Trump yields to impulse, causes war
Expected patriotic reaction
Gordon L. Weil
The spreading effects of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran
reveal both President Trump’s impulse and the reflexive reaction to it.
Trump became committed to the attack thanks to the false confidence
he gained from his easy success in toppling Venezuela’s president and to unrelenting
pressure from Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, who argued that Iran was ripe
to end Ayatollah Khamenei’s theocratic rule and its regional terrorism.
By deploying a U.S. Navy armada to the region, Trump prepared
to deliver a quick and devastating blow to Iran. Not only could the anti-American regime be
toppled, but the liberated people of Iran could install a more democratic
government.
Enjoying almost unlimited power in the U.S., Trump would be
able single-handedly to bring peace to the Middle East. The Middle East would hail his efforts. By deploying the American power at his
disposal as commander in chief, he could gain a quick and positive outcome,
bringing himself great credit.
It’s no secret that Trump covets the Nobel Peace Prize. He defines peace as the absence of war, so
that if he can halt battlefield deaths, he should qualify. The creation of conditions to bring lasting
peace, while desirable, is not essential to the achievement. However, the Nobel Committee is unlikely to award
the Prize to a person who bombed his way to it.
Acceding to Israel’s sense of urgency ended the prospects of
a negotiated settlement with Iran, though its representatives said that an
agreement was at hand. While a
negotiated peace might achieve immediate objectives, especially on Iran’s
nuclear development, it would not bring regime change. Better to destroy its theocracy now than to
settle with it.
Trump’s impulse to build on Venezuela fed on itself. Lacking any military experience, he is
obviously impressed by the vast power at his disposal without understanding the
limits of purely armed power, especially in relying exclusively on aerial
attacks. He favored air power, because he
sought to avoid the political risks resulting from the direct deployment of ground
troops.
But his simple impulse caused Trump to ignore the potential
effects of his action within and beyond the borders of Iran. If the U.S. prevailed quickly, there would be
few downsides to his brief war. But the
war now drags on, and Trump makes no clear decision on what it will take to end
it. Israel keeps pushing for its
continuation.
Impulse ignored inflation.
Endangering the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran can control, the war has
driven up the price of oil. Americans pay
more at the gas pump and in the price of many goods. Strategic petroleum reserves must be drawn
down to deal with effects of an artificial emergency. Improving affordability and reversing inflation
are lost. Promises, promises.
Impulse ignored Iran’s ability to extend the war across the
Middle East, resulting in deaths of U.S. service personnel, while blindsiding and
harming the economies of friendly countries.
Iran was stronger than he thought and pursued a strategy that could deny
American victory.
Impulse ignored the need for the help and support of
European allies which had only recently been told that they did nothing for the
U.S. and weren’t important to American interests. They had stiffened their backs when he sought
to grab Greenland.
Impulse ignored faltering trust and confidence in the U.S.,
boosting the power of China and Russia.
The Iran war has created opportunities for them with no offsetting
American gains.
Trump claimed Iran posed a threat to the U.S. If an Iranian attack might happen at any
moment, instant action, without considering unintended consequences, might be
justified. No evidence was offered that
this threat was imminent, requiring an immediate preemptive strike.
By proclaiming an Iranian threat, the president asked
Americans to “rally round the flag.” The
country will support the president when meeting a real threat or attack. President G.W. Bush’s popularity had soared
when he responded to the 9/11 attacks.
Trump might transcend current political issues by issuing his alarm.
The American reflex is to drop partisanship in favor of
patriotism when faced with aggression. Members
of Congress feel they must show their loyalty to the country and to the
commander in chief. Their reflex can
unify the nation behind its leader. Their
conformity matters, and presidents count on it.
Many Republicans reflexively backed Trump, while Democrats
fumbled over a clear reaction, calling for more information and investigations. That sounds like action, but produces
nothing.
The U.S. finds itself in a costly war of questionable
necessity. If skepticism and doubts
about the war keep growing, Trump may be held to account by the voters. Worry about electoral blowback could end the
war, but its effects would linger.
Perhaps the answer is TACO – Trump always chickens out. His overheated impulse could give way to
cold reality, repackaged as victory.
