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Amerexit: Trump’s version of failed Brexit

You can’t go home again

 

Gordon L. Weil

Ten years ago, the British decided to leave the EU.  It was a bold but flawed move, and recovery will take many years, if ever.

The seeds that yielded Brexit have been planted on this side of the pond.  The U.S. version might be labelled Amerexit.  Britain left Europe; the U.S. is leaving the world. 

Brexit was driven by three forces – sovereignty, identity and history.   The U.S. is now being driven by the same forces.

In the British referendum, the majority opposed compromises with British sovereignty required by the EU’s rules and courts.  Reverence for the monarchy, though outmoded compared with other countries, promoted a sense of special status for its laws and customs.  England dominated the result, while Scotland and Northern Ireland rejected British exceptionalism.

The vast and unrestricted, EU single market gave British production access to a huge market, a real benefit to small businesses.  But a single market must have a single set of rules, and that took exclusive control away from Parliament and the U.K. courts.  That change was a price too high to pay, even if markets were lost.

Throughout its history, the U.S. has been reluctant to enter into international agreements that could limit its sovereignty.  It might accept accords only when they served American interests, and the U.S. could dominate.

NATO provided the U.S. a buffer against Soviet expansion and a guarantee that European nations would no longer drag it into war.  The organization, always led by the U.S., successfully served both purposes.  But its success led President Trump to mistakenly see it simply as a European plan for free-riding on American military protection.

Similarly, the U.N., created by an American initiative, aimed at reducing the chances of war, and maintained U.S. global influence.   It ended or contained some conflicts and provided humanitarian aid in line with U.S. priorities.

Trump’s policy is “America First,” and he seeks to quit international agreements.  Other countries see the policy as “America Alone,” a return to isolationism.  But Trump sees it as “America Only,” where others are expected to fall in line with unilateral U.S. policy, imposed by a superpower.  That explains his disappointment that NATO did not back his Iran war.

The EU requires the free movement of labor among its member countries, just as within the U.S.   But the Brexiteers worried about immigrants from Poland and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, who could undermine the essence of British identity.

U.S. opposition to immigration reflects a similar concern about new Americans changing the nation’s ethnic mix.  American identity has become more narrowly defined, while the flow of immigrants, legal or not, has slowed.

To maintain the U.S. as a white, Christian country, as he sees its historic origin, he prefers immigrants from Norway or the white population of South Africa over Muslims and people of color. 

The third focus might easily have been dominant, overriding any potential costs from Britain’s leaving Europe.  Great Britain was once among the world’s great powers.  Its empire extended around the globe.  It is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.  In a nation whose military has more royal parade horses than battle tanks, the trappings of empire still matter.

The EU thwarted recognition of British history.  As an historical great power, Britain might emerge again to rise above being a mere member of Europe’s club.  Its worldwide recognition could bring it trade deals that would surpass the gains from being an EU member. For Brexiteers, “Leave” meant gaining rightful independence, while “Remain” made that impossible

Britain simply could not get over its history and adhered to an exalted view of itself not shared by other.  To the leavers, the EU was a trade deal that came at too high a cost for a great country.

Trump’s Make American Great Again is much the same.  In his view, glorious days in America’s past must be recovered.  The country was “Great” and it should be great “Again.”  To achieve this goal, the tariff policy of President McKinley should be revived as should the territorial policy of President Polk.   Its view of itself is decreasingly shared by others.

Brexit is failing.  Trade did not grow.  Small businesses closed.  Prosperity did not occur. Immigrants from outside Europe entered to staff essential services, especially healthcare.  The military became almost irrelevant.  If Brexit is not yet a catastrophe, it is a serious handicap.

Amerexit is also beginning to fail.  Tariffs do not improve the trade balance.  The U.S. loses the support of traditional European allies, who are realizing the changing nature of war and the Russian threat.  The limitations of American power have become clear.  Domestically, government policies make personal lives more costly.

Brexit and Amerexit fail for the same reason – their failure to recognize and adjust to change. You can’t go home again.

