Is Trump becoming desperate? Outllook for 2026

Gordon L. Weil

Running under the surface of all politics these days is next year’s battle for congressional control.  It will amount to a report card on President Trump, and it could set the terms for his administration’s final years and the 2028 presidential elections.

Trump knows that.   This week he made a televised address that sounded like a campaign speech.  He asked voters to withhold their judgment on his promises until they see the results next year.  Meanwhile, without the required congressional approval, he may make transition payments to taxpayers, beginning with a bonus to military personnel.

That he is desperate to turn around his falling poll ratings was evident from his false claims and extravagant promises.   For example, no reduction in drug prices could exceed 100 percent, but he promised more – “even 600 percent.”  His speech contained none of the bipartisan appeal of a traditional presidential address; it was pure Trump campaigning.

Can he hold onto the congressional control that gives him the ability to do almost anything he wants?   The 2026 elections hold the answer.

The Republican majority now hold a narrow and fluctuating majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate.  

The party of an incumbent president usually loses seats in midterm elections.   Since Franklin D. Roosevelt, only Bill Clinton and the second George Bush picked up seats.  Unlike Trump, they both enjoyed high popularity at the time. 

The Democrats should flip the House.   Trump believes GOP gerrymandering can produce new Republican seats to offset Democratic gains.  The Democrats have reacted by trying to redistrict in states they control.

Even if he is right, a GOP House majority might no longer give him unlimited power.   MAGA loyalists dislike his changing positions on releasing the Epstein files, and his foreign moves.  The obviously limited role allowed House GOP women is also beginning to cause problems.  MAGA members have begun to defy Speaker Mike Johnson, on whom he relies.  

The Senate is not subject to redistricting.  The GOP may now feel safe, but history shows that, like the House, Senate midterm races are influenced by the president’s popularity.  

The election results yield several possible scenarios.

The third term scenario.  Republicans retain control of both houses and act as if Trumpism would roll on in 2028.  Fearful of his ability to defeat them in primaries, GOP members continue to allow him broad powers.

The lame duck scenario.  No matter which party controls one or both houses, Trump’s influence fades.  Members look forward to no longer having him at the top of the ticket, and being forced to run on their own records.

The Democrats would try to create issues for 2028, as they have with healthcare assistance.     If they control the House, they would have an enhanced forum to make their case.

Stalemate scenario.  If the Democrats win the House, they will be able to block at least some of the president’s proposals.  If Trump holds fast to his treatment of the Democrats as “the enemy,” the government could be deadlocked.   The 2028 presidential campaign becomes the sole focus.

If the Democrats win the Senate, it could mean political war.  They could block Trump’s nominees to the courts and executive agencies.  While his veto would limit their chances to dictate their own policies, his power would be substantially reduced.  His eyes on the Prize, he would concentrate on foreign affairs, where congressional power is limited.

Compromise scenario.  If the Democrats were to control either or both houses, Trump could decide to try to make deals with them, in line with political tradition.   His concern with his legacy is greater than his commitment to GOP conservatism.  He wants to be seen positively and hailed for great achievements, so compromise could yield more for him than conflict.

That could explain his surprisingly friendly encounter with Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected New York city mayor.  He was friendly to Mamdani, making many MAGA backers nervous.    Just as an aging President Biden faded from the scene, Trump could compensate for his aging by being less combative.

The Democrats’ burden would then face the choice of either cooperating, which the polls say people want, or seeking partisan redlines as a way of striking a clear contrast with Trump and undermining 2028 Trumpism. 

The media focus is now on gerrymandering and the contest to redraw House maps, but the real 2026 contest may be about whether Trump has retained enough popularity to carry on.   Or is the electorate returning to more traditional GOP conservatism and regaining some confidence in the Democrats?  

Mere opposition to Trump is not enough as the Democratic platform.  While they may not achieve total unity, the Democrats need better leadership and to offer practical alternatives with bipartisan appeal if they want to stage a comeback next year.  

