus
of this campaign.
Turnout. The
Democrats seek a big turnout, yielding solid majorities to end Trumpism. The GOP worries and works hard to suppress
the Democratic vote by raising false doubts about ballot security. The surge in early voting could help the
Democrats.
Harris needs a convincing victory if she is to avoid prolonged
battles over the election’s outcome and gain some political room to govern. Trump would relish even a slim win that gets
him to the White House.
Next Tuesday will show just how accurate the polls are and
how different this election really is.