  

Amerexit: Trump’s version of failed Brexit

 Amerexit: Trump’s version of failed Brexit

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The case for immigration; one country decides

 

The case for immigration; one country decides

Swiss voters speak

 

Gordon L. Weil

Mostly overlooked, a Swiss referendum this week made a major statement on immigration that will echo in the U.S. and Europe.  

The vote in Switzerland, a direct democracy where citizens regularly hold popular votes to decide public policy, is proof that immigration won’t go away as an issue, at least in North America and Europe. 

While President Trump has largely made good on his promise to close the door to new arrivals, his policy won’t be the last word.  The Swiss put the question starkly.

Voters were asked to decide if the small country should place a cap on its population.  As the ceiling neared, the government would have to limit immigration, even preventing divided families from re-uniting.  It might have to forego the benefits of access to the EU market if it blocked employment for workers from elsewhere in Europe.

The Swiss vote was a reminder of a key element of the British decision to quit the EU.  One of the prime causes of Brexit was the increase in foreign workers. The European arrivals would take jobs from Brits, it was claimed, and, after they settled, they would reshape the country’s culture, shedding Merrie Olde England and the moribund British Empire.

The pro-Brexit voters believed that their country’s greatness would enable it to profit from going it alone.  The loss of Europeans both in the labor force and in the consumer marketplace did not weigh heavily enough to influence the outcome.  While the British economy did not collapse as a result, its growth slowed.

In Switzerland, the issue was placed before the voters by the largest political party, a right-leaning organization that opposes immigration.  It made several economic arguments that were meant to show that new arrivals would place excessive strain on the country.

It argued that there would not be enough housing to handle additions to the population.  Rural areas would be increasingly “paved over” to accommodate urbanization.  The schools would be stretched and the quality of education would decline.  And there would not be enough support personnel, like doctors, to handle the increase.

These comments assumed that Switzerland could not grow to accept a continual increase in its population.  The proponents did not consider that contributions, professional and financial, that immigrants could make would allow the national economy to grow.  Their position amounted to saying that the country could not prosper if it had a larger population.

The government expressed its opinion, opposing the initiative because it would harm the national economy. It argued that national prosperity would suffer if the country lacked enough labor to maintain and increase production.  Health care and construction, both dependent on foreign workers, would suffer.

The Swiss economy depends on links with other economies, notably the EU.  Ending immigration could isolate the country, potentially ending several international agreements.  The analysis also showed that immigrants contribute more to the economy than the demands placed by them on social welfare programs.

This debate has direct parallels with politics in Britain and the United States.  In Switzerland, under direct democracy, the people themselves got to decide, not politicians seeking to create and exploit fears.

The cap was opposed 55% to 45%.  The electoral defeat came because the large urban areas strongly opposed the proposal to limit population. The Swiss Confederation is divided into state-like “cantons,” and cantons like Zurich and Geneva favored immigration.  Small, rural cantons opposed.  It was the kind of rural-urban, conservative-moderate split seen in American politics.

The result may be explained by more than economic issues.  Proponents also cited the increase in the number of Muslims, making discrimination a factor.

The Swiss referendum reflected a debate about the nature of the world’s economies.  Nations may be so interconnected that the movement of workers is not a diabolical threat, as some claim, but an inevitable effect of the new economic links that extend well beyond national borders.

Nor is immigration the result of a globalization plot, designed to destroy national economies and turn power over to hidden economic rulers.   Supply lines that cross borders and workers whose skills offer value beyond their home countries are organic developments, not the result of sinister schemes.

The Swiss government opinion pointed out that approving the proposal would damage the country’s reputation, which is partly based on its creation and operation of the International Red Cross.  By capping its population, “Switzerland would isolate itself and lose its credibility,” it said.

This is the message of the Swiss referendum for the U.S., as it pursues an America First policy. The Swiss think as highly of themselves as do Americans.  Just as the U.S. serves as a constitutional and economic model, Switzerland serves as a humanitarian and democratic model.

Preserving national “credibility” and its thriving economy should be as important to the U.S. as it is to Switzerland.