  

Congressional redistricting runs wild

Gordon L. Weil

Gerrymandering is running wild, threatening the popular government created by the Constitution.

With the House of Representatives almost evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, the scramble for control after the 2026 elections is collapsing into a redistricting rush designed to steer more seats to one party or the other.  Gerrymandering is nothing new, but this year there’s a major new twist.

The Republicans, believing that their majority control could be lost as demographics change, use a nationwide push to redistrict, seeking to engineer their long-term control.  Gerrymandering could weaken the influence of Democratic voters and serve as part of the GOP effort to suppress minority voting.

The Supreme Court has ruled that each district within a state must have the same population, ensuring that each voter counts equally.   This usually forces the 44 multi-district states to redraw their lines after each national census, conducted every ten years.

While some states use systems designed to produce non-partisan redistricting, in many others partisan state legislatures tailor the districts to their advantage.  That can mean stuffing as many of the minority party’s voters into as few districts as possible or splitting them to dilute the minority party’s impact everywhere.  That’s gerrymandering.

Now, the once-every-ten-years process is turning into redistricting before each congressional election.  The individual voter is a political pawn, moved to a new district by the party that, for the time being, controls the state legislature.  Elections aren’t an exercise in democracy; they are a game.   The Democrats are now playing the same GOP game.

Gerrymandering (named after a politician who first created a district resembling a salamander) can depress voter turnout.  If a voter is shifted into a district where their party’s candidate is sure to lose, why bother voting?  In gerrymandered Texas, candidates in eight of the 38 districts run unopposed, because opposition would be futile. 

When voters stay home, their absence can affect other races.  A larger turnout of discouraged Democratic voters in Wisconsin, one of the two most gerrymandered states, might have helped the U.S. Senate election of Republican Ron Johnson, who won narrowly.  GOP strategists believe lower turnout helps their candidates.

With constant redistricting, the partisan divide in the U.S. electorate is likely to become locked in.  Control of the House may come to depend on the outcome of a few elections influenced by massive outside spending. 

Before 1967, states could choose how they elected their House members.  Historically, some used statewide voting.  Hawaii, the last state with statewide voting, was forced to abandon it in 1970.  The 1967 law requires all states to use single-member districts.  

If that law were repealed, electing members of Congress statewide could eliminate or reduce gerrymandering.  Candidates might run focusing more on national policy and not merely on their ability to bring home federal dollars. As the Framers intended, they could better reflect the short-term evolution of the popular will on national issues.

This reform is not partisan and would leave the election method to each state.  Both parties could benefit.  Wisconsin, the most gerrymandered GOP state, would likely go from six Republicans and two Democrats to an even 4-4 split.  Maryland, the most gerrymandered Democratic state, would probably go from seven Democrats and one Republican to a 4-4 split.

In some states, like California (more Republican members) or Texas (more Democrats), the changes in House delegations could be substantial.  The potential offsetting advantages across the entire country could reduce the partisan implications of repealing the 1967 law.

States could elect some House members at-large and the remainder by districts.  Maine and Nebraska choose presidential electors this way.  With fewer, larger districts, gerrymandering could be reduced. 

Voters could vote for as many candidates as the number of the at-large House seats in a state, though they could “bullet vote” for as little as one candidate.  This could parallel ranked-choice voting.  Candidates might take moderate positions to broaden their appeal, reducing divisiveness.

Candidates could be listed with their party affiliations.  Voters could choose to vote for all candidates of a single party.  Wider choice could allow non-aligned candidates a better chance of election.   The top candidates equal to the number of a state’s at-large slots, regardless of their affiliation, would be the winners. 

The House election would be separate from statewide voting for president, senators, governor and other state officials.  These are distinct offices, and separate ballots could permit a state’s voters to balance their choices.

If the law were changed and even one large state successfully chose statewide House elections, its move could set an example for other states.  Or elections might stay as they are.

To conform with the Framers’ original intent, restoring this long-standing state right can happen without amending the Constitution.   Ending deepening national division makes it time to think outside the partisan box about reforms like this.