Trump yields to impulse, causes war

Trump yields to impulse, causes war

Expected patriotic reaction

Gordon L. Weil

The spreading effects of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran reveal both President Trump’s impulse and the reflexive reaction to it.

Trump became committed to the attack thanks to the false confidence he gained from his easy success in toppling Venezuela’s president and to unrelenting pressure from Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, who argued that Iran was ripe to end Ayatollah Khamenei’s theocratic rule and its regional terrorism.

By deploying a U.S. Navy armada to the region, Trump prepared to deliver a quick and devastating blow to Iran.  Not only could the anti-American regime be toppled, but the liberated people of Iran could install a more democratic government.

Enjoying almost unlimited power in the U.S., Trump would be able single-handedly to bring peace to the Middle East.  The Middle East would hail his efforts.   By deploying the American power at his disposal as commander in chief, he could gain a quick and positive outcome, bringing himself great credit.

It’s no secret that Trump covets the Nobel Peace Prize.  He defines peace as the absence of war, so that if he can halt battlefield deaths, he should qualify.  The creation of conditions to bring lasting peace, while desirable, is not essential to the achievement.   However, the Nobel Committee is unlikely to award the Prize to a person who bombed his way to it.

Acceding to Israel’s sense of urgency ended the prospects of a negotiated settlement with Iran, though its representatives said that an agreement was at hand.   While a negotiated peace might achieve immediate objectives, especially on Iran’s nuclear development, it would not bring regime change.  Better to destroy its theocracy now than to settle with it.

Trump’s impulse to build on Venezuela fed on itself.  Lacking any military experience, he is obviously impressed by the vast power at his disposal without understanding the limits of purely armed power, especially in relying exclusively on aerial attacks.  He favored air power, because he sought to avoid the political risks resulting from the direct deployment of ground troops.

But his simple impulse caused Trump to ignore the potential effects of his action within and beyond the borders of Iran.  If the U.S. prevailed quickly, there would be few downsides to his brief war.  But the war now drags on, and Trump makes no clear decision on what it will take to end it.  Israel keeps pushing for its continuation.

Impulse ignored inflation.  Endangering the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran can control, the war has driven up the price of oil.  Americans pay more at the gas pump and in the price of many goods.  Strategic petroleum reserves must be drawn down to deal with effects of an artificial emergency.  Improving affordability and reversing inflation are lost. Promises, promises.

Impulse ignored Iran’s ability to extend the war across the Middle East, resulting in deaths of U.S. service personnel, while blindsiding and harming the economies of friendly countries.   Iran was stronger than he thought and pursued a strategy that could deny American victory.

Impulse ignored the need for the help and support of European allies which had only recently been told that they did nothing for the U.S. and weren’t important to American interests.  They had stiffened their backs when he sought to grab Greenland.

Impulse ignored faltering trust and confidence in the U.S., boosting the power of China and Russia.  The Iran war has created opportunities for them with no offsetting American gains.

Trump claimed Iran posed a threat to the U.S.  If an Iranian attack might happen at any moment, instant action, without considering unintended consequences, might be justified.  No evidence was offered that this threat was imminent, requiring an immediate preemptive strike. 

By proclaiming an Iranian threat, the president asked Americans to “rally round the flag.”  The country will support the president when meeting a real threat or attack.  President G.W. Bush’s popularity had soared when he responded to the 9/11 attacks.  Trump might transcend current political issues by issuing his alarm.

The American reflex is to drop partisanship in favor of patriotism when faced with aggression.  Members of Congress feel they must show their loyalty to the country and to the commander in chief.  Their reflex can unify the nation behind its leader.  Their conformity matters, and presidents count on it.

Many Republicans reflexively backed Trump, while Democrats fumbled over a clear reaction, calling for more information and investigations.  That sounds like action, but produces nothing.

The U.S. finds itself in a costly war of questionable necessity.  If skepticism and doubts about the war keep growing, Trump may be held to account by the voters.  Worry about electoral blowback could end the war, but its effects would linger.

Perhaps the answer is TACO – Trump always chickens out.   His overheated impulse could give way to cold reality, repackaged as victory.